China’s Shifting Demographic Geography

This monograph identifies key changes (trends, abrupt changes) in the 21st Century spatial distribution of the Chinese population, based primarily on absolute and relative changes between the 2010 (6th) and 2020 (7th) censuses. The researchers also refer to the 2000 (5th) census, included in their overall data base. Other data bases, e.g., GDP growth by province, climate, transportation networks, are referenced to provide possible explanation to shifts in population described.

This monograph is intended as a base document in support of research to better explain the changes noted, and provide policy support to spatial policies. The overall picture that emerges is one of a spatial demographic system in considerable flux despite restraining factors such as the hukou system, still modest amenity migration, etc., counterbalanced by a lessening in importance of explicit place prosperity policies. This spatial dynamism is occurring in the context of significant demographic change underway in the 2010-2020 period, namely accelerated absolute decline in the rural population and working age population. A historical demographic change will occur in the first half of the 2020-2030 inter-census period, namely the absolute decline of China’s total population, which will result in absolute aggregate urban population decline by mid-Century