The introduction of land titling programs to the informal land market seemed to offer a magic solution to the problem of poverty in third world countries. Various governments breathed a sigh of relief, as the struggle to reduce poverty would no longer require the complex and stressful income redistribution measures that always cause conflicts between social groups and classes. According to this magic formula, all that was required was for informal urban dwellers (about 50 percent of the population in the major cities) to formally register their properties and thus gain access to title deeds, so they could obtain mortgage loans from private banks. Their titles and newfound access to loans would enable them to increase their real estate capital, improve their homes and develop small businesses (de Soto 1986; 2001).

To put this hypothesis to the test, and at the request of Perú’s National Institute of Statistics and Data Processing (Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas e Informática–INEI), I conducted a study of the official real estate registration policy under which more than one million title deeds were conferred in Perú between 1996 and 2000. This policy was implemented by the Commission for the Official Registration of Informal Property (COFOPRI) and the Real Estate Registry of Urban Settlements (RPU). As stated in Perú’s Law Decree 803 of March 1996, the purpose of this policy was to establish a formal relationship between the distribution of land titles, access to formal credit mechanisms and better standards of living. Based on information provided by National Household Surveys (ENAHO) for 1998 and 1999, conducted by INEI, my study analyzed data on housing that either was acquired through invasions or other illegal means and did not have property titles or had obtained titles from COFOPRI through the regularization process. The data base consisted of 913,335 units in 1998 and 1,033,480 in 1999, out of a total of 3,572,091 urban housing units for both years. The financing obtained for housing expansion and other domestic expenses was used as an indicator to determine the access to credit, whereas the structure of the dwelling and the supply of basic services were used to determine standards of living.

Those who advocate the regularization of property in Perú argue that property titles should be granted on a large scale by recognizing informal occupation (that is, legalizing land ownership), awarding registered land title deeds, and thus establishing the links needed to gain access to formal credit mechanisms. Official registration is the legal procedure whereby actual rights to a property result in legal ownership. A particular characteristic of this procedure is the firm resolve to establish connections between the legalization of land and property and the access to mortgages through the private banks. As described by the Path to Property Association, an organization dedicated to promoting these policies worldwide, the basic philosophy behind the formal registration process is that prosperity in countries with market economies is largely achieved because those societies have adequate property systems that enable their markets to operate through exchangeable ownership rights in a wide-ranging market.

To grant landowners indisputable proof of ownership and protect them from fraud and uncertainty ownership rights must be standardized, and universally accessible exchange instruments must be registered in a central government system by legal norms and regulation. Consequently, through the official registration of property, the “energy” of the informal sector can be channeled toward organized and prosperous market economies. From this perspective, informality is merely the inability of governments to make their laws coincide with the real circumstances under which people work and live. Nevertheless, this viewpoint fails to reduce a complex phenomenon to its legal dimension and neglects its economic aspects.

Land Titling Policy and Outcomes

To speed up the distribution of land titles and to avoid troublesome formalities, COFOPRI took over this responsibility from the municipalities. The World Bank supported this policy, granting COFOPRI a US$38 million loan in December 1998. Between 1996 and 2000, 1,134,000 duly registered land title deeds were awarded: 645,165 of them in Lima, 112,631 in Arequipa and 74,180 in Trujillo (the first, second and third largest cities in Perú, respectively). In terms of the distribution and registration of land titles, the success of the formal registration policy is undeniable. However, the fact that municipalities were removed from the process is questionable, since their legal role in the urban system was undermined.

A close connection between the official registration of property and the standard of living was observed in Lima after the policy was implemented. Between 1998 and 1999, regularized (formerly illegal or informal) housing in the capital city showed improved construction of walls, floors and roofing; however, the nonregularized housing units also had improved construction of walls and floors. In the rest of the country, informal housing in urban areas predominates over regularized housing.

While regularized housing units outside Lima increased from 17,929 to 48,869 between 1998 and 1999, the number of units still without property titles increased from 371,005 to 392,436, indicating the persistence of invasion mechanisms. The gaps between different types of improvements on regularized and informal houses outside Lima increased between 1998 and 1999 for most categories (see Table 1).

Looking at the relationship between official land titles and access to credit, the study found that of the 70,725 houses in Lima awarded land title deeds by COFOPRI in 1998, about 23,965 (34 percent) of those homeowners gained access to varied types of financing, such as loans from banks, lending agencies or family members, to improve or renovate their homes. In 1999, the owners of about 23,804 (18.3 percent) out of a total of 129,588 titled houses obtained such financing. Although there is no official information on how many homeowners applied for credit and were denied, this result proves that officially registered households that gain access to loans are a minority and, in fact, the number has decreased. This situation is explained by complex factors including the economic recession, the default rate of 10 percent on private bank loans, fear of giving loans to lower-income sectors, and fear among these residents of mortgaging their houses and land.

Similarly, the number of bank loans to already titled landowners in Lima decreased from 12,750 in 1998 to 8,993 in 1999. In contrast, the use of own resources to finance housing improvements rose from 12,282 in 1998 to 14,811 in 1999. Not only is a larger majority spending their own funds on housing, but they are facing more difficulties in gaining access to credit institutions, despite the formal registration of their properties. A study by COFOPRI-DESCO (Riofrío 2001) identified several characteristics of those who are willing to take mortgages:

• Stable nuclear families;
• Both husband and wife are wage-earners;
• Entrepreneurial mentality and willingness to take risks;
• Have self-owned businesses (microbusinesses, taxis, etc.); and
• Have information on the use of the Urban Land Registry.

Of the 12,750 households officially registered and regularized in Lima in 1998 that also received bank loans for renovations and improvements, 52.6 percent obtained their loans from the Banco de Materiales and 47.4 percent from the National Construction Company (ENACE). In 1999, 8,993 officially registered and regularized households received loans for renovations and improvements, 7,593, or 84.43 percent from the Banco de Materiales and 15.57 percent from the ENACE. Since these are both public entities that grant subsidized loans (at the same annual interest rate of 7 percent), there is no connection between the official registration of property through regularization programs and access to loans from private banks.

With respect to seeking financing for other kinds of household expenses, only 11,323 (8.7 percent) out of a total of 129,588 households registered in Lima in 1999 resorted to any kind of financial assistance. Since no public entity provides loans for these expenses, most households receive money from friends and relatives (47 percent) or other sources such as lending agencies (25 percent). Only 28 percent of these 11,323 registered households gained access to loans from private banks for household needs.

In other urban areas, the situation of officially registered households is different from Lima’s experience. In 1998, the use of the households’ own funds for housing improvements predominated over bank loans (78.7 percent compared with 21.2 percent), whereas in 1999 bank loans predominated over own funds (51.3 percent compared with 42.9 percent). In 1998, all of the loans were public loans granted by Banco de Materiales, and 93 percent were from that source in 1999. With respect to loans for other household expenses, 6,163 (13 percent) of the total of 47,302 households officially registered during 1999 received some financing. Of this small group, 45 percent received financial assistance from lending agencies and other sources, 34 percent from friends and relatives, and 21 percent from their employers or work centers. None of them obtained funds from private banks.

Conclusions

The study yielded the following conclusions with regard to the relationship between official registration of titles and access to credit:

• In general, and despite the increase in the number of properties regularized between 1998 and 1999, access to loans decreased during that period, coinciding with the economic recession and related problems affecting private banks.
• The use of personal resources predominates over bank loans as a source of funds for the expansion of both regularized and informal housing. Loans for other household expenses are obtained mainly from relatives and friends, followed by private banks and informal lending systems. Lower-income families primarily use their own funds or those of social networks for improvements to both regularized and informal housing; resources from formal public or private institutions are secondary.
• Surprisingly, informal households gain more access to loans from private banks than do regularized households. For example, in 1999, 100 percent of loans for improvements to housing units regularized by COFOPRI in Lima were public loans, thus none received private loans, whereas 28 percent of nonregularized housing units did obtain private loans. This suggests that the eligibility criteria used by private banks is based on job stability and fixed monthly income, rather than on land tenancy. The information obtained from ENAHO shows that in 1998, 25 percent of families living in informal dwellings earned about US$747.50 per month. This is the equivalent of “6 to 7 minimum monthly wages,” a frequently used measure for salaries for lower-income sectors in Latin American countries. In contrast, only 12 percent of families living in officially registered properties regularized by COFOPRI earned a comparable salary. This paradoxical situation, whereby title holders do not have access to private banks, while those without titles have higher incomes and better access to loans, may be explained by the fact that COFOPRI, seeking to grant a large number of titles quickly and to create political impact, concentrated its efforts in newer, fragmented neighborhoods where it was easier to identify the landowners. In contrast, COFOPRI tended to ignore older and more close-knit neighborhoods where it was harder to identify the owners due to the presence of multiple generations living under the same roof.
• In the case of both regularized and informal properties, the main sources of loans were public entities that grant subsidized loans (i.e., Banco de Materiales).

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Thus, there is no direct relationship between the number of title deeds handed over to informal dwellers and their subsequent access to loans from private banks. This conclusion was confirmed when the transition government that succeeded former President Fujimori (1990-2000) revealed in 2001 that only 12,388 mortgages had been recorded in the RPU throughout the country, which is equivalent to only 5 percent of potential beneficiaries. Although registration facilities may be useful, they are certainly not sufficient to increase access to credit. Effective policies require an in-depth study of a number of different factors, including:

• The policies on which private bank loans are based. Discriminatory policies (redlining, etc.) are prevalent in Latin America, as in the U.S.
• The popular credit culture, particularly as regards poor people’s fear of losing their property (which is virtually their only asset), as well as the lack of understanding of concepts of property titles, credit and even banks. It’s important to study the patterns of cultural inertia that are put to the test by this type of policies and consider the opportunities for education that could facilitate these processes.
• The reluctance of people to register their properties and use the registries. The intention of this article, and the research behind it, is not to minimize the importance of policies aimed at facilitating access to credit by the poor by means of regularization programs. On the contrary, such policies are important and should be stimulated, although we would not suggest urban poverty can be resolved exclusively through this means. For the system to improve, it is essential to have a better understanding of the credit system and the popular credit culture, as well as to develop financial assistance programs that address the current resistance to the use of mortgages by both the poor and the banking sector.

Julio Calderón Cockburn is a sociologist and a Ph.D. candidate at the University of San Marcos in Lima, Perú. He has written many books and articles published in the Americas and Europe, and he currently works as an independent consultant and university professor. He is a faculty associate of the Lincoln Institute, which supported the study reported here and other research and teaching projects in the past. Several of his written works are available on the Lincoln Institute website in the Latin America section under LAC Papers (www.lincolninst.edu).

References

Calderón Cockburn, Julio A. 2001. Comparative analysis of the benefited and non-benefited population by the national formalization plan. In Has the well-being of the population improved?: A balance of the main social policies and programs. Lima: National Institute of Statistics and Data Processing (INEI): 65-92. de Soto, Hernando. 1986. The Other Path. London: I.B. Tauris & Co. Ltd.

_____. 2002. The Mystery of Capital. London: Bantam Press.

Fernandes, Edesio. 2002. The influence of de Soto’s The Mystery of Capital. Land Lines 14 (1): 5–8.

Riofrío, G., J. Calderón y M. Zolezzi. 2001. Estudio sobre cultura registral. Lima: COFOPRI-DESCO. Agosto.

Una versión más actualizada de este artículo está disponible como parte del capítulo 5 del libro Perspectivas urbanas: Temas críticos en políticas de suelo de América Latina.

Pocos países de América Latina (o del resto del mundo) se han atrevido a poner en práctica reformas tan radicales de la política de tierras urbanas como lo ha hecho Chile en los últimos 20 años. En 1979 el gobierno comenzó a aplicar las políticas de desregulación mediante la publicación de un documento donde se establecía que la escasez de la tierra era un producto artificial de la excesiva regulación, que había llevado a la virtual eliminación de los límites de crecimiento urbano.

Desde entonces ha habido cambios numerosos en la morfología y estructura interna de las ciudades chilenas, pero la evaluación de dichos cambios varía según la posición ideológica de quien evalúa. Si bien las políticas urbanas explícitas de orientación social han propiciado un mejoramiento significativo en lo que se refiere al acceso a la vivienda para la población de bajos recursos, algunas personas sostienen que la segregación espacial derivada de tales políticas ha perjudicado a la sociedad al indirectamente disminuir la calidad de vida, impedir el acceso al trabajo y agravar la alienación social.

Incluso antes del período del gobierno militar de 1973 a 1990, Chile estaba reconocido por su sistema político unitario y centralista, caracterizado por una fuerte presencia del Estado en la economía y la política. Esta sociedad con cultura relativamente homogénea se diferencia de otros países latinoamericanos por su fuerte tradición legalista. De la misma manera, las ciudades chilenas exhiben marcados contrastes cuando se las compara con sus homólogas latinoamericanas. Prácticamente no hay mercados de tierra informales; la tenencia de la tierra ha sido casi completamente regularizada mediante programas públicos radicales; y la mayoría de los pobres urbanos viven en áreas urbanizadas cuyas calles principales están pavimentadas. La violencia urbana, a pesar de su tendencia creciente, es aún mínima si se la compara con el resto del continente.

Políticas y problemas de la liberalización

Entre los aspectos más innovadores de la política urbana chilena figuran los siguientes:

• La eliminación de límites al crecimiento urbano, manteniendo al mismo tiempo la designación de áreas sensibles para la protección ambiental. Esta medida tuvo dos propósitos: delegar un papel de liderazgo en el desarrollo urbano y uso de la tierra a las fuerzas del mercado, y reducir los precios del suelo.
• El establecimiento de un sistema de subsidios con el objetivo de reducir el déficit de vivienda. Considerado por muchos como el pilar de la política habitacional de Chile, el sistema de subsidios es ampliamente percibido como la síntesis original y más innovadora de las políticas de liberalización con la tradición estadista de Chile. A través de este programa se canalizan subsidios sustanciales a familias (mediante la asignación de cupones o vouchers por puntajes, basada en los ingresos familiares, estructura familiar, capacidad de ahorro demostrada, y condición de vivienda actual) a fin de financiar una vivienda facilitada por el sector privado según ciertos criterios preestablecidos. Como resultado, Chile se ha destacado por ser el único país de la América Latina en donde, desde 1992, el aumento de viviendas nuevas ha sido más acelerado que la formación de nuevos hogares, lo cual ha eliminado gradualmente el déficit habitacional.
• El desalojo de los asentamientos pobres de áreas de altos recursos, y otras políticas evidentemente segregacionistas. No muchos países se atreverían hoy en día a poner en práctica tales políticas, que sin duda suscitarían una fuerte oposición en sociedades menos autocráticas que reconocen como legítimos los derechos de sus habitantes pobres.

Si bien, algunos de los logros de estas políticas de liberalización se han reconocido ampliamente como positivos -particularmente en lo que se refiere a la regularización legal y física o urbanística y la cantidad de vivienda social proporcionada- muchos chilenos creen que las políticas de los últimos 20 años han sido una fuente de nuevos problemas, entre ellos:

• Una expansión urbana desenfrenada, con sus consiguientes efectos de aumento de tráfico y peligrosos niveles de contaminación del aire. Como ejemplo, los niveles de contaminación del aire en Santiago son equivalentes a los de ciudades tres veces mayores tales como Ciudad de México y São Paulo, incluso con un uso relativamente bajo del automóvil.
• La formación de vecindades de bajos recursos, pobremente equipadas y socialmente segregadas. En el contexto de una creciente inseguridad económica y laboral, estas áreas se convierten en un núcleo de problemas sociales como drogadicción y delincuencia, apatía y alienación juvenil1. Cualquier visitante a Santiago, la capital chilena, no puede dejar de notar el marcado contraste entre las comunas2 -jurisdicciones planificadas y pudientes tales como Las Condes-, y la monotonía de vecindades desarrolladas por constructores privados en comunas periféricas, como Maipú y La Florida.
• El aumento continuo del precio de la tierra. En contraposición a las predicciones hechas por los responsables de las políticas de liberalización, el precio del suelo chileno ha aumentado, absorbiendo una porción aun mayor del programa de subsidio habitacional3. Algunos analistas aseveran que los precios de la tierra ya corresponden a un 60 a 100 por ciento del subsidio. Esto no sólo está seriamente comprometiendo la capacidad de sustentación del sistema de vouchers, sino que está forzando a los sectores más pobres fuera del programa. No obstante, estos aumentos en los precios de la tierra no deberían sorprender, si se piensa en las experiencias similares de otros países donde las políticas de liberalización han influido en las expectativas de demandas futuras de alternativas más baratas de desarrollo en la periferia urbana, como alternativa a los centros congestionados.

No está claro si estos cambios urbanos pueden atribuirse directamente a la eficacia de las políticas urbanas de mercado, o a la positiva evolución de la economía chilena en general. El crecimiento sostenido del producto interno bruto (GDP), con un promedio del 7 % anual desde 1985, se interrumpió sólo recientemente debido a los efectos de la crisis asiática.

Expansión del debate

A pesar de que la liberalización de los mercados de suelo urbano en Chile constituye una experiencia interesante e innovadora desde un punto de vista internacional, el debate público interno ha sido limitado. No obstante, los logros y problemas de la liberalización han llegado a tal punto de importancia que últimamente han estimulado un nivel generalizado de preocupación y una variedad de planteamientos al respecto. Más aún, el gobierno está proponiendo una serie de modificaciones de la actual “Ley General de Urbanismo y Construcciones”, que traerían consigo un número de cambios significativos, entre ellos:

• Ampliación de las responsabilidades de planificación urbana, las cuales tendrían que contemplar todos los espacios del territorio (no solamente las áreas urbanizadas dentro de cada municipalidad, como se hace en la actualidad), y
• La aplicación de una serie de regulaciones económicas o de mercado tales como la emisión de “certificados de constructibilidad” especiales, diseñados para conservar el patrimonio arquitectónico del país, y la creación de “zonas de desarrollo urbano condicionado” para favorecer esquemas mixtos de uso del suelo.Pese a la importancia que tienen estas potenciales modificaciones sobre la planificación futura, todavía no ha habido una discusión cabal sobre las mismas. La propuesta legislativa no contempla consideraciones teóricas ni explicaciones justificativas de los cambios propuestos.

Con el fin de facilitar una discusión concentrada en los temas anteriores, Carlos Montes, Presidente de la Cámara de Diputados de Chile, invitó al Instituto Lincoln a participar en un seminario coordinado con el Instituto de Estudios Urbanos de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. El seminario, llamado “A 20 años de la liberalización de los mercados de suelo urbano en Chile: Impactos en la política de vivienda social, el crecimiento urbano y los precios del suelo”, tuvo lugar en octubre de 1999 en la ciudad de Santiago. Allí se reunieron miembros del Congreso chileno y de la comunidad comercial (promotores, líderes financieros, etc.), oficiales de organismos públicos (ministerios, municipalidades, etc.), académicos y representantes de organizaciones no gubernamentales para participar en un animado debate. En la discusión se notó una marcada polarización ideológica entre las metodologías “liberal” y “progresiva” utilizadas para entender y resolver los asuntos de la liberalización, es decir, “más mercado” frente a “más Estado”.

Desde el punto de vista liberal4, estos problemas emergen y persisten debido a que los mercados de tierra no han sido nunca suficientemente liberalizados. De hecho, algunos liberales insisten en que la intervención pública no desapareció nunca, y creen que la regulación más bien aumentó después de que Chile retornara a la democracia en 1990. Por ejemplo, los liberales citan varios medios, a menudo indirectos, que utiliza el Estado para restringir el libre crecimiento de las ciudades, tales como cuando se intenta ampliar áreas designadas con protección ambiental y cerradas a usos urbanos, o se impone un criterio oficial y casi homogéneo de densificación para todo espacio urbano. También aseveran que los ciudadanos deberían tener la libertad de elegir diferentes estilos de vida, y que las autoridades deberían limitarse a informar a los ciudadanos sobre el costo privado y social de sus opciones, con el entendimiento implícito de que tales costos están reflejados en los precios del mercado cuando hay un funcionamiento eficaz de los mercados de suelo urbano, es decir, cuando están completamente liberalizados.

La principal explicación ofrecida por los liberales sobre los problemas de equidad y eficiencia que enfrenta el desarrollo urbano chileno actual son los avances insuficientes en la aplicación de criterios para “internalizar las externalidades”, particularmente externalidades negativas, por aquellos que son responsables por ellas. Tal como lo han clamado apasionadamente algunos de los representantes de este grupo, se debería permitir a los agentes privados actuar con libertad, siempre que éstos estén dispuestos a hacerse cargo de los costos sociales involucrados.

Por otra parte, los progresistas creen que la liberalización se ha excedido en su abordaje de mercado y ha dejado muchos problemas sin resolver, tales como el aumento en los precios del suelo; los problemas en la calidad y durabilidad de la vivienda; las condiciones de servicio de la tierra; los problemas sociales asociados con la pobreza urbana; y los problemas de eficiencia y equidad derivados de los patrones de crecimiento de las ciudades, p. ej., la disparidad entre áreas dotadas de servicios públicos y las localidades seleccionadas para proyectos privados de desarrollo.

Estas críticas reconocen la naturaleza imperfecta de los mercados urbanos y la necesidad de tener mayores niveles de control e intervención. Entre las formas de intervención recomendadas por muchos progresistas se encuentran los instrumentos de captura de plusvalía, los cuales raramente han sido empleados o incluso contemplados en programas de financiamiento para la provisión pública de nueva infraestructura y nuevos servicios urbanos. La creación de tales mecanismos apoyaría la idea de internalizar las externalidades, un punto de relativo consenso entre progresistas y liberales. La diferencia principal es que los liberales restringirían la captura de plusvalía a la recuperación pública de costos específicos, mientras que los progresistas considerarían el derecho a capturar la plusvalía entera que resulte de cualquier acción pública, bien sea como resultado de inversión como de regulación.

En términos más generales, los progresistas claman que no todo puede medirse estrictamente en términos monetarios. Hay valores y objetivos urbanos relacionados con la política pública que no pueden conseguirse a través del mercado, ni siquiera por ley, tal como el sentido de comunidad. Aunque mayormente se le desatiende en las nuevas opciones habitacionales facilitadas por promotores privados a familias de bajos recursos, tales como el sistema de vouchers, la solidaridad comunitaria es un asunto de enorme importancia para contrarrestar los problemas sociales que la segregación espacial tiende a exacerbar. La protección ambiental es otro ejemplo de un objetivo de política urbana para el cual las “etiquetas de precios” son de dudosa eficacia.

Con respecto al crecimiento libre de las ciudades y la idea de respetar las opciones para sus ciudadanos, los progresistas apuntan los fuertes costos ambientales y sociales que normalmente acompañan el crecimiento descontrolado. También hacen notar el hecho de que el único grupo que realmente puede elegir su estilo de vida a través del mercado es la minoría pudiente. Si bien conceden que hay beneficios en la concentración, los progresistas también expresan sus inquietudes sobre el exceso de densificación. Algunos chilenos han expresado interés en una autoridad metropolitana que maneje los asuntos regionales, y también en el uso de inversión en infraestructura pública como forma de orientar el crecimiento.

Las respuestas adecuadas a estos asuntos y perspectivas implican algo que va más allá de soluciones técnicas o fiscales, tales como el punto al cual los promotores realmente pagan por el costo total de los cambios que imponen en la sociedad (para no hablar del problema de evaluar los costos con precisión) o la sustentación del sistema de vouchers bajo demanda, que constituye la base de la política habitacional de Chile. Las soluciones también involucran inquietudes de mayor amplitud y con más contenido valórico, tales como los costos ambientales del crecimiento descontrolado y la importancia de mantener las identidades e iniciativas comunitarias locales. La discusión continúa en el Congreso y en otros entornos, pero es de esperar que pase un tiempo antes de que los bandos opuestos lleguen al consenso.

Martim O. Smolka es Senior Fellow y Director del Programa para América Latina del Instituto Lincoln. Francisco Sabatini es profesor asistente de la Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Otros contribuyentes a este artículo fueron Laura Mullahy, asistente de investigación, y Armando Carbonell, Senior Fellow, ambos del Instituto Lincoln.

Notas: En contraste con el resto del continente, las drogas no eran un problema mayor en Chile hasta hace poco tiempo.

2 El área metropolitana de Santiago se compone de 35 jurisdicciones administrativo-políticas independientes llamadas comunas.

3 Véase Gareth A. Jones, “Comparative Policy Perspectives on Urban Land Market Reform”, Land Lines, noviembre de 1998.

4 El uso del término “liberal” en este contexto corresponde a su connotación en Chile, la cual se refiere a la fuerte influencia del principio económico del libre mercado, tal como la aboga la teoría desarrollada por la Escuela de Chicago.

Fuentes: Francisco Sabatini y colaboradores, “Segregación social en Santiago, Chile: Conceptos, métodos y efectos urbanos” (monografía, 1999); y Secretaría Ejecutiva de la Comisión de Planificación de Inversiones en Infraestructura de Transporte (SECTRA), “Encuesta de recorridos de origen y destino en Santiago”(1991).

The complexity that characterizes the interaction of transportation and land use in urban areas is matched by the variety of the disciplines called on to address these issues, including economics, urban planning and civil engineering. In recent decades, communication among scholars in these disciplines has improved and the acceptance of a common base of theory and method, based on economics, is increasing. The Taxation, Resources and Economic Development (TRED) conference on “Transportation and Land Use” held at the Lincoln Institute in October 1996 focused on these issues. Ten papers presented at that conference are now published in a special issue of the journal Urban Studies. The papers are organized into four groups as summarized below.

Trends in Urban Development

Gregory Ingram’s paper on “Metropolitan Development: What Have We Learned?” documents the worldwide prevalence of several trends that characterize modern urbanization. Employment decentralization and the emergence of multiple employment centers in large metropolitan areas are observed worldwide in both developing and developed countries. Although employment continues to be more centralized than population, the typical Central Business District does not contain more than about 20 percent of jobs, and much smaller percentages are common in the U.S. Manufacturing employment has become more decentralized than service employment. Decentralization has reduced traffic congestion and travel distances and has contributed to a weakening of transit systems. The increased affordability of motorized transportation worldwide has led to more trip-making, with work trips typically being less than a third of all trips in urbanized areas.

Peter Gordon, Harry Richardson and Gang Yu find evidence that the suburbanization and exurbanization of employment in the U.S. has picked up its pace since 1988. In their paper, “Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Employment Trends in the U.S.: Recent Evidence and Implications,” they argue that the ability of manufacturing and even of services to locate in exurban and rural areas, shunning inner-suburban and central city locations, is a consequence of the continued weakening of the agglomeration economies that shaped the now outdated downtown-oriented city.

Robert Cervero and Kang-Li Wu examine the relationship between average commuting distance and employment subcentering in their paper, “Subcentering and Commuting: Evidence from the San Francisco Bay Area, 1980-1990.” They are concerned with changes in employment densities in 22 employment subcenters and with the commuting distances and travel times of those employed in these subcenters. The authors find that employment densities have increased more in the outlying suburban centers and that commuting to these centers has experienced modal shifts away from transit and in favor of the automobile. According to their data, while jobs in these centers grew by 18 percent during the decade, average one-way commuting distances to these 22 subcenters increased by 12 percent, and average one-way travel times rose by only 5 percent.

These findings are consistent with theory: with the number of subcenters fixed and the degree of spatial mismatch between jobs and housing invariant with job growth, an increase in the number of jobs in each subcenter should result in longer commutes on average. If new subcenters are spawned in between existing ones or new ones develop in outlying areas-something that does not appear to have occurred in the Bay Area-then average commutes should decrease. The 22 subcenters account for less than half of total employment in the Bay Area, the rest of the jobs being broadly dispersed throughout. Because such dispersed employment is not included in their study, we do not know about the total effect of job decentralization on average commute distances and times.

Genevieve Giuliano’s paper, “Information Technology, Work Patterns and Intrametropolitan Location: A Case Study,” examines the impact of information technology, including the advent of fax machines, computers, modems and the internet. One of her central observations is that while the U.S. labor force increased by 14 percent from 1980 to 1990, the “contingent workforce,” a diverse group of temporary workers, part-time workers, the self-employed and business service workers, increased much faster, from about 25 to 33 percent.

This trend implies that the information revolution is causing structural shifts in the labor force as more and more workers offer temporary services to a variety of employers and, as a result, do not have a long-term attachment to any one employer. Theory suggests that such workers should locate in a way that is sensitive to their expected accessibility to jobs. Also, the advent of information technology should facilitate “telecommuting,” thus reducing the need for physical proximity to jobs.

Giuliano uses the 1990 U.S. Census Public Use Microsample for the Los Angeles region to compare the residential location and commuting patterns of contingent and non-contingent workers. The socioeconomic complexity of contingent workers makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions, but Guiliano does find that those contingent workers who live in suburban areas are likely to live in high amenity areas. Controlling for socioeconomic factors, commuting distances are shorter for part-time workers than they are for full-time workers, and among full-time workers the self-employed have the shortest commutes.

Agglomeration Economies

The next two papers offer empirical contributions on intra-urban employment agglomeration. “Spatial Variation in Office Rents within the Atlanta Region,” by Christopher Bollinger, Keith Ihlanfeldt and David Bowes, is a hedonic rent study for office buildings in the Atlanta area from 1990 to 1996. The authors find that part of the rent differences among office buildings is due to differences in wage rates, transportation rates and proximity to concentrations of office workers. More importantly, the convenience of face-to-face meetings facilitated by office agglomerations is also reflected in office rents, providing evidence that agglomerative tendencies continue to be important in explaining office concentrations, despite the ability of information technology to reduce the need for some such contacts. In their paper, “Population Density in Suburban Chicago: A Bid-Rent Approach,” Daniel McMillen and John McDonald show that population density patterns in the Chicago MSA are strongly influenced by proximity to subcenters, which include the Central Business District, O’Hare Airport and 16 other centers. Site-specific variables such as access to commuter rail stations or highway interchanges have smaller influences on population densities.

Travel Behavior and Residential Choice

Among the challenges posed by the evolving trends in transportation and land use is a better explanation of the role of non-work travel in residential location decisionmaking. Motorized mobility has greatly increased non-work travel, thus weakening the relevance of the now classical commuting-based theory of residential location. While information technology may result in more telecommuting, the importance of non-work travel relative to work travel may grow even more in the future.

Two papers attempt to develop new techniques that can be used to explain the influence of non-work travel behavior on residential location and land use patterns, and vice versa. Central to this research is the notion that when a household makes a residential choice decision it will consider the pattern of non-work trips its members are likely to make. Accessibility to non-work opportunities is likely to be important and, for many households, perhaps more important than accessibility to jobs.

Moshe Ben-Akiva and John Bowman model the probability of choosing a residential location by treating the non-work trip patterns and activity schedules of the household’s members as explanatory variables. Their model allows the treatment of trips as tours with stops at multiple destinations. In their paper, “Integration of an Activity-Based Model System and a Residential Location Model,” the authors report that their model does not fit the data as well as a work-trip-based comparison model. But, the non-work accessibility measures are more appealing conceptually and allow a richer set of predictions and simulations to be made.

Until recently, economists have suppressed the importance of non-work trips in their theories of land use. Planners have viewed land use planning as a tool that can affect behavior and travel demand. But what is the evidence that travel patterns can be influenced meaningfully by manipulating land use at the neighborhood level or in a larger area?

Marlon Boarnet and Sharon Sarmiento tackle this question by means of a travel diary survey of Southern California residents. Their paper is titled “Can Land Use Policy Really Affect Travel Behavior? A Study of the Link Between Non-work Travel and Land Use Characteristics.” The number of work trips made by residents is explained by sociodemographic variables describing the residents and by land use characteristics describing their place of residence. Generally, the land use variables describing the neighborhood are not statistically significant, but future studies could follow this approach by trying more complex specifications and using better data.

Jobs-Housing Mismatch

As first stated by John Kain in 1968, the “spatial mismatch hypothesis” claimed that black central city residents are increasingly at a disadvantage economically as jobs disperse to the suburbs. Many suburban governments limit the quantity of high-density/low-income housing, forcing workers to make long, expensive commutes. Although there is a wealth of empirical work on the mismatch hypothesis, Richard Arnott’s paper, “Economic Theory and the Mismatch Hypothesis,” is one of the first attempts to formulate a microeconomic theory of the mismatch problem. In Arnott’s model, jobs flee to the suburbs because of the advent of international trade (relaxation of global trade barriers) and the emergence of suburban-based inter-city truck transport after World War II. At the same time, large-lot zoning and discrimination in suburban housing markets force minorities to reside in central cities. An increase in the cost of commuting effectively lowers the wage paid to low-skilled labor from the city.

In “Where Youth Live: Economic Effects of Urban Space on Employment Prospects,” John Quigley and Katherine O’Regan investigate how neighborhood of residence and access to jobs affect the employment prospects of minority youth. Black youth unemployment rates are higher in metropolitan areas where blacks are more isolated geographically. Controlling for socioeconomic characteristics, minority youth who have less residential exposure to whites are more likely to be unemployed. Finally, controlling for socioeconomic characteristics as well as residential exposure to whites, minority youth living in neighborhoods that are less accessible to jobs are more likely to be unemployed. While these findings support the mismatch hypothesis, they also suggest the importance of social networks and spatial search as important mechanisms in the intra-urban labor market.

Alex Anas, professor of economics at the State University of New York at Buffalo, was the editor of the special issue of Urban Studies (Vol. 35, No. 7, June 1998). The article and figures used in Land Lines are adapted with permission.

Note: Ben Chinitz, former director of research at the Institute, helped organize the 1996 TRED conference and the following colleagues served as discussants of the papers: James Follain, Vernon Henderson, Douglass Lee, Therese McGuire, Peter Mieszkowski, Edwin Mills, Sam Myers, Dick Netzer, Stephen Ross, Anita Summers, William Wheaton, Michelle White and John Yinger. The conference participants were saddened when news arrived that William Vickrey, who had been named a Nobel laureate in economics only a few days before, had passed away while traveling to the conference. Professor Vickrey had been a leading thinker on issues of transportation and land use and a regular attendee of previous TRED conferences. The special issue of Urban Studies based on the 1996 conference serves as a tribute to his memory.