Cities around the world are hard at work on traffic congestion. Boston is designing streets for a mix of bikes, pedestrians, buses, scooters, and cars, and creating special drop-off zones for Uber and Lyft in high-volume areas, such as around Fenway Park. But the task is about to get more complex, with the advent of driverless vehicles, delivery robots, and AI-enabled trackless trams—all of which will require a more wholesale physical transformation of the cityscape.

With shared autonomous mobility, travel lanes can be narrower, because vehicles can essentially tailgate each other. There will also almost certainly be less need for parking in downtowns, as self-driving cars will pick up and drop off and head to the next ride. Intersections will be reconfigured as traffic signals are guided by artificial intelligence.

It’s a big task with a lot of complexity—and no little uncertainty about what, exactly, will be needed in the years ahead. That’s where the emerging practice of scenario planning comes in, says Heather Hannon, who manages the scenario planning initiative at the Lincoln Institute. In this cutting-edge approach to urban planning, communities or regions construct and analyze multiple versions of the future, leaving ample room to change course as unexpected wrinkles arise.

In the past, cities have approached challenges in a more linear fashion. The solution to more cars and trucks, for example, might be a new freeway. Scenario planning allows for much more flexibility, as conditions warrant—without relying on interventions that are hard to alter. The approach also benefits from robust public participation in the planning process, Hannon says. Community input is critical to judge the merits of any major infrastructure scheme.

Scenario planning is being used not only in the design of future streetscapes, but in many other areas as well—importantly, in planning for climate change, where unknowns and uncertainty abound.

The Consortium for Scenario Planning offers a community of practice for planners, community leaders, and stakeholders of all kinds, including access to technical assistance, educational resources, and a network of fellow innovators. It recently held its annual conference in Hartford, Connecticut, and will hold a workshop in Vancouver, British Columbia.

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Learn More

We’re Redesigning Our Streetscape – but What If We’re Getting It All Wrong? (The Boston Globe)

Driverless Ed (Land Lines)

Scenario Planning: Embracing Uncertainty to Make Better Decisions (Policy Brief)

Thinking About the Unthinkable (TED Talk)

Photograph Credit: iStock / Getty Images Plus – JIRAROJ PRADITCHAROENKUL

What is the flood mitigation potential of urban parks in Houston? Could an urban growth boundary stop sprawl in the Buffalo-Niagara region? How do zoning regulations perpetuate racial inequality and poverty in Oakland? Academics and government officials explored these and other complex questions as part of The Place Database contest. The contest challenged researchers, policy makers, academics, and public officials to use maps created in The Place Database—a data visualization tool launched in 2017 by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and PolicyMap—as a basis to tell a story about a place or places.

The Place Database is built on the PolicyMap platform and enables users to map a broad array of indicators from housing prices to zoning. It is designed to be easy to use for academics, local governments, the general public, and journalists, regardless of their experience with tools like ArcGIS, according to Jenna DeAngelo, associate director of international and institute wide initiatives at the Lincoln Institute. Users can search U.S. geographies and select from a list of data layers, such as aggregate transportation costs or local revenue per pupil, and data points, including brownfield sites and structurally deficient bridges. The platform can zoom down to the block group level and draws on information from sources like the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Census Bureau.

In the past two years, the resource has been used in academic theses, as a tool for brokers and real estate agents, in curricula developed by the National Building Museum, and more. The most popular data layers include per capita income, median home value, and critical habitat, while the most frequently used data points have been LIHTCs, Brownfields, and FEMA floods.

The Lincoln Institute decided to host this contest to promote the tool and find out more about who was using the tool and how they were using it, DeAngelo said. It attracted over 40 submissions. A committee composed of Lincoln Institute and PolicyMap staff, a representative from the City of Cambridge GIS and Community Development departments, and a professor from Boston University reviewed the entries, selecting five winning projects and awarding $1,500 to each to develop a brief narrative using the maps that are now featured as use cases on the Lincoln Institute website.

One of the winning projects focused on housing in St. Louis, where the majority of affordable housing funded through the federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is concentrated in neighborhoods with extensive blight and vacancy and related poor health outcomes. Jason Whiteley, a research analyst at the St. Louis Planning and Urban Design Agency, used The Place Database to better understand what factors, such as restrictive single-family zoning in more affluent parts of the city, have created this current geographic distribution of LIHTC developments.

“We wanted to go beyond the standard talking points about siting affordable housing and look at a more local context and see what issues might impact siting decisions,” Whitley said. “This mapping exercise allowed us to see where the LIHTCs fall against a host of variables, such as vacancy, and served as a good starting point to talk about not just LIHTCs but all the different types of affordable housing in the city.”

In the Dallas-Fort Worth region, Reza Sardari — who earned a Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Arlington and is now an analyst at Cintra, a private sector transportation infrastructure company — explored the factors that are creating increased cost-burdens for low-income families.

In his narrative, cowritten by Raha Pouladi, a planner at the city of Celina, Texas, Sardari presented maps from the Place Database highlighting census tracts where housing costs consume 27 to 30 percent of household income. He also used a data layer that illustrates the percent change in housing price index to identify zip codes that have more recently started to face affordability challenges and might benefit from early interventions to preserve affordability.

Other maps in the project illustrated the spatial mismatch between the concentration of subsidized properties in the southern sector of Dallas and the increasing growth of low-wage jobs in the northern sector of the city. The project concluded with a list of approaches, such as inclusionary zoning, community land trusts, and improved access to public transit, that would create a more even distribution of subsidized housing throughout the city.

“Combining affordability with housing price changes is a unique contribution of the Place Database,” Sardari said. “House price change is missing in other data sources. Often you have to go look in other places.” Most datasets in the Place Database are updated every year as new data becomes available, according to DeAngelo, which allows users to map changes over time.

Sardari emphasized that being able to access a range of datasets on one site is also an advantage of the tool, as researchers often have to navigate between the websites of places like the U.S. Census Bureau, Internal Revenue Service, and Environmental Protection Agency to map multiple criteria. For instance, in his analysis, Whiteley was able to access datasets from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development; Valassis Lists, a direct mail marketing company that compiles vacancy data; and the City of St. Louis, without leaving The Place Database platform.

For researchers who want to do a deeper dive, the Place Database offers the option to download datasets, Sardari added.

While none of the winners told stories across multiple geographies, DeAngelo said that this capability is another strength of the Place Database: “Many tools are hyper-focused on indicators in one city or region, but The Place Database lets policy makers compare U.S. geographies in one tool, as opposed to having to look at multiple tools that might not have standard data across places.”

The tool is one among a suite of free and accessible databases the Lincoln Institute offers, including the Atlas of Urban Expansion, Fiscally Standardized Cities, the State-by-State Property Tax at a Glance Visualization Tool, and Land and Property Values in the U.S.

Emma Zehner is communications and publications editor at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Image: The relative concentration of Low-Income Housing Tax Credit developments in and around census tracts with elevated levels of vacancy in the City of St. Louis. Credit: The Place Database/Jason Whiteley, St. Louis Planning and Urban Design Agency.

In the past century, the United States has mobilized for war, engineered the recovery from the Great Depression and the Great Recession, and sent a man to the moon. Tackling climate change should be no different, says Billy Fleming, director of The McHarg Center at the University of Pennsylvania Stuart Weitzman School of Design, and one of the editors of the new Lincoln Institute book Design with Nature Now.

“We can figure out how to do this,” Fleming declares in the latest Episode of Land Matters, the podcast of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. “We’ve done it before.”

New technological solutions may pop up in the future to make the job easier, but, on the mitigation side, several basic tasks are plainly evident: decarbonize the power grid, decarbonize transportation, and stop cutting down trees that suck up carbon and store it away. Similarly, on the adaptation side, green and blue infrastructure systems are proven solutions that need only be implemented on a larger scale, Fleming says.

He’s in a good position to know. Together with UPenn colleagues Fritz Steiner, Richard Weller, and Karen M’Closkey, Fleming helped identify the 25 cutting-edge ecological design projects from around the world that are showcased in Design with Nature Now. From a transformed landfill in New York City to a re-engineering of natural systems to absorb rising seas on the coast of Virginia, these interventions promote sustainability and build resilience for a broad range of both urban and rural locations.

What’s needed now is a high-level framework to organize these approaches and establish ways to pay for them, Fleming says. “The cost of doing something is far, far less than the cost of doing nothing,” he says.

You can listen to the interview and subscribe to Land Matters on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
 

Learn More

Design with Nature Now Amplifies Ian McHarg’s Manifesto on Ecological Planning and Land Use (Land Lines)
Tired of waiting for national push, a buzzing hive of climate resilience innovators is at work in Boston (The Boston Globe)
Letting a thousand flowers bloom: innovations in building climate resilience (The Boston Globe)

Photograph: Following a 1953 coastal flood in which 1,800 people died, the Netherlands adopted a successful water management strategy that gives its major rivers room to flood safely. Made up of 34 projects, Room for the River excavated floodplains, relocated dikes, and created flood channels to build resilience against more frequent and extreme weather events in the future. Room for the River is one of 25 projects featured in Design with Nature Now. Credit: IJsseldelta. With permission, Province of Overijssel/Rijkswaterstaat. Project Credit: Room for the River is a cooperative effort of nineteen different entities overseen by the Province of Overijssel Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management/Rijkswaterstatt. See www .roomfortheriver.com/.