The recent recession has been recognized as the worst in memory, and its effects are still being felt. Less well understood is the fact that this recession has been far worse for state governments than the drop in gross domestic product (GDP) would suggest. While state government finances have stopped falling off a cliff, they are closer to the bottom of that cliff than the top. Tax receipts have not returned to their pre-recession levels, and new revenue demands may overwhelm any interim improvements in collections. Even if states can avoid these challenges, it will be a long, slow road to fiscal recovery, with several large risks along the way.

State and local governments play a major role in the economy and in our daily lives. They finance more than 90 percent of K-12 education and deliver virtually all of it. Public colleges and universities educate three-quarters of students enrolled in degree-granting institutions. State and local governments oversee, design, and build more than 90 percent of the nation’s public infrastructure. They finance much of the nation’s social safety net and implement much of it as well. In fact, state and local governments spend more on direct implementation of domestic policy than does the federal government.

The services financed and delivered by state and local governments tend to have stable and generally rising demand. When a recession hits, there is no reduction in the numbers of children in school or elderly people in nursing homes—two of the most important spending areas for state and local governments—or in the numbers of fires or crimes. For programs such as Medicaid and higher education, for example, demand for the kinds of services that state and local governments provide typically rises during recessions. Unless and until states can fix their revenue structures or develop adequate reserves, public policy will continue to gyrate with every turn in the economy.

Decline in State Tax Collections

The Great Recession that started in December 2007 was the deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent and has remained stubbornly high, falling only to 9.1 percent after two years of recovery. State tax collections plummeted, falling for five consecutive quarters beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008 and continuing through 2009. Tax revenue fell by a dizzying 16.8 percent in the second quarter of 2009, and over the next several years it declined further and more sharply than it had in any other recession since World War II (figure 1).

The recent drop in GDP has been significant in comparison to past recessions, but the declines in taxable consumption and personal income, two components that typically constitute the tax bases of state and local government, have been far worse. Taxable consumption fell by about 11 percent, while GDP fell by about 5 percent. Taxable components of personal income also fell much more sharply than the overall economy and still languish more than 5 percent below the pre-recession peak, reflecting the jobless recovery.

Even though this has been the worst post-war recession by traditional economic measures, these measures do not tell the whole story. Capital gains, an important component of state tax bases, are not included in personal income as measured in the nation’s economic accounts. These gains have increased in importance and are a major cause of increased volatility in state finances. Capital gains fell by more than 55 percent, driving down tax collections in the final quarter of the 2009 fiscal year, when tax returns reflecting the 2008 stock market collapse were filed.

The net result of these and other forces was huge declines in state income, sales, and corporate taxes. Figure 2 shows that annual income taxes fell by more than 15 percent in inflation-adjusted terms, sales taxes fell by more than 10 percent, and corporate income taxes fell by more than 25 percent. Property taxes, which are crucial to local governments but generally not a significant revenue source for states, remained quite stable through much of the period, although they are beginning to weaken and in some parts of the country have fallen significantly.

A Slow Recovery

The recession ended in June 2009 and the economy has been recovering slowly. State tax collections grew in each quarter of calendar year 2010, and the character of that growth has improved over time. In the first two quarters of 2010, increased tax rates more than offset declines caused by the weak underlying economy, but in the last two quarters tax revenue growth was driven primarily by the improving economy. By the fourth quarter, tax revenue grew by 7.8 percent, but even with-out tax rate increases it would have grown by 7.0 percent. Tax revenue in the January–March 2011 quarter grew 9.3 percent compared to the previous year, and 21 states had double-digit growth. Preliminary data for the April–June quarter show tax revenue up 11.4 percent.

Inflation-adjusted state tax revenue for the nation as a whole in the latest four quarters (ending in the first quarter of calendar year 2011) was 7.7 percent below the peak attained in 2007. The heady growth in the first two quarters of 2011 probably cannot be sustained because much of it appears to have been driven by stock market gains in tax year 2010, boosting income tax returns in the second quarter. Those gains almost certainly will not be repeated in 2011.

In addition, turmoil in European debt markets and the recent Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.S. long-term debt have contributed to fears of a double-dip recession. There are indications that economic growth will be slower than most states have assumed in their current budgets. States are closer to the bottom of the cliff than the top, and are at risk of falling back down. Meanwhile, there are some signs that local government tax revenue also is beginning to weaken.

While tax revenues are now growing in most states compared to the last year’s low collection rates, they have not reached the levels prior to the recession. After adjusting for inflation, tax revenues for the latest four quarters are below the calendar year 2007 level in 43 states, and revenues are 10 percent or more below that level in 20 of those states. Among the seven states showing a positive shift in revenue collection, only Oregon (8.9 percent), Delaware (13 percent), and North Dakota (62.9 percent) are at levels above 2 percent.

State and Local Government Responses

States hit by falling revenue also face rising entitlement costs driven in large part by Medicaid enrollment, which typically increases after unemployed workers exhaust health insurance benefits. According to the National Association of State Budget Officers (2011, ix), Medicaid enrollment rose by 8.1 percent in fiscal year 2010, and by an estimated 5.4 percent in fiscal year 2011; states project a further increase of 3.8 percent in fiscal year 2012. These and other types of required expenditures cause further stress in the day-to-day operations of state and local governments.

It is difficult to measure the impact of spending cuts on state and local programs, but changes in state and local government employment can be tracked. Although private sector employment fell sharply from the beginning of the recession, state and local government employment continued to rise modestly for about a year and a half. Shortly before private sector employment reached its nadir, state and local government employment began to decline, and states and localities have been cutting employment aggressively. Local government employment is now about 3 percent below its peak, and state government employment is about 2 percent below its peak.

Education employment in most states is related primarily to higher education—community colleges, four-year colleges, and universities—although some is related to the administrative bureaucracy for elementary and secondary education, and in some states it includes part of the K-12 workforce. State government education employment has continued to rise significantly throughout the recession and recovery, reflecting in part the increased demand for higher education that usually comes with recessions (figure 3). When jobs are hard to find, many people choose to build skills and knowledge by entering an education program or extending their time in school (Betts and McFarland 1995).

Meanwhile, state governments have been cutting noneducation employment at an accelerating pace, so that it is now down almost 5 percent from its mid-2008 peak, nearly comparable to the current, slightly recovered condition for private sector employment. In each of the nine previous recessions, state government noneducation employment either did not decline at all or it declined by much less, as was the case in the 2001 recession.

Figure 4 shows the same employment data for local governments, which are being hit increasingly hard by slowing property taxes and cuts in state aid. Education employment is now down about 3.5 percent from its late-2008 peak, and the noneducation sector is down about the same percentage from its peak. There are no signs that these cuts are slowing, and little reason to believe they will abate in the near term.

Continuing Fiscal Pressures

The recent improvement in state tax revenue is welcome, but many challenges remain. States still face fiscal trouble for four main reasons. First, total revenue remains well below its peak. Second, the recession has had lagged fiscal effects, driving up the demand for many government services, especially Medicaid, other safety net programs, and higher education. The recession also has created other pressures and problems for states by depleting unemployment insurance trust funds, which may lead to higher unemployment insurances taxes in order to repay federal loans.

Third, state cyclical adjustments are not yet complete because they must contend with losses in both federal stimulus aid of more than $50 billion in fiscal year 2011–12 and the fact that temporary revenue measures put in place in response to the recession will expire soon. Fourth, even after this cycle is fully stabilized, states will have to contend with large increases in pension contributions and payments for retiree health care—a pressure that is likely to build for years to come for several reasons, including: increasing numbers of retirements by an aging workforce; the likelihood that health care costs will continue to rise more quickly than the overall rate of economic growth (Keehan et al. 2011); and, in the case of some pension systems and most retiree health plans, years of chronic underfunding.

States finance these services with unstable revenue sources, and tax revenue has become much less dependable over the last two decades, reflecting in large part the increasing role of volatile capital gains taxes. Unless and until states broaden their tax bases to make their revenue structures less volatile, or develop adequate reserves, public policy will continue to gyrate with every turn in the economy.

About the Author

Donald Boyd is the executive director of the national Task Force on the State Budget Crisis, co-chaired by former Federal Reserve Board chairman Paul Volcker and former New York lieutenant governor Richard Ravitch. Boyd is currently on leave from his responsibilities as senior fellow at the Rockefeller Institute of Government, where he conducts research on state and local government fiscal issues.

References

Betts, Julian R., and Laurel L. McFarland. 1995. Safe port in a storm: The impact of labor market conditions on community college enrollments. Journal of Human Resources 30(4):741–765.

Boyd, Donald. 2011. Recession, recovery, and state and local finances. Working Paper. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Keehan, Sean P., Andrea M. Sisko, Christopher J. Truffer, John A. Poisal, Gigi A. Cuckler, Andrew J. Madison, Joseph M. Lizonitz, and Sheila D. Smith. 2011. National health spending projections through 2020: Economic recovery and reform drive faster spending growth. Health Affairs 30(8): 1594–1605.

National Association of State Budget Officers. 2011. The fiscal survey of states. Washington, DC. http://nasbo.org/Publications/FiscalSurvey/tabid/65/Default.aspx

Tao Ran es profesor en la Escuela de Economía de la Universidad de Renmin en China, y director del Centro Chino de Economía y Gobierno Público de dicha universidad. También es senior fellow no residente del Instituto Brookings. Su campo de especialización se centra en la urbanización de China y en la economía política de la transición económica, la reforma del sistema de registro de suelo y hogares, y los gobiernos locales y las finanzas públicas en la zona rural de China. Sus varias investigaciones han aparecido en las revistas academicas Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Studies, Land Economics, Urban Studies, Political Studies, China Quarterly y Land Use Policy.

El Dr. Tao recibió su PhD en economía en la Universidad de Chicago en 2002. Desde hace tiempo es fellow de investigación en el Centro de Desarrollo Urbano y Política del Suelo de la Universidad de Pekín (PKU)-Instituto Lincoln, y fue previamente un fellow Shaw de investigación en economía china del Instituto de Estudios Chinos de la Universidad de Oxford. Con fondos de PKU-Instituto Lincoln y de otras agencias, como la Fundación Nacional de Ciencias de China, lideró un equipo de investigación y comenzó una encuesta amplia sobre los migrantes urbanos y agricultores desposeídos en 12 ciudades de cuatro áreas urbanizadas principales de China: el delta del río Yangtzé (provincias de Jiangsu y Zhejiang), del delta del río Perla (provincia de Guangdong), la región de Chengdu-Chongqing (provincia de Sichuan y municipalidad de Chongqing) y el área de la bahía de Bohai (provincias de Hebei y Shandong). También está trabajando en un proyecto piloto de modelos de revitalización de pueblos urbanos en la municipalidad de Shenzhen y el delta del río Perla.

Land Lines: ¿Por qué es tan importante el estudio de economía política en China y su transición para el futuro del país?

Tao Ran: Como consecuencia de un crecimiento de casi el diez por ciento en las últimas tres décadas, China se ha convertido en la estrella brillante de la economía global del siglo XXI. La gente se maravilla de la transformación exitosa de un país del tercer mundo en la base manufacturera más grande del mundo y la segunda economía global, una evolución que sacó de la pobreza a 450 millones de personas. Sin embargo, a medida que China crece, enfrenta una brecha cada vez mayor de desigualdad de ingresos, corrupción y contaminación graves, e injusticia social que ha dejado a cientos de millones de migrantes temporales sin acceso a servicios públicos aceptables, y decenas de millones de agricultores desposeídos y mal pagados en transición a una economía urbana industrializada.

Mi investigación explora las fuentes institucionales del crecimiento rápido de China en las últimas décadas, así como las implicaciones, tanto negativas como positivas, de China —una autocracia efectiva y orientada al crecimiento, con grandes inversiones en infraestructura e industrias, exportaciones masivas de bienes manufacturados y políticas selectivas de intervención gubernamental e industrial— como un modelo alternativo para el mundo en vías de desarrollo. Creo que es esencial poder predecir lo que va a ocurrir en China en un futuro cercano, porque tendrá consecuencias importantes para el mundo en vías de desarrollo.

Land Lines: ¿Por qué cree que es importante estudiar el registro de suelo y hogares? ¿Qué nos dicen estos estudios sobre el estado actual de la estructura socioeconómica de China?

Tao Ran: China se encuentra inmersa en una revolución urbana, con un volumen masivo de migración del campo a la ciudad cada año de las últimas tres décadas. Alrededor de 200 millones de migrantes rurales están trabajando y viviendo en ciudades chinas. No obstante, bajo el persistente sistema hukou (registro de hogares), una mayoría de migrantes que están registrados en su lugar de origen se consideran “foráneos” o “población temporal” en sus nuevas ciudades de residencia. No tienen acceso a beneficios de asistencia social, viviendas públicas subsidiadas o escuelas públicas urbanas.

Sus dificultades se agravan por los patrones altamente distorsionados del uso del suelo. Normalmente, cuando los países se urbanizan, menos del 20 por ciento de los suelos de utilización nueva se usan para manufactura, dejando la mayoría del territorio para viviendas de la población migrante. Bajo el sistema actual de requisa y arriendo de suelo en China, los gobiernos locales arriendan todos los años alrededor del 40 por ciento de los suelos de utilización nueva para construir parques industriales, dejando sólo entre el 30 y 40 por ciento del área para fines residenciales.

Los sistemas vigentes del uso del suelo y del registro de hogares en China contribuyen asimismo a generar varias estructuras socioeconómicas duales. Además de la dicotomía sobradamente conocida ciudad-campo, también hay una estructura dual de residentes urbanos permanentes versus migrantes. Otra dualidad separa a los propietarios de los inquilinos urbanos, que han acumulado mucha menos riqueza. Como un 90 por ciento de los propietarios son residentes permanentes, y el 95 por ciento de los inquilinos son migrantes, estas estructuras duales crean una sociedad muy dividida.

Land Lines: ¿Qué problemas del uso del suelo enfrentará China en las próximas décadas?

Tao Ran: Muchas ciudades han construido parques industriales, o “fábricas estilo jardín”, que hacen un uso muy ineficiente del suelo. Las empresas industriales arriendan suelo a un precio extremadamente bajo y usan sólo una parte del mismo, dejando otras áreas sin desarrollar o asignadas para proyectos verdes a gran escala. Los gobiernos locales ofrecen poco suelo residencial y comercial, para poder maximizar sus ganancias, lo que produce mercados de suelo comercial/residencial con poca oferta, generando burbujas de precios en el sector inmobiliario. El rápido aumento de los precios de las viviendas urbanas y la formación de burbujas inmobiliarias a lo largo de la última década ha hecho imposible para la vasta mayoría de las poblaciones rurales migrantes poder acceder al inventario de viviendas en las ciudades. De hecho, incluso las personas que ingresan en la fuerza laboral con títulos universitarios descubren que actualmente los precios de las viviendas están fuera de su alcance. Claramente, el acceso económico a la vivienda se ha convertido en el principal desafío que hoy día enfrenta China.

Las consecuencias de la crisis financiera mundial de 2008 tuvieron un enorme impacto en China. El paquete de estímulo fiscal y financiero implementado por el gobierno central benefició principalmente a los gobiernos locales, que continuaron invirtiendo en todavía más parques industriales. Por lo tanto, la economía china ha experimentado un exceso de capacidad en infraestructura industrial y bienes de manufactura, como también burbujas más grandes en los precios de las viviendas en todos los niveles urbanos. Esta trayectoria es menos sustentable aún si se considera que China ya tiene un exceso de capacidad manufacturera y ha sufrido burbujas inmobiliarias antes de 2008. Dada la prác-tica éticamente dudosa de pedir dinero prestado a bancos del estado, y la ilusión fiscal de que la burbuja inmobiliaria continuará para siempre, las deudas de los gobiernos locales han llegado al nivel sin precedentes de 10 billones de RMB, la mitad de los cuales se acumuló después de 2009. Si no se reforman los sistemas de gobierno del suelo, el registro hukou y el financiamiento público local, la economía china se desacelerará de forma muy significativa. En el peor de los casos, la burbuja inmobiliaria explotará, lo que causará una crisis financiera y económica a gran escala.

Land Lines: ¿Cuáles son algunas de las consecuencias políticas de su investigación sobre gobiernos locales y finanzas públicas en las zonas rurales de China?

Tao Ran: China tiene que reformar sus sistemas de registro de suelo y hogares, para que los migrantes puedan acceder a viviendas económicas y servicios aceptables de educación pública en las ciudades. El suelo ha jugado un papel preponderante en el modelo de crecimiento de China en los últimos 15 años, pero también es responsable de los problemas económicos actuales. Desde mi punto de vista, un paquete de reformas centrado en el suelo y la urbanización es la mejor opción para crear un equilibrio entre las tasas de importación y exportación del país, para generar una enorme demanda interna y aliviar al mismo tiempo el problema de exceso de capacidad que aflige a muchas industrias chinas.

Yo propongo una estrategia gradual, que apunte a construir un sistema dual más equitativo. Bajo el sistema de regulación del suelo actual, la propiedad del suelo se divide entre urbana y rural; y mientras que los gobiernos urbanos tienen la autoridad para asignar áreas rurales para desarrollo urbano, los gobiernos rurales no tienen los derechos recíprocos. Esta discriminación ha privado a los residentes rurales de sus derechos de desarrollo inmobiliario, y ha llevado a la economía china por una trayectoria destructiva.

Una liberalización total, sin embargo, puede hacer explotar las burbujas inmobiliarias existentes, al ofrecer al mercado un gran volumen de suelo rural. Para reducir esta preocupación por parte de los gobiernos locales y de los propietarios de viviendas urbanas, es posible que China tenga que crear un mercado de propiedades en alquiler para los 200 millones de migrantes rurales que ya viven y trabajan en las ciudades. La mitad de ellos vive actualmente en dormitorios provistos por sus empleadores, y la otra mitad reside en viviendas construidas ilegalmente en pueblos urbanos sin buena infraestructura o acceso a servicios públicos, como educación para los hijos de los migrantes. Propongo una reforma que permitiría a las comunidades rurales en pueblos suburbanos de las ciudades que reciben a los migrantes que conviertan su suelo no agrícola en un mercado de vivienda urbano, bajo una condición: En los primeros 10 a 15 años, sólo podrían construir propiedades para ofrecer en régimen de alquiler. Después del período de transición, estas viviendas obtendrían derechos plenos y se podrían vender directamente en el mercado inmobiliario.

Land Lines: ¿Cuáles son las ventajas de este diseño?

Tao Ran: Al confinar inicialmente el suelo rural desarrollable al mercado de alquiler, se crea un colchón para el mercado inmobiliario existente y se evitan los pánicos bursátiles y que explote la burbuja inmobiliaria. La fusión posterior de estos dos mercados, sin embargo, enviaría a los especuladores una señal confiable de que los precios de las viviendas residenciales no crecerán más, y el gobierno central podría ir eliminando las regulaciones estrictas sobre el mercado inmobiliario impuestas desde 2010 para controlar la burbuja inmobiliaria. Este paquete de reformas contribuiría a un crecimiento saludable del mercado de vivienda. Más aún, el otorgamiento de derechos de desarrollo inmobiliario a las comunidades rurales –si bien restringidos durante el período de transición– abriría un canal legal para solicitar préstamos para el desarrollo inmobiliario.

Esta oportunidad generaría un auge en la construcción de viviendas en pueblos urbanos y áreas suburbanas, y estimularía la industria de la construcción, que tiene un exceso importante de capacidad. A diferencia de la burbuja de vivienda actual, este tipo de desarrollo inmobiliario es más beneficioso socialmente y económicamente sustentable. Los residentes rurales, particularmente aquellos que viven cerca de los centros urbanos, se beneficiarían directamente. Este crecimiento en el mercado de propiedades de alquiler también proporcionará viviendas asequibles para cientos de millones de trabajadores migrantes, lo que les permitiría que se asentaran en las ciudades de forma permanente. La urbanización tiene el potencial de distanciar la economía china del modelo impulsado por inversión.

Land Lines: ¿Cuál es la clave para el éxito de esta reforma?

Tao Ran: La actitud de los gobiernos locales es fundamental. Su preocupación sobre cómo generar ingresos es perfectamente legítima, y el paquete de reformas tiene que resolverla. Bajo el sistema actual, los gobiernos locales tienen demasiadas gastos, y no cuentan con ingresos adecuadas. Después de la reforma, tendrían un poder limitado de requisa de suelo, y se desharían de la gran cantidad de aranceles por arriendo de suelo y préstamos bancarios asociados con dicho poder. A largo plazo, las municipalidades deberían recaudar impuestos sobre la propiedad para generar una fuente estable de ingresos para el financiamiento público local. Dada la fuerte resistencia de los residentes adinerados y políticamente poderosos de las ciudades que han introducido programas piloto de impuestos sobre la propiedad, no es práctico esperar que este nuevo impuesto entre en vigor en poco tiempo.

Creo que otra fuente no explotada por los gobiernos locales es el suelo industrial subutilizado. De acuerdo con varios informes, el coeficiente de edificabilidad en los parques industriales es sólo de 0,3 a 0,4, aun en áreas desarrolladas de China. Si se negocia una reorganización, es posible duplicar el desarrollo del suelo y convertir parte del suelo industrial para uso residencial y comercial. Nuestras estimaciones muestran que los gobiernos locales saldrían beneficiados al renunciar a la potestad de requisa del suelo, y podrían usar estos ingresos para pagar deudas y evitar una crisis financiera.

En la etapa actual de desarrollo, ninguna reforma de la economía china será fácil. Nadie se debería hacer ilusiones sobre una solución rápida. Pero el paquete de reformas de mercado dual propuesto brinda una esperanza de alentar el consumo interno y aliviar el problema de exceso de capacidad en muchos sectores. Un factor particularmente favorable para esta reforma es el énfasis que ha puesto el nuevo gobierno en la urbanización. El primer ministro Li Keniana ha invertido muchos años en este tema y parece tener un interés genuino en lograr soluciones. Esta propuesta puede proporcionar una hoja de ruta realista para dichas reformas.

Land Lines: ¿Qué lecciones puede darnos China?

Tao Ran: El modelo chino genera crecimiento de forma efectiva. También produce varias consecuencias negativas, como el endeudamiento excesivo por el uso del suelo, los conflictos sociales debido a la requisa de suelo, daños medioambientales y burbujas inmobiliarias que suponen una carga para la población urbana. La lección china es que el gobierno es esencial para que un país crezca, pero ese mismo gobierno puede exagerar las cosas y, a largo plazo, generar distorsiones que dañan en última instancia la sostenibilidad de la economía y la sociedad.

Almost 30 years ago, Amalia Reátegui and her husband, Eusebio, packed up their possessions, wrestled together their eight children, and moved to their new home: a dusty plot of land on the barren outskirts of the Peruvian capital, Lima. At first, life wasn’t easy there. Basic services, like running water and electricity, weren’t available. Roads were unpaved, and public transportation was nonexistent. Quality schools and health clinics were far away, in the more established and wealthier neighborhoods.

But even though conditions were tough, moving to San Juan de Lurigancho, one of Lima’s earliest informal settlements, offered the couple a rare chance to become homeowners, which would have been out of their reach in the city’s traditional districts.

Little by little, things improved. They built a sturdy house made of concrete, got electricity and, years later, running water and sewage. Buses arrived, and even a metro connecting San Juan de Lurigancho to the rest of the city. Their children went off to postsecondary education, and later landed jobs in hospitals, the municipality, and the navy.

Just as important for Amalia and Eusebio was a piece of paper from the government—the title recognizing their formal ownership of the 120-square-meter plot of land where they lived.

Today, the couple still lives in the same peach-colored house, but their family home, like their neighborhood, has been transformed over the years. The one-story house is now a four-story building with eight two-bedroom apartments, one for each of their adult children.

For Amalia, a 71-year-old soft-spoken grandmother with shoulder-length black hair, this was all part of the plan. “When we first built our home, I always thought it would be for my children,” she said. “It is my house, and it is for them.”

But for her children, who spent the equivalent of tens-of-thousands of dollars to build the upper floors, the current living situation leaves them in a legal limbo, where the ownership of their apartments is based solely on a verbal agreement with their parents rather than legal paperwork.

Reverting to Informality

The case highlights a new trend that is puzzling experts of urban development and property rights in Peru. After years of demanding legal titles for their homes, residents are allowing their properties to become deregularized by failing to use the national registry, known as Sunarp, to document property transactions such as real estate sales, change of ownership within families, or the construction of additional floors subdivided into apartments. As a result, properties revert to informality, and the government registry does not accurately reflect the actual owners.

The issue is a growing concern for policy experts, who say it could have major social, economic, and legal costs. Without legal registration, disputes can quickly arise among siblings over ownership of a family home after the parents die. Resolving the dispute can lead to high legal costs in Peru’s already overburdened and slow courts. Informal owners can’t use their property as collateral for formal bank financing, and they face lower resale value if they decide to put their home on the market. It also risks undermining the sustainability of Peru’s pioneering titling program, a popular tool aimed at promoting economic development that was later emulated around the world.

“The children are now living in the same situation that their parents were living in 40 years ago. They’ve become informal again,” said Julio Calderón, a Peruvian sociologist, Lincoln Institute researcher, and expert on property rights. “Urbanistically, this is a time bomb.”

The Rise of Informal Settlements in Peru

Like other Latin American capitals, Lima experienced a population explosion during the second half of the last century, as migrants from across Peru flooded into the arid coastal city seeking a better life.

In 1950, fewer than a million people lived in Lima. By 2000, that number had ballooned to 7.4 million, according to the United Nations Population Division. Today, the Peruvian capital is home to more than 9 million people, representing almost a third of the country’s total population. The drivers of Peru’s internal migration are varied, but it’s mainly a result of political and economic hardships in the countryside. In the 1970s, the rural economy crashed following a failed agrarian reform by General Juan Velasco, a leftwing military dictator.

The economy was battered again in the early 1980s during one of the worst El Niño weather events on record, causing damaging floods and collapse of the fisheries. At around the same time, the leftist Shining Path rebels launched a violent insurgency in the southern highlands, forcing many residents there to flee to Lima to escape a bloody conflict that would claim about 70,000 lives.

In Lima, the government wasn’t prepared for the wave of migrants. With nowhere to live, new residents began to take over vacant land on the city’s outskirts, sometimes clashing with police. One of those informal developments eventually became San Juan de Lurigancho. Hector Nicho, a community leader there, remembers the authorities as being powerless to stop the flood of people who seized land, hoping to make it their own.

“The first day of the invasion, there were 15 or 20 people. The following day, we were 500. The day after that, we were 1,500. It just kept growing. They couldn’t stop it, even though the state had sent police,” said Nicho, who was just a boy when he participated in the land invasion some four decades ago.

Land grabs occurred throughout Lima, eventually leading to the creation of districts like Villa El Salvador on the city’s southern edge and San Martin de Porres in the north. The squatters were some of the city’s most impoverished residents, living in areas noticeable for the lack of state presence and vast informal economy.

By the late 1980s, things were only getting worse. Peru’s economy had spiraled into hyperinflation. The Shining Path, once confined to the rural highlands, was fast encroaching on Lima, threatening to overthrow the government and install a Maoist-inspired regime.

De Soto’s Titling Program

Around this time, Hernando de Soto, a Peruvian economist, proposed a way out of the mess. De Soto argued that providing legal ownership to property would trigger development by allowing the poor to leverage their individual assets in the formal economy and access financing. But complex and expensive bureaucratic barriers were preventing that from happening, De Soto said.

“They realized that one of the biggest obstacles to registering property in Peru was their own public registry,” said Angel Ayala, a lawyer and expert on property registration. “The problem wasn’t the informality. The problem was that the formal sector wouldn’t allow you to enter it,” he said, referring to the government’s then-complex and costly regulations for property registration.

De Soto’s ideas were embraced by Peru, which created a new legal framework to provide property titles for people like the Reáteguis, living in informal settlements in places like San Juan de Lurigancho.

In 1996, the government created the Commission for the Official Registration of Informal Property (COFOPRI) to lead a nationwide urban titling program. It also created a parallel registry, known in Spanish as the Registro Predial Urbano. The registry, which focused only on Lima’s informal settlements, slashed the requirements for property registration, making it faster and cheaper for poor land owners to get titles.

The results were impressive. According to Regularization of Informal Settlements in Latin America, a Lincoln Institute report by Brazilian lawyer Edésio Fernandes, COFOPRI reduced the time to obtain a title from 7 years to 45 days. It cut the number of steps from 2,007 to 4. The cost of registering declined from US$2,156 to almost nothing.

Since its creation, COFOPRI has issued about two million property titles, making it one of the largest programs of its kind in the world.

“The people who worked there worked 24 hours a day,” said Jorge Ortiz, a former COFOPRI employee who later became the superintendent of Peru’s traditional public registry, known as Sunarp. “They really identified with what they were doing.”

De Soto’s titling policy became the preeminent approach for land regularization around the world. It won praise from development organizations like the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, and from politicians like former U.S. President Bill Clinton. Peru, as a pioneer of the program, became a model for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia that were also grappling with widespread informality and poverty.

Almost 20 years since the creation of COFOPRI, academics have identified several social and economic benefits from titling. Families with formal title, for example, invest more in their homes and their children’s education, studies show. They also have fewer children.

Critics of the program, however, argue that De Soto’s main hypothesis—that titles will increase the poor’s access to formal credit—has simply not materialized as he envisioned.

They also point to unintended consequences of large land-titling programs, such as political manipulation and incentive for squatters to continue invading land, creating new informal developments without services, in the hope of being registered one day.

The Risks of Deregularization

In Peru, one of the main concerns is the sustainability of the titling, as more and more properties are becoming deregularized. Years after they seized land, the original property owners are retiring or passing away. Their property, often given to their children, is slipping back into informality.

“What we have seen happening is that the second and third property transactions are no longer registered. For a number of reasons, people simply fail to keep their properties fully legal,” said Fernandes. “So in a few years’ time, you are back to square one in terms of the legalities of the area.”

Unless the trend changes, policy experts say, the government’s aggressive titling program could unravel, along with its benefits.

Informal property owners risk losing the most basic benefit of titling: tenure security and legal protection against eviction and fraud. They could face other costs, like legal expenditures to resolve disputes over ownership.

There are also opportunity costs. Informal homeowners can’t use their property to access formal credit. They’d also miss out on receiving fair market compensation if they decided to sell their home.

The extent of the deregularization is difficult to gauge, but a recent Lincoln Institute study by Oswaldo Molina, an Oxford-trained economist, found that just 21 percent of second property transactions in Peru’s recently titled areas were being formally registered (Molina 2014).

“When the reform started, it wasn’t just an issue of providing titles to the people, but maintaining them formal,” said Molina. “So what happened with the other 79 percent?”

“We are now going to have numerous properties with titles, but in the name of someone else,” he added.

Causes for the Failure to Register

During his time as the head of Sunarp, Ortiz said it was extremely rare to see individuals registering second property transactions. For Ortiz, this has been a disappointment.

“I believed in the model from the 1990s,” said Ortiz, who was the head of Sunarp during the start of President Ollanta Humala’s administration in 2011. “And now, some 30 years later, I’m seeing that it could go to waste.”

The causes of deregularization are obscure, but experts point to cultural issues and changes in public policy as important drivers.

In many places in Peru, there is a strong respect for the verbal decisions of parents, even concerning important legal issues like property registration. In cases where a family home is subdivided, children rely on their parents, the property owners, to sign off on the transaction in order to provide them with a formal title.

Experts say that many parents are happy to let their children pay for the subdivision, but they don’t consider providing formal title, believing that a verbal agreement is sufficient to split up the property. In other cases, parents refuse to provide title over concerns that they could lose control over their home.

“There is still a culture where you respect the decision and the word of the parents,” said Jesus Quispe, the director of Cenca, a Lima-based urban development institute, which works in San Juan de Lurigancho. “Few transactions go through the legal system. There is a culture of informality.”

Ramiro García, the head of the urban program at the Peruvian development organization Desco, says many families ignore the public registry until they confront a problem, like a legal dispute over ownership.

“It is bureaucratic, expensive, and families don’t consider it necessary,” he said from his office in Villa El Salvador.

Before Lima’s population boom, families that couldn’t afford to buy a home could move to the outskirts, grab a piece of land, and build a house. Today, most of the vacant land is gone. What remains is located on the edge of mountains, often unstable for living.

As land has become scarcer, demand for housing has remained robust. As a result, the city has started to expand upward, with apartment buildings replacing houses.

Real estate prices have also skyrocketed, driven by Peru’s strong economic growth over the past decade. For young families from lower-middle class backgrounds, escalating costs have made it increasingly difficult to acquire their first home.

To help their children, parents who settled Lima’s outskirts a few decades ago are now adding two or three floors to their homes, and subdividing them into apartments.

In San Juan de Lurigancho, Melly Rosas, a 53-year-old secretary at a church, decided to add three more floors to her house after watching her married children struggle to save up enough money to buy a property.

“At first, this wasn’t our plan,” she said. “But it was too expensive for them to buy land while paying rent.”

“We are growing upward because there isn’t any more space,” Rosas added, referring to the increasing number of buildings in her neighborhood.

Rosas and her husband, Ricardo, haven’t looked into providing titles for their children’s apartments, but they plan to. “We know we have to do so, because it will reduce a lot of problems they could have,” she said. “Right now, everything is verbal.”

A short drive away, on a quiet, residential street, Marcelo Nuñez, a 52-year-old shoemaker, lives in a spacious house with high ceilings that help to keep it cool during Lima’s hot summer days. Attached to the house is a small store, where his wife sells soft drinks and potato chips.

Like their neighbors, Nuñez and his family slowly built their home over the last 30 years, one wall at a time. Now his 28-year-old daughter is building a second floor, where she plans to live with her baby boy. Nuñez’s son, 25, will likely live on the third floor.

Nuñez said he hadn’t planned to register the upper floors, even though they will be owned by his children. “For my part, I hadn’t thought about doing it legally, because we are family,” he said. “It’s pretty strange to do a subdivision legally. Normally it is just by word.”

But, like Rosas, Nuñez agrees that leaving his children without formal titles could create future problems. “If they’re in agreement, I wouldn’t have a problem with doing it legally,” he said.

But cultural factors aren’t the only impediment to property registration. Policy experts say that people like Rosas and Nuñez will run into several costly regulatory requirements if they eventually decide to formalize their properties.

The obstacles arose, experts say, due to the government’s decision to eliminate the Registro Predial Urbano, the parallel registry created to speed up formal registration in Lima’s informal settlements.

In 2004, Peru merged the Registro Predial Urbano into Sunarp, the traditional public registry that was seen as too costly and bureaucratic. The Registro’s simpler procedures for second and third property transactions were replaced by Sunarp’s more complicated and costly requirements.

Critics of the decision say the government made the change due to lobbying from powerful groups representing public notaries, who were concerned about losing lucrative business due to the Registro Predial Urbano. Unlike the traditional registry, the Registro allowed property owners to hire any lawyer, not just notaries, to legalize their transactions.

“By returning to the previous system, the costs multiplied by five. People said, ‘No, I’m not going to do that,’” said Ayala, the lawyer and expert on titling. “The issue isn’t cultural. It is about how to maintain the titling process in the formal system.”

Deregularization in Peru has far-reaching consequences for other countries that established their own titling programs based on the Peruvian model.

Argentine economists and Lincoln Institute researchers Sebastian Galiani, of the University of Maryland, and Ernesto Schargrodsky, of the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, found that in a recently titled suburb of Buenos Aires a significant portion of households were falling back into informality. In a 2013 study, the authors concluded that deregularization was likely due to the unaffordable cost of keeping the properties formal (Galiani and Schargrodsky 2013).

“This isn’t just a Peruvian issue, but something that is much larger in the region,” said Molina, the economist who studied deregularization in Peru. “It is a problem with the short-term view of the reform.”

Potential Solutions

To stem the tide of deregularization, policy experts say authorities will need to intervene now to prevent the need for costly retitling programs in the future.

Some small steps have been taken. In 2007, the government issued legislation to provide lower-income title holders with funds to formalize subdivisions, a process that first requires them to register construction of the house. (Peru’s registration program gave residents titles to the land, but not the house built on top.) However, registration experts say the 2007 program was never fully implemented.

More importantly, experts say the government should reinstate simpler procedures, like those that were discarded when the Registro Predial Urbano was integrated into Sunarp. “The concrete thing to do would be to reconsider mechanisms that were used before,” said Molina. “The Registro was created so that the poor could correctly receive titles.”

Regulatory changes may not be enough on their own. Many experts insist that the problem requires authorities to tackle Peru’s broader culture of informality as well. To do so, they say, the government should launch a campaign to educate residents about the importance of maintaining their properties formal.

“This is a problem that the government has to address,” said Gustavo Riofrio, a sociologist and Lincoln Institute researcher who has spent his career studying property rights. “You have an entire city that was made by these people who are facing the same problem. It is now a social problem, not an individual one.”

Officials at Sunarp say they are working to simplify procedures for property transactions, without jeopardizing the legal security that the current system provides. Sunarp says it is also working to educate people about the importance of using the registry, but acknowledges that the government “hasn’t been able to instill in the population the importance of formalization.”

Until there is a greater acceptance of the regulatory system, some lawyers say Peru should make registration compulsory. Unlike many other countries, Peru does not require registration of property transactions; it’s voluntary.

“We have to educate people so they understand that registration doesn’t just provide security. It’s important to create value as well,” said Ortiz. “But until we have a new culture, we need to require people to register by modifying the civil code.”

At the home of Amalia and Eusebio, in San Juan de Lurigancho, their 40-year-old daughter Emma is eager to discuss property titles.

Emma, who lives in a third-floor apartment with her son, says the subdivision of her childhood home is working out nicely so far. The family members respect each other’s space, but they still get together for a lunch on Sunday. The children also help their aging parents with expenses such as food.

But Emma says she knows it’s important to define ownership legally, especially after seeing cases where other families get mired in legal conflicts over their home. She thinks her parents will eventually start the process to provide their children with titles.

“My mom and dad still feel physically well. When that changes, I think they’ll let it go,” she said. “But for the moment, they are still keeping it tied up. For me, that’s OK.”

Ryan Dubé is a Canadian journalist based in Lima, Peru. His articles have been published in The Wall Street Journal, The Globe & Mail, and Latin Trade. He has also worked on projects for the Economist Intelligence Unit.

References

Fernandes, Edesio. 2011. Regularization of Informal Settlements in Latin America. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. www.lincolninst.edu/pubs/dl/1906_1225_Regularization%20PFR%20Rev%202012.pdf

Galiani, Sebastian and Ernesto Schargrodsky. 2013. “Land De-Regularization.” Working paper. www.utdt.edu/ver_contenido.php?id_contenido=2674&id_item_menu=4526

Molina, Oswaldo. 2014. “Loss of Plot Formality through Unregistered Transactions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Peru.” Working paper. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. www.lincolninst.edu/pubs/2447_Loss-of-plot-formality-through-unregistered-transactions

Una versión más actualizada de este artículo está disponible como parte del capítulo 4 del libro Perspectivas urbanas: Temas críticos en políticas de suelo de América Latina.

Los instrumentos de captura de plusvalía, aunque difíciles de aplicar, son ampliamente reconocidos como mecanismos beneficiosos de planificación fiscal. En América Latina, Colombia se ha destacado por su larga y particular tradición de institucionalización de la captura de plusvalías mediante la contribución de valorización (una especie de tasación especial) y la contribución de desarrollo municipal (Ley 9 de 1989), la cual antecedió al actual instrumento de participación en plusvalías.

Desde 1921, año de introducción de la primera de estas leyes, Colombia ha desarrollado una cultura fiscal en la cual los ciudadanos están conscientes de los instrumentos de captura de plusvalía, y los aceptan como un mecanismo legítimo de recaudación de ingresos. Como ejemplo, en 1968 (en su época de mayor uso), la contribución de valorización representó el 16 por ciento de los ingresos municipales en Bogotá y aproximadamente el 45 por ciento en Medellín; a principio de la década de 1980 recaudó un 30 por ciento de los ingresos totales en Cali. No obstante, debido a que el suelo aún desempeña un papel importante como defensa contra la inflación en países como Colombia -donde los mercados de capital no están muy desarrollados-la puesta en práctica de tales instrumentos sigue enfrentando una fuerte resistencia política por parte de muchos y variados grupos de interés, desde propietarios y promotores poderosos hasta familias de bajos y medianos recursos para quienes la tierra es una importante fuente de ahorros.

Sobre la base de esta experiencia, la Ley 388 de 1997 que creó la participación en plusvalías decreta que todas las municipalidades deben diseñar y aprobar un plan maestro de diez años (el Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial o “POT”) y adoptar la plusvalía como una de las fuentes principales de ingresos del plan. Las entradas recaudadas por las plusvalías deberán utilizarse principalmente para la provisión de infraestructura y viviendas sociales a vecindades pobremente dotadas de servicios públicos, así como también para obras públicas de interés general. La ley establece tres condiciones administrativas para poder aplicar las plusvalías como parte del POT, a saber:

1. cambio de categoría de la tierra, especialmente cuando la tierra rural con bajo potencial de desarrollo es incluida dentro de los límites de crecimiento del plan maestro (y por consiguiente se designa como tierra para expansión urbana o como tierra suburbana);
2. autorización de derechos adicionales de desarrollo en un sector determinado; o
3. conversión del uso de un sector, especialmente de uso residencial a uso comercial.

La participación en plusvalías se basa en el derecho público y legítimo de participar en la captación de los aumentos del valor de la tierra generados por acciones administrativas tales como cambios en zonificación o densidad, que pueden generar ganancias sustanciales para el propietario de la tierra.Es importante notar que este instrumento no es un impuesto ni tampoco una contribución o tarifa, sino más bien un derecho de la comunidad a “participar” en los beneficios resultantes de las funciones gubernamentales orientadas a mejorar el desarrollo urbano. La Ley 388 y sus decretos acompañantes definen los parámetros generales para utilizar las plusvalías, pero se requiere que las municipalidades determinen sus procedimientos específicos. Sin embargo, a muchos alcaldes y funcionarios públicos les preocupan las ambigüedades de la ley, y les está costando el proceso de su aplicación, así como la del instrumento de plusvalías.

Con el objeto de abrir un espacio de debate sobre este problema entre funcionarios públicos y otros expertos, el Instituto Lincoln y el Departamento de Planeación de Bogotá organizaron un seminario en diciembre de 1999, antes de la fecha límite de aprobación del plan maestro legal (POT) (31 de diciembre). El seminario reunió a representantes de entidades y participantes activos en el proceso de ejecución, entre ellos directores de planificación de ciudades importantes, representantes de ministerios y organismos públicos nacionales, representantes de instituciones encargadas del avalúo inmobiliario, abogados y especialistas participantes en el diseño del instrumento. Un resultado inmediato del seminario fue la formación de un grupo de presión que logró cambiar la fecha límite al 30 de junio de 2000, alargando así el tiempo disponible para revisar las estipulaciones problemáticas del POT.

Aspectos claves de la implementación de la ley

Aplicación de plusvalías a diferentes situaciones.

La mayoría de los representantes municipales que asistieron al seminario coincidieron en que las plusvalías deben ser utilizadas únicamente en situaciones que redunden en ganancias claras y sustanciales, a fin de procurar una mayor aprobación por parte de los ciudadanos y de simplificar el proceso administrativo durante la primera fase de la ejecución. El consenso general es que los propietarios han aceptado la contribución de valorización y han estado dispuestos a pagar porque han entendido claramente que el aumento en el valor del suelo se debe a la inversión pública. En Bogotá, por ejemplo, la contribución de valorización ha sido una de las principales fuentes de financiamiento para la construcción de calles nuevas desde 1969.

En comparación, las plusvalías se aplican únicamente en situaciones en que el aumento en el valor de la tierra puede atribuirse específicamente a una decisión sobre el uso de tierra pública definida en el POT, tal como un cambio en la categoría de la tierra, su densidad o su uso. Una situación para la cual se evidencia el cambio en el precio de la tierra, es la extensión del perímetro urbano a fin de incluir suelo rural que podría desarrollarse en años subsiguientes. La mayoría de los representantes de municipalidades opinaron que este escenario es el más obvio para la aplicación de la ley, y que debe constituir el enfoque del instrumento durante su etapa inicial.

Exactitud de los avalúos del suelo.

La Ley 388 sugiere establecer la fecha de julio de 1997 (fecha de aprobación de la ley en el Congreso), como base de referencia para establecer las ganancias en el precio de la tierra. Sin embargo, aún no está claro cuándo ni por qué método los municipios podrán determinar el precio de la tierra en los años sucesivos. El problema es que el valor base inicial podría ya haberse alterado por los “rumores” que hayan corrido acerca de las designaciones de suelo en los planes maestros. En vista de ello se plantean varias interrogantes, por ejemplo: , ¿debería calcularse el valor antes de la circulación de rumores sobre los cambios urbanísticos, o justo antes de tomarse la decisión formal? ¿Cómo deberían las ciudades tratar los incrementos en el valor del suelo atribuidos a acciones ejecutadas entre esa fecha base y la aprobación del POT? ¿Cuánto tiempo dura la validez del avalúo? ¿Qué pasa después de cierto tiempo (por ejemplo, 15 ó 20 años)?

Estas preguntas adquieren aún más relevancia si consideramos que las normas del uso de la tierra establecidas recientemente en algunas ciudades ya han sido capitalizadas en precios de la tierra, y por ende han reducido sustancialmente los márgenes actuales para la aplicación de la participación en plusvalías.

Además, existen diferentes implicancias legales acerca de los valores relacionados que deben considerarse, es decir, el “uso real” versus el “mayor y mejor uso”. ¿En qué debe basarse el aumento del valor del suelo?: ¿en el uso potencial? ¿en el real? Y en lo que se refiere a la fórmula definida legalmente para hacer los avalúos, ¿debería aplicarse dicha fórmula al área potencialmente desarrollable, incluso si el constructor no está solicitando una autorización para desarrollar el sitio hasta su máxima densidad admisible? ¿Qué pasa si una propiedad avaluada en cierta fecha no se termina de construir? Aunque la ley define el concepto de zonas con características geoeconómicas similares, no está claro si el terrateniente puede solicitar legalmente que el avalúo se haga sobre la base de “propiedad a propiedad” o sobre la base de “zonas homogéneas”.

Otra fuente de preocupación la constituyen las estrictas fechas límites establecidas por la ley para calcular los precios comerciales antes del plan maestro y los nuevos precios de referencia después de la adopción del plan. Por ejemplo, la ley otorga a la alcaldía apenas cinco días después de la aprobación del nuevo POT para determinar los nuevos precios en las áreas afectadas, e impone además realizar todos los cálculos en el transcurso de los próximos 60 días. No está clara la estructura legal de adopción de procedimientos de costo simplificados que permitan efectuar los avalúos en áreas homogéneas de la ciudad, y no en lotes individuales.

Definición de categorías de suelo.

Las diferencias de las categorías de suelos para las leyes 9 de 1989 y 388 de 1997 conducen a interrogantes sobre su aplicabilidad. La Ley 9 incluyó una categoría de suelo suburbano que podía ser desarrollado en densidades moderadas en la periferia de las ciudades. Por ejemplo, toda la tierra desarrollable hacia el norte de Bogotá cae ahora en esa categoría suburbana, la cual permite densidades residenciales de 160 habitantes por hectárea. La zonificación propuesta por el nuevo plan maestro permite un aumento para llegar a densidades de entre 180 y 220 habitantes por hectárea. La Ley 388 establece la posibilidad de gravar la conversión del uso rural a urbano, pero no contempla la categoría suburbana, aun cuando el suelo suburbano ya posee poderosos derechos de desarrollo. Debido a estas dificultades, y para evitar problemas adicionales de implementación, muchas ciudades prefieren tratar el suelo “suburbano” como “urbano”.

Exenciones y casos especiales.

Aunque las viviendas para la población de bajos ingresos están exentas de las plusvalías, la ley impone de todas maneras calcular los aumentos en el valor del suelo. Esto constituiría un costo adicional innecesario, considerando que el 80 por ciento de todas las viviendas a construirse en Bogotá durante los próximos diez años estarán destinadas a la población de bajos recursos. ¿Qué efecto tiene este cálculo sobre la imparcialidad de este instrumento para el 20 por ciento restante de las viviendas? ¿Qué tan eficaz es la plusvalía como un instrumento de planificación que busca disminuir la especulación en la tierra designada para viviendas populares?

Otro asunto se refiere a la designación de zonas de conservación o áreas designadas para protección ambiental mediante la transferencia de derechos de desarrollo. Las protestas de agentes privados sobre las apropiaciones hechas en contra de sus derechos de propiedad plantean importantes interrogantes de compensación. Además, para el caso de áreas ya designadas para desarrollos de alta densidad pero que aún no están totalmente desarrolladas, hay también preguntas sobre las “expectativas” de los valores del suelo.

Obstáculos políticos y operativos.

Una fuente continua de confusión y malentendidos se refiere a la eficacia del cálculo del incremento en el valor del suelo. ¿Puede o debe implementarse este cálculo en los casos en que, debido a una recesión económica generalizada, los valores del suelo estén supuestamente en declive? Si el propietario pierde dinero al vender la tierra, o si no está desarrollando sus propiedades en absoluto, entonces sencillamente no habrá plusvalías disponibles para la administración local. Teóricamente bastaría con hacer una distinción entre los efectos generadores (acciones administrativas) y las tendencias en los mercados de tierras. Sin embargo, tal como está sucediendo actualmente en Colombia, en la práctica es fácil entender que los instrumentos de captura de plusvalías son más poderosos y políticamente aceptables durante los períodos de ascenso de los ciclos de precios del suelo que durante los períodos de descenso.

Las connotaciones políticas del tema se ponen de relieve si se consideran las sustanciales carteras de tierra normalmente apartadas por los promotores para fines de planificación estratégica e incluso de especulación. En efecto, muy a menudo los planificadores urbanos se ven obligados a ser más flexibles (si no magnánimos) y a aflojar los reglamentos urbanísticos a fin de motivar a los promotores durante las épocas de recesión. Claro está que esta presión por parte de los promotores podría sencillamente ser un intento de recuperar pérdidas incurridas por las decisiones equivocadas sobre inversiones en el pasado.

Algunas veces los promotores se quejan de que la municipalidad está fijando una tarifa de plusvalía demasiado alta en tiempos de economía deficiente, cuando la recesión puede desalentar las inversiones futuras en mejoras de construcción. Sin embargo, la experiencia habida con la contribución de valorización ofrece un contraargumento, sugeriendo que si la cantidad de plusvalías generadas por el cambio en el uso de la tierra se consideran sobrevaluadas, significa que el cambio carece de una buena razón costo/eficacia y por tanto no debería proponerse. Otra posibilidad es que quizás se cometió un error en los estudios o cálculos de viabilidad.

Por encima de estas dificultades prácticas, la ley impone ciertos requisitos de aplicación que afectan su operación, tales como la necesidad de notificar directamente al propietario que su propiedad está sujeta a obligaciones por plusvalías. ¿Debería esta responsabilidad correr por cuenta de la administración pública o del propietario? Existen también dificultades legales respecto a cuándo se deben cobrar las plusvalías al propietario (¿durante la liquidación de las propiedades? ¿cuando el propietario solicite la licencia de conversión del uso del suelo?). De la misma manera, si un área que se va a densificar (o sufrir cualquier cambio de zonificación) recibió una infraestructura adicional por la cual se le impuso la contribución de valorización, el propietario estaría sujeto a una doble tributación, algo que sin duda constituiría una fuente de malestar. Tal como lo establece la nueva ley, la contribución de valorización es independiente de las plusvalías, lo cual es importante debido a la opción existente de calcular y cobrar las ‘plusvalías por las obras públicas designadas por el Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial (POT).

Ajustes propuestos por funcionarios municipales

Los funcionarios públicos presentes en el seminario realizado de diciembre en Bogotá sugirieron unas cuantas maneras de simplificar la ejecución de la Ley 388, las cuales sacrifican la precisión en el cálculo de las plusvalías a cambio de conveniencia, transparencia y cumplimiento. Esta perspectiva se basa en que la voluntad política puede ser más importante que la “exactitud” técnica, al menos en las etapas tempranas y de transición de la puesta en marcha, a fin de mejorar las posibilidades de éxito a largo plazo. Un ejemplo útil y descriptivo fue el citado por los funcionarios de la ciudad de Cartagena (500 000 habitantes), la cual desde 1992 ha estado aplicando exitosamente la contribución de desarrollo municipal. Esta experiencia demuestra que los cambios de densidad de un nuevo lote deberían tener un efecto similar en la generación de las plusvalías, al de la tasa generada por el mismo tipo de cambio de densidad observada en un área distinta pero comparable de la ciudad.

Los participantes también propusieron restringir la aplicación de las plusvalías a las áreas más estratégicas y dinámicas de la ciudad, donde el potencial de ganancias sea más evidente que en áreas con poco aumento en el valor del suelo. Además, la valoración de las plusvalías debe basarse en zonas homogéneas, y no en lotes individuales. Es necesario también que el instrumento de plusvalías pase por varias fases de desarrollo escalonado conforme las municipalidades ganan conocimiento y destrezas en técnicas de valorización y avalúos. Así, el período establecido de nueve años para la validación de los avalúos de los incrementos en el valor del suelo debería ser sujeto a revisiones peródicas más frecuentes. Igualmente, la emisión de algunas reglas prácticas de transición (ausentes en la formulación original de la ley) facilitarán la introducción de un nuevo sistema fiscal.

Se hicieron otras sugerencias respecto a la adopción de planes maestros (POT). Las municipalidades deberían utilizar tales planes, en vez de algún otro mecanismo de valoración externo al POT, para identificar áreas en donde habrá un cambio en la utilización del suelo a fin de determinar si dicho cambio trae consigo un aumento en las plusvalías. Antes de adoptar el POT, las municipalidades deberán identificar tales áreas con el fin de poder tener a tiempo las técnicas de valoración y avalúos y para mitigar la sensación de incertidumbre. Algunos participantes incluso sugirieron utilizar el POT para definir el valor “anterior”, y así poder determinar el incremento neto en el valor del suelo.

En general, los participantes coincidieron en que tanto el concepto como la orientación del plan maestro y del instrumento de plusvalías son aceptables y deseables. Muchos de los problemas y asuntos discutidos en el seminario y en todo el país se refieren a la ejecución de cualquier esquema de captura de plusvalías, o simplemente de cualquier nueva legislación normativa o fiscal. En este caso el diseño de los procedimientos de ejecución puede mejorarse, dado que siempre será más fácil cambiar los aspectos operativos que la ley en sí. Sin embargo, y por encima de todas las dificultades formales remanentes, se ha demostrado claramente que la voluntad política, la experiencia técnica acumulada y el compromiso ético de los participantes son factores críticos para perfeccionar este instrumento de política del suelo y poner en práctica los principios muy encomiables que lo inspiran.

Carolina Barco de Botero es la Directora de Planeamiento de la ciudad de Bogotá, Gerente Consultora de Ciudades, Ltda. en Bogotá y forma parte del Consejo Directivo del Instituto Lincoln. Martim Smolka es Senior Fellow y Director del Programa para América Latina del Instituto Lincoln. Fernanda Furtado, Fellow del Instituto Lincoln, también participó en la elaboración de este artículo. Recientemente terminó su tesis de Ph.D. (en portugués) sobre la captura de plusvalías en América Latina, en la Facultad de Arquitectura y Urbanismo de la Universidad de São Paulo, Brasil. En uno de los capítulos de su tesis se describe la situación de Colombia.

Argumentos en favor y en contra de la participación en plusvalías

A favor

• reduce la corrupción en tanto que expone los beneficios que en el pasado solían negociarse “debajo de la mesa”;
• reduce la especulación;
• genera ingresos públicos que son designados para fines redistributivos;
• reduce las distorsiones en la distribución de los incrementos en el valor del suelo urbano;
• contribuye a un mejor entendimiento de la cultura fiscal, mejorando así la recaudación de otros avalúos e impuestos.

En contra

• introduce más burocracia en la ejecución de planes maestros y en el proceso de desarrollos de licencias del ambiente construido;
• legaliza la apropiación privada de los incrementos en el valor del suelo, puesto que el propietario se queda con aproximadamente un 50 a 70 por ciento de las plusvalías;
• genera altos costos administrativos relativos a las entradas que genera.

Changes in the global economy, telecommunications and transportation systems are causing cities throughout the world to look at large-scale development projects as a way to restructure land uses and stimulate the local economy. For example, large, well-located areas previously occupied by railroad facilities and related transportation and industrial uses have been left abandoned in many mid-sized cities as more goods are now shipped in containers from a small number of major ports and terminals.

Statutory restrictions on state-owned enterprises have limited options to release these underutilized lands to the private market or to develop them as public projects. With increased privatization and the removal of restrictions, these properties would appear to be ideal locations for successful public/private development partnerships. However, while such monumental urban developments may seem like a panacea, they also raise many concerns about implementation and unanticipated impacts on other neighborhoods of the city, as well as competition with other cities.

Cordoba is representative of cities engaged in strategic planning to restructure local land uses under conditions of a changing macroeconomic and institutional environment. One of the key questions for these cities is to what extent can a major new development, in this case a teleport, effectively stimulate economic diversity and revitalize a neglected area.

Conditions in Cordoba

The City of Cordoba, with a population of approximately 1.3 million people, is strategically located in the geographic center of Argentina and has well-established linkages to the capital of Buenos Aires and to major cities in Chile, Brazil and Uruguay. Cordoba has long been an industrial center focusing on the production of cars, planes, trains and machinery, as well as consumer goods such as food, shoes, clothing and leather products. More recently, the city has expanded its service sector for both local and regional needs.

As Argentina has experienced economic stabilization and restructuring of its economy, Cordoba has gained greater potential to become a thriving center of Mercosur, the regional business district of south central South America. However, one of the city’s most vexing obstacles remains its competition with Buenos Aires.

Like many Latin American cities, Cordoba is also experiencing increased decentralization, movement toward a polycentric urban structure, and related socio-economic problems. Several years ago the city embarked on a strategic planning process that involved a broad cross-section of constituencies and resulted in a 1996 plan that identified some immediate economic development needs and other matters requiring further analysis and implementation.

As part of an ongoing collaboration between city officials and the Lincoln Institute, a seminar held in Cordoba in April 1997 examined the regulation and promotion of the land market. (1) One high-priority idea that emerged from those discussions related to the development of a teleport on underutilized central-city land. A committee formed to address the planning and implementation of such a facility included municipal officials, private sector business interests and members of the local university community.

The teleport envisioned for Cordoba is a mixed-use development comprising office space, convention facilities and hotels along with other ancillary land uses. The provision of state-of-the-art office facilities is considered a key objective to meet the city’s needs as both a regional center and a national location for some firms. These facilities will have elaborate telecommunications infrastructure and will be developed with a combination of public and private sector investment. One of the first projects is to be a hotel developed by the municipality within an historic structure.

The proposed location for the teleport is a 40-hectare site in the center of the city adjacent to the Suquia River. The site includes old railway lines and has good access to major roads linking the Mercosur region. The land is currently in both public and private ownership, and it is anticipated that some land transfers will be required to undertake the project.

Observations and Recommendations

To help the committee finalize its plans for the teleport, the city of Cordoba and the Lincoln Institute organized a second seminar in April 1998 to discuss concerns about implementation of the project. Comparative case studies of large-scale public/private developments in Toronto, Canada, and Sao Paulo, Brazil, provided useful perspectives on the problems and challenges faced by those cities and offered lessons for examining the design and likely prospects for the proposed teleport.

A key consideration is the teleport’s large scale relative to the existing local market, which suggests, at the very least, that the project needs to be phased in to ensure orderly development. Related to the project’s size are its impacts on other land in the city, including sites that have the potential for similar types of development. The relative attractiveness of the chosen site may adversely affect development of non-residential land uses in other designated growth areas of the city. At the same time, it is important to understand the depth and strength of the market for the specific uses intended for the proposed teleport site.

A related concern is the project’s potential negative impacts on existing and expanding residential neighborhoods in the area. On the other hand, the success of the teleport development could benefit the neighborhood if the residents are integrated into the planning and implementation process.

Among the lessons to be learned from other cities’ experience is the value of having a manageable set of objectives, and some seminar participants feared that the Cordoba committee was being overly ambitious. A second lesson regards the need for extreme care in selecting the location for a major new development. While the target location for the teleport was not considered deficient in any specific respect, it had not been selected as the result of a systematic analysis. Rather, this is a case where the city is trying to take advantage of an opportunity to develop a plan for an available site that urgently calls for reuse.

A third admonition came from the private sector, which has special needs in terms of access, infrastructure and costs. Some qualified market research can shed light on a host of issues including the extent to which Cordoba could hope to compete with Buenos Aires as a local or regional headquarters for domestic or international firms. Clearly the intended private sector beneficiaries must be involved directly in the conceptual development and planning of the project.

Several weeks after the seminar, the city commissioned a study to aid the implementation strategy for the teleport based on these concerns and recommendations. The study will also investigate potential instruments to effect land value capture to provide infrastructure financing and mechanisms to structure the kinds of public/private partnerships that appear to be necessary for the success of the teleport project.

A final general observation is that officials in Cordoba, or any city considering large-scale urban development, need to move rapidly beyond the study phase and establish training and other support systems for local leaders and practitioners to enhance their capacity to manage the project. Skills and experience are needed to assess the functioning of land markets, develop requisite technical capabilities, negotiate with the private sector, and oversee financial management, utility regulation, property taxation, land regulations and their complex interactions. The challenge in any such undertaking is to balance sufficient planning and research with the need to take advantage of development opportunities as they arise and to learn from the process as it evolves.

David Amborski is professor in the School of Urban and Regional Planning at Ryerson Polytechnic University in Toronto. Douglas Keare, a senior fellow of the Lincoln Institute, has experience with strategic planning for large cities in developing countries.

1. See “Strategic Planning in Cordoba,” Douglas Keare and Ricardo Vanella, Land Lines, September 1997.

Figure 1: Questions for Large-scale Developments

These topics and questions guided the seminar discussions in Cordoba, and they may be useful to other cities considering large-scale development projects on underutilized urban lands.

Understanding the Land Market: How will the local land market respond to large-scale public interventions such as the proposed teleport? What is the demand capacity for state-of-the-art office buildings in the region? What are the potential mechanisms for intervening in the land market to enhance the chances of success for this type of project?

The Urban Impacts of Large Projects on Underutilized Land: What are the impacts of this type of large-scale project on adjacent lands and competitive locations within the metropolitan area? How can infrastructure use be optimized? What alternatives could be explored to change the existing zoning structure?

Instruments of Promoting and Financing Private Investments in Urban Regeneration Projects: What financial instruments can be used in this type of development in conjunction with private sector participation? What instruments for private investments have been most successful? How can these be used with public/private partnerships? What benefits, disadvantages or complications might result from these partnerships?

Mechanisms of Redistribution and Land Value Capture: How can incremental land value be identified and estimated? How can land value capture schemes be used up front to finance the infrastructure for this project? What alternative instruments may be used for this purpose? What institutional reforms or partnerships might be necessary to implement these schemes and to serve as incentives for further development?

Governments have often intervened in land markets in Asian cities, but with limited effects. In recent decades, economic globalization and political democratization have created even stronger demands for more efficient and equitable land use policies. Rapid economic growth in cities with scarce land resources has generated a wave of new thinking on land values and land markets among scholars and policymakers.

The GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) negotiations are stimulating new production structures in much of Asia, which consequently shift demand from agriculture into manufacturing and other urban land uses. At the same time, local governments are struggling with more financial autonomy and are becoming dependent on revenues from increased land values to subsidize the costs of development.

Three countries illustrate emerging land and tax policy issues raised by these complex interactions of international and local economies.

In Taiwan, land values for urban and agriculture uses are extremely divergent. The immediate issues are: 1) how to better use the 40,000 hectares of agricultural land that are no longer needed for production as a result of the GATT agreements; and 2) how to distribute the development benefits created by this conversion of agricultural land.

In Korea, the challenge concerns the legality of taxation to capture excessive increases in land value and gains from land speculation. Faced with builders’ pressure to develop greenbelts and open spaces in metropolitan areas and with local politicians’ concerns over fiscal autonomy, the central government is preparing a major tax reform to capture these increments in land value.

In Japan, land values have changed dramatically over the past ten years, but the reasons for these fluctuations are not always clear. Land speculation, unpredictable market forces and government regulation all play a part. Analysis of failed attempts to control land prices will be valuable in developing future policies.

Land Value and Speculation

The perception of land value in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan may not be significantly different from that in other capitalist countries. The problem is in the speculative value, also known as “unearned income” or the “unearned increment” in land value. This value can be so high that it distorts all the legal, administrative, political and social measures designed to manage the use of land. In Japan, for example, land value in major cities tripled from 1983 to 1989. In Korea, land value increased 13 times between 1975 and 1990, while the national income increased only 5 times in the same period. In Taiwan, the value of farm land increased 155 percent from 1986 to 1990, compared to the GDP’s 36 percent growth during the same period.

Policies intended to control land values during periods of high speculation are unlikely to succeed. During the boom times of the 1980s in all three Asian countries, special interest groups and politicians dependent on economic growth failed to anticipate any negative downturn effects. Land policies became disorganized, and conflicts arose among different government departments. For example, some local governments subsidized farmland owners who had already sold their land for conversion to urban uses and had benefited financially from this speculation. Financial institutions provided loans to corporations which depended on land speculation for their corporate earnings. The results were devastating: farmers who wished to farm could not afford to buy farm land; manufacturers could no longer compete when 60 percent of their investments were spent on land costs; and average citizens had an even more difficult time owning a house.

Reevaluating Land and Tax Policy

As land values have dropped in recent years, there is a new opportunity to revise land policies. Special interest groups and land value speculators have softened their opposition to government intervention on land markets. The GATT and WTO (World Trade Organization) negotiations are requiring countries to better coordinate their land policies and general economic policies in the interests of industrial readjustment. Future policies in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan will likely incorporate the following measures:

New regulations will be designed to convert some farmland and environmentally less-sensitive land for housing and mixed-use urban development. The goals are to continue sustainable development and to assist the conversion of the agricultural sector.

Tax reform and exaction-like laws will be introduced to capture the “unearned income” from land speculation. A capital gains tax, land value tax and land value increment tax will be the hallmarks of tax reform. Local government will be given more autonomy to require private developers to share benefits with the community.

Land use planning systems will be coordinated at all levels of government to manage growth. New land use controls will be designed to cope with new economic activities derived from the economic readjustments.

To help advance these land and tax policy reforms, the Lincoln Institute research staff is working with colleagues in each country. The Council of Agriculture in Taiwan, Republic of China, and the Institute are conducting a three-year joint study (1994-97) on land value capture and benefit distribution mechanisms. A team of researchers from the Lincoln Institute and the Korea Tax Institute is researching tax reform for the Korea Ministry of Finance during the 1995-1996 academic year. Both American and Japanese scholars are examining land values in Japan from a macroeconomic perspective.

Alven Lam in a Lincoln Institute fellow whose current research focuses on land value capture and property rights in Asia.

Additional information in the printed newletter.

Chart: Indices of Korea Land Values and Major Economic Indicators: 1980, 1985 and 1990. Land prices, housing prices, national income and wholesale prices are charted. Source: Office of National Statistics, Korea Statistical Yearbook, each year, and Kim, Dai-Young, “Choices for Future Land Policy,” in Land Policy Problems in East Asia, 1994.

This article is adapted from a policy roundtable report on national spatial development strategies prepared under the auspices of the Lincoln Institute, Regional Plan Association and the University of Pennsylvania School of Design. The roundtable was held in September 2004 at the Pocantico Conference Center of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. The impetus for this project developed in the spring of 2004 in a graduate city planning studio directed by Robert Yaro and Jonathan Barnett, both Practice Professors in City and Regional Planning at Penn, and Visiting Professor Armando Carbonell. With funding support from the Ford Foundation’s Institute of International Education, additional input was provided by a distinguished team of European and American planning experts hosted by Professor Sir Peter Hall at the Institute of Community Studies in London, England.

European efforts to develop policies and investments for the entire continent and for regions that cross national boundaries have been organized under the umbrella of the European Spatial Development Perspective, a set of policy directives and strategies adopted by the European Union in 1999 (Faludi 2002). Over the past generation the EU has initiated a large-scale approach to planning for metropolitan growth, mobility, environmental protection and economic development. Europeans use the umbrella term “spatial planning” to describe this process, involving plans that span regional and national borders and encompass new “network cities” spread out over hundreds of kilometers (see Figure 1). The EU is also mobilizing public and private resources at the continental scale, with bold plans and investments designed to integrate the economies of and reduce the economic disparities between member states and regions, and to increase the competitiveness of the continent in global markets.

By contrast, the United States has no strategy to anticipate and manage comparable concerns, even though the U.S. population is expected to grow another 40 percent by 2050. How can this growth be accommodated in metropolitan regions that are already choking on congestion and approaching build-out under current trends and policies? How can we improve the competitiveness and livability of our own emerging constellation of network cities? How can the U.S. reduce the growing disparities in wealth and population among fast-growing coastal regions, vast interior rural areas and declining industrial cities? How can the U.S. promote regional strategies designed to address these concerns?

Two important precedents have shaped this analysis of America’s spatial development. The national development and conservation strategies prepared by President Thomas Jefferson in 1807 and President Theodore Roosevelt in 1907 stimulated the major infrastructure, conservation and regional economic development strategies that powered America’s economic growth in its first two centuries. Other major strategies and investments promoted in the administrations of Presidents Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Eisenhower also had a profound impact on the nation’s growth. Some examples are the Morrill Act land grant university system, the Homestead Act, and creation of the national rail and interstate highway systems.

Economic, Demographic and Spatial Trends

Rapid population growth

The U.S. Census Bureau forecasts that the nation’s population will grow by 40 percent to 430 million by 2050, whereas most European countries are expected to lose significant numbers of residents, due to declining birth rates and limited immigration. This means we must build half again as much housing and as much commercial and retail space and the infrastructure needed to support these activities in the next half century as we have in the past two centuries.

The study of historical settlement patterns sheds light on current and future patterns. While early settlers clung primarily to the coasts and in compact urban regions, the inventions of rail transportation and later the automobile forever changed settlement patterns and allowed people to set up homes in the interior of the country and in highly decentralized metropolitan areas. Fast-growing Sunbelt states, such as Texas, California and Florida, are expected to see sustained rapid population growth, spurred by the trend of immigrant populations settling in those and surrounding states.

While most central cities will continue to grow at a moderate pace, many metropolitan regions around these urban cores are expected to experience remarkable development. As the city of Philadelphia continues to lose population, for example, its adjacent suburbs and areas further outside the city continue to grow. In general, however, the number of people living in urbanized areas as opposed to rural areas is projected to continue rising, signaling an increase in the amount of urbanized land in the coming decades.

The building out of suburban America

Since 1970 the vast majority of the nation’s economic and population growth has occurred in 30 large metropolitan regions, mostly in their sprawling outer rings. While some cities and inner-ring suburbs are now experiencing infill development and renewed population growth, many others are approaching “build-out,” which increases traffic congestion and commuting times, contributes to loss of farmland, and creates conflicts between new development and green infrastructure, such as public water supplies and wildlife habitat.

In less than three centuries, 46 million acres of America’s virgin landscape have been converted to urban uses. In the next 25 years that number will more than double to 112 million acres. If current growth and land consumption rates continue, another 100 million acres will be urbanized by 2050, at a rate seven times faster than the population will grow.

Uneven and inequitable growth patterns

While most population and economic growth has been in large metropolitan regions, other areas of the country have experienced losses. Large rural regions where resource-based economies or groundwater reserves are in permanent decline are left without the means to support even basic services. A number of large urban centers and second-tier cities also have experienced decades of decline. For example, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis and New Orleans have lost a third or more of their populations since 1960. Even in cities where the outer-ring suburbs have grown, many inner cities and inner-ring suburbs have lost residents, tax base and economic activity, and poverty has become highly concentrated. Many of these places have high concentrations of African-Americans, Native Americans, Latinos and poor whites who will be increasingly disadvantaged as economic opportunities in these regions decline.

In contrast with the U.S., the European Union for decades has invested vast sums to promote development and redevelopment of comparable bypassed areas. These investments have produced dramatic results in revitalizing the economies of Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece, and formerly depressed cities and regions in Europe’s periphery. Similar strategic investments in America’s disadvantaged cities and regions could produce comparable results.

Limited infrastructure capacity

Metropolitan infrastructure of all kinds, most of it built in the last half of the twentieth century, will reach its capacity limits in the first decades of the twenty-first century. Unless new capacity is created in roads, rails, airports, seaports and other systems, the nation’s economic potential will be artificially limited. Federal transportation investments over the past decade have been largely focused on maintaining the existing infrastructure, not on expanding the capacity of these systems.

Over the last 50 years, Americans have become increasingly mobile. The increase in miles traveled per person has been most pronounced in car and aircraft travel, creating new challenges to keep various types of transportation corridors congestion-free. At the same time, congestion poses a serious threat to manufacturing and freight sectors of the economy. Experts believe that by 2020 there will be nearly a doubling of trucks on the roadways over current numbers. Significant policy measures are needed to channel more resources into high-capacity transportation systems for both individual and commercial activity.

Emergence of megalopolis

In 1961 French geographer Jean Gottman described the Boston–Washington Megalopolis. Between now and 2050, more than half of the nation’s population growth, and perhaps as much as two-thirds of its economic growth, will occur in this and seven other emerging megalopolitan regions whose extended networks of metropolitan centers are linked by interstate highway and rail corridors. Similar networks of cities in Europe and Asia are now seen as the new competitive units in the global economy. Major public and private investments are being made in high-speed rail, broadband communications and other infrastructure to strengthen transportation and economic synergies among their component centers.

The New Megalopolis

The new megalopolis is a model for cooperation among the cities and regions in the U.S. that are growing together and creating diseconomies in congested transportation networks, which in turn affect the economic vitality and quality of life of these regions. This model is based on the idea that if the cities in these colliding regions work together they can create a new urban form that will increase economic opportunity and global competitiveness for each individual city and for the nation as a whole.

These component metropolitan areas will have to cooperate in the formation of a structure that takes advantage of the complementary roles of each area while addressing common concerns in the areas of transportation, economic development, environmental protection, and equity. The new megalopolis model will contribute to improving social and economic cohesion along with a better territorial balance, and will support more sustainable development by emphasizing collaboration on important policy issues, infrastructure investments and instruments for facilitating economic growth and job creation.

To facilitate the development of megalopolitan areas, the U.S. could focus on creating a truly intermodal network linking rail, highway and air transportation. Such connections would relieve congested airports and provide greater options for freight movement. The resulting transportation flexibility would be less vulnerable to terrorist attacks and disaster. Furthermore, regional infrastructure and development focused around rail stations would shape and redirect urban growth in more efficient, less sprawling patterns.

Our current direction is building a country whose competitiveness is threatened by inefficient urban forms and declining rural communities. The new megalopolis concept points us in a different direction, one in which urban areas and their surrounding regions work together on a larger scale to address common concerns and share their complementary strengths. This new model would produce an America that is environmentally sustainable, socially equitable, and competitive in an increasingly global economy.

Six distinctive regions can be identified based on common history, geographic location and topography: the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest and West. Most of the nation’s rapid population growth, and an even larger share of its economic expansion, is expected to occur in eight emerging metropolitan areas spread over thousands of square miles and located in every one of these regions (see Figure 2). These megalopolitan areas are becoming America’s economic engines: centers of technological and cultural innovation where the vast majority of immigrants who are driving population and economic growth will assimilate into the economic and social mainstream.

In Europe and Asia similar network cities are already being seen as the new competitive units in the global economy. The European Union and national governments in Europe, China and Japan are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in new intermodal transportation and communication links and other infrastructure to underpin the capacity, efficiency and livability of these regions. In all of these places, new high-speed rail networks are integrating the economies of formerly isolated regions.

Toward an American Spatial Development Perspective

An American Spatial Development Perspective (ASDP) could encompass long-range strategies to achieve five broad national goals.

1. Facilitate the emergence of eight new megalopolitan areas that can compete with similar emerging networks of cities in Europe and Asia.
2. Create capacity for growth and improved global competitiveness in the nation’s transportation and other infrastructure systems.
3. Provide resiliency, redundancy and capacity in the nation’s infrastructure to respond to national security needs.
4. Revitalize bypassed urban and rural regions.
5. Protect and reclaim important nationally significant natural resource systems and promote less land-consuming patterns of growth.

The federal government could play a crucial role in this process, through collaborations with existing and emerging “bottom-up” networks of interconnected regional strategies, encompassing each of the emerging megalopoli. Ideally, the federal government would help coordinate and “incentivize” these planning efforts, but rely on local and regional initiatives to drive each region’s own strategies.

The federal government could also lead in coordinating infrastructure planning and investments for national and regional intermodal, high-speed transportation networks, as it did in promoting creation of the national rail and interstate highway systems. These investments would be made through partnerships between federal, state and regional government, and private investors. User fees, tolls and fares would cover a substantial portion of the cost of developing and managing these systems.

Regional strategies could also promote investments in major higher education and research institutions needed to maintain the nation’s competitive advantage in technology and create a lifelong learning system to help skilled workers adapt to economic change. This broad approach could also identify the important natural resource systems that sustain public water supplies, biological resources, sense of place and recreational opportunities. Future growth could be designed to reuse formerly used sites and to reclaim and restore impaired landscapes and natural resource systems.

Plans for these infrastructure systems should be closely coordinated with strategies for smaller-scale urban and regional development, to ensure that future development patterns support, and are supported by, these infrastructure investments. Federal and state governments could invest in demonstration projects to test innovative transportation, land use, environmental and other strategies.

Building and Financing the ASDP

The proposed new infrastructure systems and urban development outlined in this article could cost trillions of dollars, much of which could be financed through user fees and public-private partnerships. It should also be possible to employ modest payroll or other taxes to finance some of these investments, which would generate trillions of dollars of new economic capacity for the whole nation. The expected doubling of the national economy by 2050 would expand the gross domestic product by more than $14 trillion (in constant dollars). Redirecting even a small share of the growth of tax revenues in these strategic investments could secure the nation’s economic future.

For over a hundred years, the U.S. has financed major infrastructure projects through a “top-down” system, with major funding from the federal government complemented by state resources. Based on general public agreement of national priorities, this model financed several generations of growth and paid for one of the world’s great infrastructure systems. However, this approach is now being challenged as the needs of maintaining our aging infrastructure systems outpace federal and state funding, to say nothing of new capacity expansion. Today we witness a debate between “donor” and “donee” states over the fairness of federal transportation funds, even as the total amount of federal dollars falls far short of estimated needs. As a result, we find ourselves increasingly starved for capital for infrastructure systems.

To provide more funding for system maintenance and expansion, metropolitan regions are looking to new and innovative financing systems. Public authorities use their tax-free status to attract private dollars through bond issuances, sales and lease-back arrangements. New user fees, such as congestion pricing or high-occupancy-vehicle lanes on toll roads, link charges to those who benefit the most from new investments, creating new revenue streams. And value capture models, such as tax increment financing, allow increases in land values to finance infrastructure investments.

The federal government is advancing instruments such as TIFIA, the Transportation Infrastructure Innovation Act, to stimulate the development of these projects. However, megalopolitan areas have a critical role to play in this emerging system. They provide a vital link between state and federal government and local jurisdictions, which in many cases have the last word over land use decisions. These regional areas transcend political boundaries and capture the true economic and social geography of their communities. And they have the size, capacity and expertise to undertake complex planning strategies.

Armando Carbonell is senior fellow and co-chair of the Lincoln Institute’s Department of Planning and Development. Robert D. Yaro is president of the Regional Plan Association in New York City.

References

Faludi, Andreas, ed. 2002. European spatial planning. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and Regional Plan Association. 2004. Toward an American spatial development perspective. Policy Roundtable Report. September.

University of Pennsylvania School of Design. 2004. Planning for America in a global economy: 2004–2005. City Planning Studio Report. Spring.

Report from the President on Property Rights

Cities face major difficulties when attempting to introduce a more efficient property tax system. One such challenge is controlling volatile political issues associated with taxes levied directly on assets, such as the highly visible property tax. The close proximity between the taxing authority and the taxpayer translates into political pressure to reduce taxes and avoid updating property valuations. City officials become an easy target of criticism and may suffer electoral consequences.

Although the property tax is recognized internationally as a preferred instrument to finance urban public services, in most Latin American countries the tax has limited significance as a source of revenue, representing on average 0.32 percent of GDP (De Cesare 2010). Brazilian cities collect an average of about US$46.50 per capita in property taxes per year. However, most cities do not reach the national average. In more than half of the municipalities, revenues do not exceed US$5.00 per capita (Afonso et al. 2010).

The Brazilian Property Tax Model

The property tax (IPTU: Imposto sobre a Propriedade Predial e Territorial Urbana) is a direct tax paid to the local municipality based on the estimated fair market value of real estate property. In Brazil, much of the potential for collecting this tax is lost because local authorities fail to administer the tax correctly and effectively. Discussions of legislative revisions of the IPTU always result in heated debates and intense political response, in many cases causing mayors and other officials to avoid embarking on the process.

An added problem is the strict legal requirement that valuation criteria must be approved by law before the tax base can be updated. The criteria must include the characteristics of the property and its components, as well as the monetary value attached to each component. In other words, it is not enough for Brazilian legislators to set criteria to determine that one property is more valuable than another and therefore must pay a higher tax. The law itself must clarify how a property with certain characteristics will be appraised in monetary terms.

After years of debate, Brazil’s Superior Court ruled in 1996 that a municipal law would be required to update the IPTU tax base whenever the adjustment is higher than the official consumer price index (Statement 160). Before this ruling, cities used to reappraise the property values for tax purposes by executive acts (decrees), independently of the municipal legislature. Since this legal requirement was introduced in 1996, many local governments chose not to send the necessary bills to the municipal legislature for the much-needed updates of property valuation.

In some cases the resulting political disasters served as an alarming inhibitor to any new attempt to revise the tax base. To resolve this dilemma, several cities opted instead to raise the IPTU tax rates to compensate for their reluctance to reappraise properties. Moreover, for each new law approving an assessment update, new types of exemptions or tax reductions tend to be created, often cancelling the efforts to enhance the performance of the IPTU.

As a result of political resistance, the IPTU was often disregarded as a revenue source for municipal finance in Brazil. The largest cities, with more than 500,000 inhabitants, began to concentrate their efforts on the tax on services (ISS: Imposto Sobre Serviços); smaller cities relied more on funds transferred from state and federal government through the municipal revenue-sharing fund (FPM: Fundo de Participação dos Municípios) (table 1).

The federal Applied Economic Research Institute (IPEA 2009) reports the loss of IPTU’s importance as a share of direct municipal revenues at the national level and the rise in revenues from the service tax—an indirect tax that tends to be regressive. The share of the IPTU in direct municipal revenues decreased from 38 percent to 28 percent between 1991 and 2007, causing it to lose its position to the ISS as the principal source of direct municipal revenue (table 2).

An important change that directly affected the IPTU came in December 2009, when the Ministry of Cities published Resolution Act No. 511 establishing National Directives for the Multipurpose Cadastre (CTM: Cadastro Técnico Multifinalitário). This law provided local governments with a valuable standard instrument on which to base their legislative proposals to update the IPTU tax base. The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy had a major role in supporting the development of the technical aspects of this legislation.

The Resolution Act states that property assessment for fiscal purposes is a technical process that must be carried out according to guidelines from the Brazilian Technical Standards Association (ABNT) to reflect fair market value. It also states that an effective IPTU promotes fiscal and social justice by ensuring equitable treatment of taxpayers. Periodic updating of the IPTU tax base is recommended either (1) every four years for cities of 20,000 inhabitants or more (smaller cities may adopt longer cycles); (2) when the assessment ratio is less than 70 percent or greater than 100 percent compared to the market value; or (3) when cumulative property values are not distributed equally, as measured by a dispersion coefficient greater than 30 percent.

What Prompted the Property Tax Reform?

Combined with a strengthened institutional framework, two other factors have put the IPTU back into the current debate about sources of municipal financing in Brazil. The first was the accelerated appreciation of urban land in both large and mid-sized cities. This appreciation was caused principally by economic growth, the housing credit explosion, low taxation, and low risk compared to investment in financial assets from 2003 to 2007 (Carvalho Júnior 2010). The expansion of the real estate sector exposed the discrepancy between the collection potential and the actual flow of funds into the public treasury from the property tax.

A second factor that unleashed the discussion about updating tax assessments to enhance the performance of the IPTU was the global economic crisis that began in 2008 and reached Brazil in 2009. As economic activity declined, reflecting lower consumption and production and a credit contraction, federal transfers to municipalities declined as well. The cities facing this loss of revenue had little alternative but to revive the IPTU, the oldest and most traditional local tax.

In this context, some of the larger Brazilian cities updated their property value maps with revised land value estimates, as well as the construction cost tables used to assess property values, both of which were extremely undervalued. Belo Horizonte, São Paulo, and Salvador are among the cities that acted to strengthen their revenues by updating the tax base for the IPTU. These cities also introduced new policies to guide the implementation of the property tax.

It should be noted that to keep the IPTU tax base unchanged is a risk. One of the major sources of tax injustice, along with the problem of omissions in registering land or development areas, is the use of outdated appraisals when imposing the IPTU (Smolka and De Cesare 2009).

The Case of Belo Horizonte

Belo Horizonte is the capital and largest city of the state of Minas Gerais, located in the southeastern region of Brazil. With a population of 2.4 million, it is the fifth largest Brazilian city and the center of a metropolitan region with a population of approximately 5 million.

The local government has a long history of innovation and good governance. It was a pioneer in introducing the participatory budgeting process in 1993, in adopting GIS applications to improve city management, and in carrying out a widely successful campaign to eradicate hunger, among other noteworthy initiatives. Belo Horizonte collected approximately $332 in property tax per capita per year in 2007, prior to the reform, ranking seventh among Brazil’s large capital cities (Afonso et al. 2010).

The property tax reform started in Belo Horizonte with a revision of the tax base and was guided by the dual desire to eliminate distortions created by its antiquated model and to introduce a new fiscal culture that would support a permanent process of updating property valuation to reflect market variations.

The need for additional revenues and the experience of the 2009 financial crisis also influenced the mayor’s decision. The subsequent reductions in economic activity and federal transfers convinced the local government that it had to establish more sustainable financial conditions to maintain administrative autonomy. Intensifying the use of the IPTU and convincing the lawmakers of this necessity was the first step on the road to update the property tax base.

In devising a strategy for tax reform, the city government realized the change could not be presented simply as a revision of property valuation driven by the need to increase revenues. It also had to involve other aspects, such as measures to mitigate the impact of the tax increase and to provide incentives for taxpayer compliance. Smolka and De Cesare (2009) note that despite the accuracy of valuation estimates, if the reassessment generates large differences in the amount of taxes due, there will be a reaction from taxpayers who are substantially burdened. In this case, plans must be offered that ease such impacts.

The Legislative Process

Once the reform was designed and its virtues and vulnerabilities were identified, the project was submitted first to the municipal legislative council to keep the focus on those empowered to vote and approve the bill. It is a common mistake to seek popular support before or during the voting process, and the executive often loses the battle if it tries to act on two fronts at the same time.

Voting processes in the case of the IPTU are established by municipal law. However, intimate knowledge of the legislative process is necessary, and it is a trump card at the same time. In Belo Horizonte it was important to avoid having either a long, drawn-out process that could leave room for extended questioning or too short a process because an unexpected event could put voting off indefinitely.

Once presented to the lawmakers, all points of the tax reform project were thoroughly clarified. All aspects, positive or negative, were discussed at the council and, of course, favorable aspects were always compared to any noted weaknesses. Legislators must be sheltered from the doubts that are always posed to them and constantly be well-informed and committed to the tax justice criteria embedded in the project. This is the main role of the mayor’s representative, a key member of the core group that implemented the reform. As expected, at the end of November of 2009, the project was approved in its second and final round.

The legislative debate on the bill was both an end in itself and a preparation for the public presentation of the project. During the legislative approval process many expectations were created about the reform, especially by the press. From that point on, the strategy was to promote all of the benefits of the new IPTU system of assessment and collection to quell fears until the actual arrival of the tax bill in January 2010.

The Public Information Campaign

The main instruments used to present the reform to the public were launching a public information campaign and setting up information desks throughout the city to resolve citizen’s queries. The next phase implemented the measures intended to mitigate the impact of the reform and to provide incentives for taxpayer compliance.

In the campaign, the administration emphasized the message that all the revenues from the IPTU are used for works that transform people’s lives. The goal was to make the benefits of IPTU revenues concrete and visible, and that proved to be an efficient way of showing citizens the practical importance of the tax for the development of the city and for the well-being of its citizens. This message was repeated frequently.

In January of 2010, ten taxpayer assistance desks were operating in different parts of the city. Around 200 municipal staff participated directly in assisting taxpayers in more than 20,000 personal consultations. Of these, 26 percent became requests for review of the tax bill. This number was higher than in 2009, but much lower than the pessimistic expectations of those who foresaw a flood of claims (figure 1).

The overall strategy was to determine how well the situation was controlled, which involved implementing a tax structure compatible with the level of claims expected. Building this structure requires extraordinary foresight and attention to soothing the taxpayer and concentrating his attention on what really matters—the correct calculation of the tax and its payment within the timeframe established by law.

However, a good tax structure is not enough. Also important is training staff to provide taxpayer services. Trustworthy, relaxed, quick attention precludes spoiling the quality of the process, the revision of the tax base, and the new tax policies; good taxpayer services also lower the political risks of periodically updating property valuations.

Managing the Process

Among the useful lessons from the Belo Horizonte tax reform process is to avoid updating the tax base only in times of financial crises as an effort to boost revenues. Doing so may undermine the work of instituting accurate valuation practices. Instead, it is advisable to adopt and maintain a permanent updating policy that ensures fairness.

Second, the fairness of the revaluation process should be emphasized in light of the ever-changing market, which imposes price variations that require tax adjustments. Consumption taxes are indiscriminate as to the taxpayer’s economic condition and have a regressive effect, whereas IPTU permits progressive rates and thus helps to improve equity, which in turn improves access to housing, contributes to municipal autonomy, and leads to efficient city planning. Instead of relying primarily on indirect taxes or federal transfers, the municipality that uses the property tax efficiently can reduce social inequalities and better order urban spaces, while also avoiding speculation and helping to preserve the environment (IPEA 2009).

A third important point is to establish clear channels for discussing the reform plan. Preferably, policy steps should be taken by a trusted representative of the mayor who is authorized to negotiate on his behalf through a democratic and collective process. Belo Horizonte established a core group with one person named to coordinate what information will be disclosed and how it will be discussed with the public.

A misunderstanding of the process can create insurmountable resistance and place the complete project in jeopardy. Thus, a key factor is having a well-informed press agent who is capable of dealing with the criticism and inquiries that will surely come, as well as a technical person who knows the reform project well and can offer the explanations required by the different actors involved in the process.

Property Tax Relief Measures

Belo Horizonte succeeded in achieving its goal through arguments for justice and administrative autonomy that culminated in the approval of a complete revision of the property tax system, including the following relief measures.

• Tax rate reductions. These were introduced after updating the tax base to avoid a tax burden beyond the capacity of the taxpayer to pay.
• Adjustment of the progressive tax. The city also introduced graduated tax rate brackets consistent with property values, effectively replacing what had been, in practice, a single tax rate.
• Expansion of the exemption value threshold. This would correct for the fact that, in a dynamic real estate market, many older properties or those belonging to lower-income owners would be priced out of the IPTU exemption band once the revaluation is completed. To avoid this situation, the threshold was raised for property values exempt from the tax.
• Spreading the impact of the reform over two fiscal years. Even for taxpayers who have the capacity to pay, an increase in the IPTU could cause an imbalance in their personal budgets because of other financial commitments. Thus, the city allowed payment of half of the increase in 2010 and the full amount in 2011.
• Deferred payment. Special circumstances, such as unemployment, illness, or prior debt, can affect one’s ability to pay the property tax. The reform established that a taxpayer who demonstrates conditions of duress could request the postponement of a portion of his tax until 2013.
• Creation of discount programs. One of the objectives of the tax reform in Belo Horizonte was to make the IPTU a tax that promotes redistribution of income and contributes to a higher quality of urban life. Thus, the city offers tax discounts in exchange for citizen’s participation in social, health, education, and economic development programs that foster development.
• Discounts for early payment. The annual IPTU in Belo Horizonte can be paid in eleven equal installments, due on the 15th of each month between February and December. Taxpayers who make a minimum of two installments by January 20 receive a 7 percent discount for paying in advance, and historically a large number of taxpayers chose this option. These advance payments guarantee sufficient revenues to meet financial commitments in the beginning of the fiscal year, which runs from January to December.

Evaluating the Results

The final part of the reform is to verify the results. In Belo Horizonte, this evaluation confirmed the success of the entire planning and implementation process, and is a source of information for future improvements. This success can be measured in part by the increase in early payments, which illustrates taxpayer acceptance of the model. Table 3 compares increases in numerous measures from 2009 to 2010, and table 4 compares increases in IPTU revenues for the first six months of both years.

Nevertheless, all of these achievements can be lost over the long term if certain conditions are not met. One such condition is to institutionalize the periodic updating of property values used to calculate the property tax. This is critical since the strategic planning for this reform was motivated precisely by the long period during which the Belo Horizonte land values map had remained unchanged, creating discrepancies from actual market prices and eroding city revenues.

A second condition is to create mechanisms that both guarantee the technical quality of tax assessments and relieve the local government of the political burden of performing the necessary updates. The objective is to make the updating procedure a legal obligation of a technical nature instead of a political decision.

Another option considered was the creation of an assessment committee to perform mass valuations coordinated by municipal authorities. Such a committee would bring together collaborators from entities that operate in the real estate market, such as brokers, builders, private assessors, or financing entities. This measure could help to mollify the political overtones that permeate the property tax system and develop property reassessment programs that rely on participants instead of critics.

Belo Horizonte’s successful experience (albeit with room for improvement) can serve as a reference for other cities that expect to update their property cadastre and their guidelines for mass assessment. Table 5 outlines some of the issues to be considered.

References

Afonso, José, et al. 2010. The urban property tax (IPTU) in Brazil. Unpublished research report. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Carvalho Júnior, Pedro Humberto Bruno de. 2010. Defasagens na cobrança de IPTU. Desafios do Desenvolvimento 61 (January/February): 32.

De Cesare, Claudia M. 2010. Overview of the property tax in Latin America. Working Paper. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

IPEA (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada). 2009. https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/comunicado/090827_comunicadoipea28.pdf (27August).

Smolka, Martim, and Claudia De Cesare. 2009. Necessária, revisão requer transparência. Folha de São Paulo, October 14.

About the Author

Omar Pinto Domingos has a law degree from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and has a postgraduate degree in administration of municipal taxation from the Center for Specialization in Law, in association with the Gama Filho University. He is a fiscal auditor and property tax manager in the Municipality of Belo Horizonte, and has participated on many tax reform commissions. He is also a frequent lecturer on fiscal and taxation themes in programs sponsored by the Lincoln Institute’s Program on Latin America and the Caribbean. This article is based on his presentation to a seminar in Curitiba cosponsored with Brazil’s Ministry of Cities in May 2010.