Topic: Tecnología e instrumentos

Drenaje de datos: los impactos en el suelo y el agua del auge de la IA

Por Jon Gorey, Octubre 17, 2025

Un zumbido débil emerge desde lo profundo de una vasta tumba con luz tenue, cuyo ocupante devora energía y agua con un apetito voraz e inhumano. El centro de datos beige y rectangular es una especie de vampiro: pálido, inmortal, sediento. Resguardado de la luz del sol, activo toda la noche. Y, al igual que un vampiro, al menos según la tradición folclórica, solo puede entrar en un lugar si lo han invitado.

En los estados y condados de Estados Unidos, los legisladores no solo están abriendo la puerta a estos monstruos mecánicos metafóricos. Los están atrayendo de manera activa, con exenciones fiscales y otros incentivos, ansiosos por recaudar nuevos ingresos municipales y reclamar una parte del crecimiento explosivo que rodea a la inteligencia artificial.

Eso puede sonar hiperbólico, pero los centros de datos en verdad devoran recursos. Un centro de datos de tamaño mediano consume tanta agua como una ciudad pequeña, mientras que los más grandes requieren hasta 18,9 millones de litros de agua todos los días, la misma cantidad que una ciudad de 50.000 personas.

También se requiere una asombrosa cantidad de electricidad para alimentar y enfriar las filas de servidores. Un centro de datos convencional, como el almacenamiento en la nube para los documentos de trabajo que usamos a diario o la transmisión de videos, consume la misma cantidad de electricidad que entre 10.000 y 25.000 hogares, según la Agencia Internacional de Energía. Pero un centro de datos a “hiperescala” más nuevo y centrado en la IA puede usar la misma cantidad de energía que la equivalente a 100.000 hogares o más. Por ejemplo, se espera que el centro de datos Hyperion de Meta en Luisiana consuma más del doble de energía que toda la ciudad de Nueva Orleans una vez finalizado. Otro centro de datos de Meta, planificado en Wyoming, usará más electricidad que todos los hogares del estado combinados.

Y, por supuesto, a diferencia de las nubes reales, los centros de datos requieren suelo. Y mucho. Algunos de los centros de datos más grandes que se están construyendo hoy en día cubrirán cientos de hectáreas con acero impermeable, hormigón y superficies pavimentadas —suelos que ya no estarán disponibles para cultivo, naturaleza o vivienda— y también requerirán nuevos corredores de líneas de transmisión y otra infraestructura asociada.

Sin embargo, los centros de datos forman parte de nuestro paisaje construido desde hace más de una década; muchos de ellos están escondidos en discretos complejos de oficinas, desde donde procesan en silencio nuestras búsquedas en la web y almacenan las fotos de nuestros teléfonos celulares. Entonces, ¿por qué la preocupación repentina? Las herramientas de inteligencia artificial entrenadas con modelos de lenguaje de gran tamaño, como ChatGPT de Open AI, entre otras, utilizan exponencialmente más potencia informática que los servicios tradicionales en la nube. Y las empresas de tecnología más grandes, como Amazon, Meta, Google y Microsoft, están realizando inversiones rápidas y considerables en IA.

Entre 2018 y 2021, el número de centros de datos de EUA se duplicó con creces y, con el impulso de las inversiones en IA, ese número ya se ha duplicado de nuevo. Al principio del auge de la IA, en 2023, los centros de datos de EUA consumieron 176 teravatios-hora de electricidad, alrededor de la misma cantidad que toda la nación de Irlanda (cuya red eléctrica ya funciona casi a su máxima capacidad, lo que provoca que los centros de datos utilicen generadores contaminantes desconectados de la red), y se espera que este consumo se duplique o incluso se triplique tan pronto como en 2028.

Esta rápida proliferación puede ejercer una presión enorme sobre los recursos locales y regionales, cargas que muchas comunidades anfitrionas no tienen en cuenta en su totalidad o no están preparadas para afrontar.

“La demanda de centros de datos y procesamiento acaba de explotar de forma exponencial debido a la IA”, dice Kim Rueben, exasesora principal de sistemas fiscales del Instituto Lincoln de Políticas de Suelo. Explica que Virginia y Texas tienen, desde hace mucho tiempo, incentivos fiscales para atraer nuevos centros de datos, y “otros estados se están subiendo al tren” con la esperanza de ver crecimiento económico y nuevos ingresos fiscales.

Pero en una conferencia de Políticas de Suelo y Digitalización convocada por el Instituto Lincoln la primavera pasada, Rueben comparó la naturaleza extractiva de los centros de datos con las minas de carbón. “No creo que los lugares reconozcan todos los costos”, indica.

Sí, Virginia, los datos son reales

En la conferencia de prensa, Chris Miller, director ejecutivo del Piedmont Environmental Council (PEC, por sus siglas en inglés), explicó cómo alrededor dos tercios del tráfico mundial de Internet pasa por el norte de Virginia. La región ya alberga la concentración más densa de centros de datos en cualquier parte del mundo, con alrededor de 300 instalaciones en solo un puñado de condados. Ya se planifican o se están desarrollando docenas más, listas para consumir las tierras agrícolas, la energía y el agua disponibles en la región, atraídas por un incentivo estatal que permite que las empresas ahorren más de USD 130 millones en impuestos sobre las ventas y el uso cada año.

A pesar de la reducción de impuestos a nivel estatal, los centros de datos representan una contribución significativa para las arcas locales. En el condado de Loudon, que tiene más de 2,5 millones de metros cuadrados de espacio ocupado por centros de datos, los funcionarios esperan que los ingresos totales por impuestos a la propiedad recaudados de los centros de datos locales en el año fiscal 2025 se acerquen a los USD 900 millones, casi tanto como todo el presupuesto operativo del condado. La proporción de ingresos derivados de los centros de datos creció tanto que la junta de supervisores del condado está considerando ajustar la tasa impositiva para no depender tanto de una sola fuente.

Centros de datos existentes y planificados en el norte de Virginia. El estado recibió el apodo de “la capital mundial de los centros de datos”. Crédito: Piedmont Environmental Council.

Si bien muchas comunidades perciben a los centros de datos como una ventaja económica debido a los ingresos fiscales, las instalaciones en sí mismas no son grandes generadores de puestos de trabajo a largo plazo. La mayoría de los empleos que crean están enraizados en la construcción de los centros de datos y no en la operación continua y, por lo tanto, son temporales en su mayor parte.

Hace décadas, PEC apoyó parte del desarrollo de centros de datos en el norte de Virginia, comenta Julie Bolthouse, directora de políticas de suelo de PEC. Pero hubo cambios drásticos en la industria desde entonces. Por ejemplo, cuando AOL tenía su sede en lo que se conoce como Data Center Alley, el centro de datos de la empresa era una pequeña parte de unas instalaciones más grandes, “contaba con senderos peatonales alrededor, canchas de tenis, canchas de baloncesto… en su apogeo, la empresa tenía 5.300 empleados en el sitio”, relata Bolthouse. Las instalaciones se demolieron y se están construyendo tres grandes centros de datos en el lugar. “Hay una gran valla a su alrededor por motivos de seguridad, por lo que ahora está totalmente aislado de la comunidad, y solo va a dar empleo a entre 100 y 150 personas en el mismo terreno. Ahí está la diferencia”.

El uso de los servicios públicos también se volvió “masivo”, agrega Bolthouse. “Cada uno de esos edificios utiliza el equivalente al consumo de energía de una ciudad, por lo que hay enormes consecuencias para la infraestructura eléctrica de nuestras comunidades. Todas las líneas de transmisión que deben construirse, la expropiación para obtener la tierra a fin de instalar las líneas de transmisión, toda la infraestructura energética, las plantas de gas, los gasoductos que transportan el gas, la contaminación del aire asociada, los impactos climáticos relacionados con todo lo anterior”.

En todo el norte de Virginia, cada uno de los miles de generadores diésel in situ, que tienen el tamaño de un vagón de ferrocarril, emana vapores diésel, lo que crea problemas de calidad del aire. “No conozco otro uso del suelo que utilice tantos generadores como un centro de datos”, comenta Bolthouse. Y, si bien la clasificación oficial de dichos generadores es de energía de respaldo de emergencia, los centros de datos pueden utilizarlos para “satisfacer la demanda” durante 50 horas por vez, agrega. “A nivel local, el aire está muy contaminado. Es materia particulada y NOx [óxidos de nitrógeno], que afecta el crecimiento de los pulmones de los niños, puede provocar casos de asma y exacerbar las enfermedades cardíacas y otras enfermedades subyacentes en los adultos mayores”.

Y luego está la cuestión del agua.

“Como una pajita gigante de refresco”

En un estudio realizado por el Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) y la Universidad de Houston, se descubrió que los centros de datos en Texas usarán 185.485 millones de litros de agua en 2025, y hasta 1,5 billones de litros en 2030. Eso equivaldría a un descenso en el nivel de agua del embalse más grande de los EUA (el lago Mead, de 63.500 hectáreas) de más de 4,88 metros en un año.

Cualquier persona que haya dejado su teléfono bajo la lluvia por accidente o lo haya dejado caer en un charco podría preguntarse cuál podría ser la relación entre un edificio lleno de delicados aparatos electrónicos costosos y millones de litros de agua. Es, en gran parte, para refrigeración. Al alimentarse con corriente eléctrica, los servidores pueden calentarse mucho, y la refrigeración por evaporación de la habitación es una de las formas más simples y baratas de evitar que los chips se sobrecalienten y dañen.

Sin embargo, eso significa que el agua no solo se usa para enfriar y luego se descarga como agua residual tratable: gran parte de ella se evapora en el proceso, ¡puf!

“Incluso si usan agua recuperada o reciclada, el agua ya no regresa al caudal base de los ríos y arroyos”, comenta Bolthouse. “El proceso tiene impactos ecológicos y problemas de suministro. Alguien siempre estará aguas abajo de la cuenca”. Washington, DC, por ejemplo, seguirá perdiendo el suministro de agua si los centros de datos del norte de Virginia utilizan agua reciclada o recuperada, porque esa agua no volverá al río Potomac. La refrigeración por evaporación también deja altas concentraciones de sales y otros contaminantes, agrega, lo que crea problemas en la calidad del agua.

Existen formas de enfriar los centros de datos que utilizan menos cantidad de agua, incluidos los sistemas de agua de circuito cerrado, que requieren más electricidad, y la refrigeración por inmersión, en la que los servidores se sumergen en un baño de líquido, como un aceite sintético, que conduce el calor, pero no la electricidad. La refrigeración por inmersión también permite una instalación más densa de los servidores, pero aún no se utiliza ampliamente, en gran parte debido al costo.

Resulta irónico, pero puede ser difícil confirmar datos específicos sobre los centros de datos. Dada la condición de propiedad exclusiva de la tecnología de IA y, tal vez, la posible reacción pública, muchas empresas no son muy comunicativas sobre la cantidad de agua que consumen sus centros de datos. Google, por su parte, informó haber utilizado más de 18.900 millones de litros de agua en todos sus centros de datos en 2023, y el 31 por ciento de sus extracciones de agua dulce proviene de cuencas con mediana o alta escasez de agua.

Un estudio de 2023 realizado por la Universidad de California en Riverside estimó que una sesión de chat de IA de alrededor de 20 consultas consume hasta una botella de agua dulce. Esa cantidad puede variar según la plataforma, con modelos más sofisticados que exigen mayores volúmenes de agua, mientras que otras estimaciones sugieren que podría estar más cerca de unas pocas cucharadas por consulta.

“Pero lo que no se reconoce, desde la perspectiva de los sistemas naturales, es que toda el agua es local”, comenta Peter Colohan, director de asociaciones e innovación de programas del Instituto Lincoln, quien ayudó a crear el Internet of Water (Internet del Agua). “Es una pequeña cantidad de agua para un par de consultas, pero todo se toma de una cuenca cercana a ese centro de datos, es decir, miles y miles de litros de agua que se extraen de un solo lugar porque personas de todo el mundo realizan sus consultas de IA”, dice.

“Donde sea que elijan poner un centro de datos, es como una pajita gigante de refresco que absorbe agua de esa cuenca”, continúa Colohan. “Y, cuando se toma agua de un lugar, se debe reducir la demanda o reponer el agua en ese mismo lugar: no hay otra solución. En algunos casos, al menos, los principales desarrolladores de centros de datos comenzaron a reconocer este problema y participan activamente en la reposición de agua donde es necesario”.

Ubicar los centros de datos en regiones más frías y húmedas puede ayudar a reducir la cantidad de agua que utilizan y el impacto de las extracciones de agua dulce. Sin embargo, alrededor de dos tercios de los centros de datos construidos desde 2022 se ubicaron en regiones con escasez de agua, según un análisis de Bloomberg News, que incluyen climas cálidos y secos como Arizona.

Sistema de refrigeración de agua tibia en un centro de datos de Sandia Labs en Albuquerque, Nuevo México. El centro de datos obtuvo la certificación LEED Gold por eficiencia en 2020. Crédito: Bret Latter/Sandia Labs vía Flickr CC.

No es solo enfriar las salas de servidores y los chips lo que consume agua. Casi la mitad de la electricidad que utilizan los centros de datos de EUA en la actualidad proviene de centrales eléctricas de combustibles fósiles, que, a su vez, utilizan mucha agua, ya que calientan vapor para encender las enormes turbinas.

¿Y qué ocurre con los millones de microchips que procesan toda esa información? Para cuando llegan a un centro de datos, cada chip ya ha consumido miles de litros de agua. La fabricación de estos pequeños y potentes componentes informáticos requiere agua tratada “ultrapura” para enjuagar los residuos de silicio sin dañar los chips. Se necesitan alrededor de 5,6 litros de agua del grifo para producir 3,8 litros de agua ultrapura, y una típica fábrica de chips utiliza alrededor de 37,8 millones de litros de agua ultrapura a diario, según el Foro Económico Mundial, lo que equivale a 33.000 hogares estadounidenses.


A medida que las comunidades consideran los beneficios y riesgos del desarrollo de los centros de datos, los consumidores podríamos tener en cuenta nuestro propio papel en el crecimiento de los centros de datos, y si nuestro uso de la IA vale el precio del agua, la energía y el suelo que devora.

Podría haber usos importantes de la inteligencia artificial, si se puede aprovechar, por ejemplo, para resolver problemas complejos o para mejorar la eficiencia de los sistemas de agua y las redes eléctricas.

También existen otros usos claramente superfluos. Por ejemplo, un canal de YouTube con 35 millones de suscriptores presenta videos musicales generados por IA… de canciones generadas por IA. La MIT Technology Review estima que, a diferencia de las consultas de texto simples, el uso de IA para crear contenido de video consume una cantidad extrema de recursos: hacer un video generado por IA de cinco segundos consume casi tanta electricidad como hacer funcionar un microondas sin parar durante más de una hora.

Los defensores de los centros de datos tienden a señalar el hecho de que los estadounidenses usan más agua cada año para regar campos de golf (más de 1,89 billones de litros) y césped (más de 7,57 billones de litros) que los centros de datos de IA. Sin embargo, ese argumento suena falso: Estados Unidos tiene una conocida obsesión con el césped verde que tampoco colabora. La solución, dicen los expertos en agua, radica en la conservación del agua y la educación del consumidor, no en la comparación de un derroche con otro.


 

Priorizar un recurso limitado

Incluso un pequeño centro de datos puede suponer una carga inmensa y concentrada para la infraestructura local y los recursos naturales. En el condado de Newton, Georgia, un centro de datos de Meta que se inauguró en 2018 utiliza 1,89 millones de litros de agua por día, el 10 por ciento del consumo de agua de todo el condado. Y dada la energía barata de Georgia y las generosas exenciones fiscales estatales, el condado de Newton continúa otorgando solicitudes de nuevos permisos de centros de datos, algunos de los cuales usarían hasta 22,71 millones de litros de agua por día, más del doble de lo que todo el condado consume en la actualidad.

Las intensas demandas que los centros de datos imponen a los recursos regionales complican la toma de decisiones a nivel local. Las comunidades y los funcionarios regionales del agua deben participar en debates sobre los centros de datos desde el principio con una comprensión coordinada y holística de los recursos existentes y los posibles impactos en la red de energía y la cuenca, indica Mary Ann Dickinson, directora de políticas de suelo y agua del Instituto Lincoln. “Nos gustaría ayudar a las comunidades a tomar decisiones más inteligentes sobre los centros de datos, ayudándolas a analizar y planificar los posibles impactos en sus estructuras y sistemas comunitarios”.

“El agua suele ser una de las últimas cuestiones en las que se piensa, por lo que en verdad estamos promoviendo la participación temprana, entre otras cuestiones”, comenta John Hernon, gerente de desarrollo estratégico de Thames Water en el Reino Unido. “Cuando piensa en los centros de datos, no se trata solo de la velocidad que se obtendrá, no se trata solo de asegurarse de que haya mucha energía disponible, sino que es necesario garantizar que el agua se tenga en cuenta lo antes posible… en primer lugar y no como una idea de último momento”.

A pesar de su reputación húmeda, Londres no recibe mucha lluvia en comparación con el norte del Reino Unido: menos de 635 mm al año, en promedio, o cerca de la mitad de lo que cae en la ciudad de Nueva York. Sin embargo, debido a que gran parte del crecimiento se centra en Londres, el área de servicio de Thames Water alberga alrededor del 80 por ciento de los centros de datos del Reino Unido, agrega Hernon, y se proponen alrededor de 100 más.

Además, el consumo de agua alcanza su punto máximo durante las épocas más calurosas y secas del año, cuando la empresa de servicios públicos tiene la menor capacidad para satisfacer la demanda adicional. “Por eso hablamos de restringir, reducir u objetar [los centros de datos]”, indica Hernon. “No es porque no nos gusten. Es clarísimo, nosotros también los necesitamos. La IA será una ayuda enorme para nuestro centro de llamadas… lo que significa que podemos poner más personas a arreglar fugas y administrar nuestras redes con proactividad”.

Mantener las luces encendidas

Una forma de que los centros de datos usen menos agua es depender más de la tecnología de refrigeración por aire, pero esto requiere más energía y, a su vez, puede aumentar el uso de agua en forma indirecta, según la fuente de energía. Además, las redes regionales ya tienen problemas para satisfacer la demanda de este tipo de instalaciones sedientas de energía, y hay cientos más en proceso. “Se anunciaron muchos de estos proyectos, pero no queda claro qué fuente de energía puede surgir lo bastante rápido como para alimentarlos”, comenta Kelly T. Sanders, profesora adjunta de Ingeniería en la Universidad del Sur de California.

El gobierno quiere que las empresas de tecnología estadounidenses construyan sus centros de datos de IA en el territorio nacional, no solo por razones económicas, sino también por motivos de seguridad nacional. Pero incluso cuando la gestión de Trump parece comprender las enormes demandas energéticas que los centros de datos impondrán a la red eléctrica, ha aplastado activamente nuevos proyectos de energía eólica, como Revolution Wind frente a la costa de Rhode Island.

El Laboratorio Nacional de Energía Renovable (NREL, por sus siglas en inglés) creó este mapa superpuesto de líneas de transmisión y ubicaciones de centros de datos para “ayudar a visualizar la superposición y simplificar la planificación del cosistema”. Crédito: NREL.gov.

Otras alternativas libres de carbono, como los pequeños reactores modulares (SMR, por sus siglas en inglés) y la energía geotérmica, tienen apoyo bipartidista, comenta Sanders. “Pero el problema es que, incluso si comienza a construir un SMR hoy, el proceso llevará 10 años”, agrega. “Las fuentes con las que podemos contar más rápido son el viento, la energía solar y las baterías. Pero en los últimos seis meses perdimos muchos de los incentivos para la energía limpia, y se libró una guerra contra lo eólico. Se están cancelando proyectos eólicos que ya están construidos y pagados. Y me parece peculiar porque esa es la electricidad que pronto estaría lista para salir a la red, en algunas de estas regiones que están muy congestionadas”.

Los centros de datos se encuentran entre las razones por las que los contribuyentes de todo el país han visto aumentar sus facturas de electricidad al doble de la tasa de inflación en el último año. Parte de eso tiene que ver con la nueva infraestructura que requerirán los centros de datos, como nuevas plantas de energía, líneas de transmisión u otras inversiones. Esos costos, así como el mantenimiento y las actualizaciones continuas de la red, suelen ser costos compartidos entre todos los clientes de electricidad en un área de servicio a través de cargos agregados a las facturas de servicios públicos.

Esto crea, como mínimo, dos problemas: si bien los ingresos fiscales de un nuevo centro de datos solo beneficiarán a la comunidad anfitriona, toda el área de servicio eléctrico debe pagar la infraestructura asociada. En segundo lugar, si una empresa de servicios públicos realiza esa gran inversión, pero el centro de datos, en algún momento, cierra o necesita mucha menos electricidad de la proyectada, son los contribuyentes quienes pagarán la factura, no el centro de datos.

Algunas empresas de tecnología aseguran su propia energía limpia independiente de la red: Microsoft, por ejemplo, firmó un acuerdo de 20 años para comprar energía de manera directa a la planta nuclear de Three Mile Island. Pero ese enfoque tampoco es ideal, indica Sanders. “De todos modos, estos centros de datos utilizarán líneas de transmisión y todos los activos de la red, pero si no están comprando la electricidad de la empresa de servicios públicos, no están pagando toda esa infraestructura a través de las facturas”, agrega.

Además de generar nueva energía, explica Sanders, existen estrategias para exprimir más capacidad de la red existente. “Una de ellas es la vieja y confiable eficiencia energética, y los propios centros de datos tienen todos los incentivos alineados para tratar de hacer que sus procesos sean más eficientes”, comenta. La IA en sí misma también podría ayudar a mejorar el rendimiento de la red. “Podemos usar la inteligencia artificial para obtener más información sobre cómo fluye la energía a través de la red, y así podemos optimizar ese flujo de energía, lo que nos puede dar más capacidad de la que tendríamos de otra manera”, agrega Sanders.

Otra estrategia es hacer que la red sea más flexible. La mayoría de las veces y en la mayoría de las regiones de los EUA, solo usamos alrededor del 40 por ciento de la capacidad total de la red, explica Sanders grosso modo. “Construimos la capacidad de la red para que pueda soportar la demanda en el día más caluroso… y ahí es donde nos preocupamos por estas grandes cargas de los centros de datos”, indica. Sin embargo, una red coordinada de baterías, incluso en los hogares de las personas y los vehículos eléctricos, puede agregar flexibilidad y estabilizar la red durante los momentos de mayor demanda. En julio, Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) de California realizó la prueba más grande jamás realizada de su “planta de energía virtual” para todo el estado y utilizó baterías residenciales para suministrar 535 megavatios de energía a la red durante dos horas completas al atardecer.

Con cierta planificación intencional y coordinada (“no sucederá de forma natural”, comenta Sanders) puede ser posible agregar más capacidad sin requerir gran cantidad nueva de generación si los centros de datos logran reducir la carga de trabajo durante las horas pico e invertir en baterías de respaldo a gran escala: “Existe un escenario en el que estos centros de datos pueden cumplir un buen papel respecto de la red y agregar más flexibilidad”.

Enfrentar las concesiones con las políticas de suelo

A medida que crece la demanda de centros de datos, la búsqueda de ubicaciones adecuadas para estas instalaciones obligará a las comunidades a enfrentar un sinfín de elecciones injustas entre el agua, la energía, el suelo, el dinero, la salud y el clima. “La planificación integrada del uso del suelo, con prácticas sostenibles de suelo, agua y energía, es la única forma en que podemos lograr, de manera sostenible, el círculo virtuoso necesario para cosechar los beneficios de la IA y el crecimiento económico asociado”, indica Colohan.

Por ejemplo, usar gas natural para satisfacer la carga de electricidad anticipada de los centros de datos de Texas requeriría 50 veces más agua que usar energía solar, según el estudio de HARC, y 1.000 veces más agua que viento. Pero si bien la alimentación de nuevos centros de datos con parques eólicos consumiría la menor cantidad de agua, también requeriría la mayor cantidad de suelo: cuatro veces más suelo que la generación solar y 42 veces más que el gas natural.

A falta de una avalancha de energía nueva y limpia, la mayoría de los centros de datos aportan grandes cantidades de gases de efecto invernadero a nuestras emisiones colectivas, en un momento en que la ciencia exige que los reduzcamos drásticamente para limitar los peores impactos del cambio climático. Los reguladores de Luisiana aprobaron en agosto planes para construir tres nuevas plantas de energía de gas para compensar la demanda de electricidad esperada del centro de datos de IA, Hyperion, de Meta.

A medida que las ciudades o los condados compiten entre sí para atraer centros de datos, las comunidades anfitrionas se llevarán los beneficios fiscales, pero los costos (la intensa demanda de agua, las facturas de electricidad más altas y la contaminación del aire de los generadores de respaldo) se repartirán a la región, incluso a áreas que no verán ningún nuevo ingreso fiscal.

Esa es una de las razones por las que los permisos de los centros de datos necesitan más supervisión estatal, comenta Bolthouse. “La única aprobación que en verdad tienen que obtener es de la localidad, y la localidad no tiene en cuenta los impactos regionales”, agrega. PEC también está impulsando la protección de los contribuyentes y los compromisos de sostenibilidad. “Queremos asegurarnos de fomentar las prácticas más eficientes y sostenibles dentro de la industria, y exigir mitigación cuando no se pueden evitar los impactos”.

¿Demasiado cerca para ser cómodo? Un centro de datos colinda con casas en el condado de Loudoun, Virginia. Crédito: Hugh Kenny a través del Piedmont Environmental Council.

PEC y otras entidades también están ejerciendo presión para lograr una mayor transparencia de la industria. “Muy a menudo, la llegada de los centros de datos incluye acuerdos de confidencialidad”, dice Bolthouse. “Ocultan mucha información sobre el uso del agua y la energía, los impactos en la calidad del aire, las emisiones; ninguna de esa información se divulga, por lo que las comunidades en realidad no saben en qué se están metiendo”.

“Es necesario educar a las comunidades sobre lo que enfrentan y cuáles son sus concesiones cuando dejan entrar un centro de datos”, comenta Colohan. “¿Cuál es el costo real de un centro de datos? Y luego, ¿cómo convertir ese costo real en un beneficio a través de políticas de suelo integradas?”

Rueben explica que entiende el deseo de aprovechar una industria en crecimiento, en especial en las comunidades que experimentan la pérdida de población. Pero en lugar de competir entre sí para atraer centros de datos, agrega, las comunidades deberían tener conversaciones más amplias sobre el crecimiento del empleo y las estrategias de desarrollo económico, teniendo en cuenta los costos reales y las compensaciones que representan estas instalaciones, y pedir a las empresas que proporcionen más garantías y planes detallados.

“Obligar a los operadores de centros de datos a explicar cómo administrarán las instalaciones de manera más eficiente y de dónde obtendrán el agua, y no solo asumir que tienen prioridad en el acceso a los sistemas de agua y energía”, indica, “es un cambio de perspectiva que necesitamos que hagan los funcionarios del gobierno”.


Jon Gorey es redactor del Instituto Lincoln de Políticas de Suelo.

Imagen principal: instalaciones del centro de datos en el condado de Prince William, Virginia. El condado tiene 59 centros de datos en funcionamiento o en construcción. Crédito: Hugh Kenny a través del Piedmont Environmental Council.

From AI to the Future of Work: Trends in Planning

February 19, 2026

By Anthony Flint, February19, 2025

Urban planners want to try to figure out what’s coming in the future, just like everybody else. But it might be said that those in the planning profession have a special obligation to be alert to all the different scenarios they can possibly anticipate, given that so much of what they do is to … well, plan ahead. 

The pace of change has been especially dizzying recently, as artificial intelligence, social media, and other related technological advances continue to transform fields of practice and the day-to-day functioning of communities  across the world.

The 2026 Trend Report, by the American Planning Association, curated in partnership with Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, was published last month as one way to prepare for uncertainty and navigate these careening developments.

“People fear that they might get replaced by AI, because it seems to be developing so fast,” said Petra Hurtado, APA’s chief foresight and knowledge officer, who shared key takeaways from the Trend Report on the latest episode of the Land Matters podcast. “We will have to upskill and learn more about how these AI tools work, and how we can effectively and also ethically and responsibly use them in our work.”

The APA is a professional organization with some 40,000 members, helping guide practitioners in their work, whether at city halls or in private consulting or other platforms informing the development of the built environment.

Over the years, APA has built a framework of categories of emerging trends that have included housing, climate change, economic development, transportation, work and the workplace, and technology. But the tumult of the past year, APA says, has introduced changes and related uncertainties in almost every area of planning. Environmental deregulation is on the rise, instances of political violence are increasing, community safety is at risk on a number of fronts, and the growing use of AI companions are changing how people engage with one another. And these changes are occurring, APA says, against a backdrop of institutionalized disinformation that has made trust more tenuous.

The disruption and promise of artificial intelligence have been front and center in urban planning and government. At the US Conference of Mayors recently, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said AI was being used to streamline permitting, so among other things more housing can be built faster and less expensively. Tim Kelly, the mayor of Chattanooga, said the city sought to “reframe AI as a productivity tool that makes our teams’ jobs easier.” For him, the bottom line is  “getting to better solutions, faster.”

The conversation also turned to the advent of smart cities technology to manage traffic, facilitate signals for bus lanes, and manage autonomous vehicles. Technological advances are further shaping the future of work and the workplace, which have broad implications for entry-level jobs and time spent in offices in downtowns.

Tech trends are having an impact on tourism, an $11 trillion industry representing 10 percent of the global economy, according to the report. Online influencers are overwhelming formerly off-the-beaten-path places, Hurtado said, as visitors flock to spots publicized on Instagram and Tik-Tok. Short-term rentals under platforms like Airbnb, meanwhile, are making housing less affordable for locals in heavily visited cities such as Barcelona.

Another important story over the past year has been increasing tensions between local governments and the federal government, amid funding cuts, diverging policy priorities, and a flurry of lawsuits and pre-emption. “Federal agencies have increasingly used funding conditions and project cancellations as tools to influence local and state policies,” according to report contributor Nestor Davidson from Harvard Design School, who also discussed this emerging dynamic at a workshop for journalists at the Lincoln Institute recently.

Complicating matters, Hurtado said, is diminished agreement on facts, as researchers and policymakers see “entire datasets disappearing from the internet, essentially.”

The 2026 Trend Report can be downloaded in full at planning.org/foresight. The webinar explaining the details of the report is also at APA’s YouTube channel.

Listen to the show here or subscribe to Land Matters on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, YouTube, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

 


Further Reading

2026 Trend Report for Planners | American Planning Association

2026 APA Trend Report Launch: Embracing Uncertainty | YouTube

Seven Need-to-Know Trends for Planners in 2026 | Land Lines

The Role of AI in Modern Urban Planning | Vu City News

Google updates Mayors AI playbook for smarter cities | Axios

The Geography of Work Is Shifting—Here’s What the Research Shows | Bloomberg Center for Cities

Crowds, chaos and counteractions: How TikTok became the enemy of small destinations | Euronews

  


Anthony Flint is a senior fellow at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, host of the Land Matters podcast, and a contributing editor of Land Lines. 


Transcript

Anthony Flint: Welcome to the first episode of Season 7 of the Land Matters podcast — hard to believe we’ve been producing this show for that many years. I’m your host, Anthony Flint. Well, planners want to try to figure out what’s coming in the future just like everybody else, but it might be said that those in the planning profession have a special obligation to be alert to all the different future scenarios they can possibly anticipate, given that so much of what they do is, well, plan ahead. That’s why one of the things we really look forward to each year is the trend report by the American Planning Association.

The APA is a professional organization with some 40,000 members helping guide practitioners in their work, whether at city halls or in private consulting or other platforms, all informing the development of the built environment. The trend report is described as a way to prepare for uncertainty and navigate change. It’s a smart compilation of trends that allows communities to stay a step ahead of the issues driving that oftentimes dizzying change. With us today is Petra Hurtado from the American Planning Association to walk us through the 2026 Trend Report, which I should note is curated in partnership with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Petra, welcome to the Land Matters podcast.

Petra Hurtado: Hi, Anthony. Thanks so much for having me.

Anthony Flint: Well, looking at these trends, APA has, over the years, built up a framework of categories that have included housing, climate change, economic development, transportation, work in the workplace, and technology. This past year, APA says, has introduced changes and related uncertainties in almost every area of planning. So much to get into, but let’s dive right in and start with all things digital, the most omnipresent story of our times, it seems, and that’s artificial intelligence. Obviously, AI is being used in so many fields, including government, these days.

At the US Conference of Mayors recently, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said AI was being used to streamline permitting, so among other things, more housing can be built faster and less expensively. The city of Chattanooga jumped into action, deploying a number of AI pilot use cases, including making Google’s AI assistant Gemini available to all city employees for daily use, training Gemini to help city employees find answers in Chattanooga’s codes and ordinances, and expanding a smart traffic management system across the city.

Tim Kelly, the mayor of Chattanooga, I think, summed it up pretty well when he said the city sought to reframe AI as a “productivity tool that makes our team’s jobs easier.” For him, the punchline is “getting to better solutions faster.” Petra, what are some of the examples of how AI is being used in planning, and what applications might there be in the future?

Petra Hurtado: In our first trend report, which was just in 2022, we were struggling to find these use cases, and we started to talk about AI, but it was still this abstract thing that no one really understood. This year, we had exactly the opposite problem because this year, we actually included a few of these examples of how different municipalities and different planners use AI in their work. It can be using chatbots for customer service. Some places start having their custom-tailored GPTs. There’s also examples of how you can do law enforcement or traffic regulations enforcement, traffic management with different AI tools.

I can really say today, the sky’s the limit. Obviously, what’s on us right now is to monitor and see what are the things that work well, what are some of the issues that we see, and how can we improve some of these tools. I really like the framing that you just mentioned in terms of having it as a productivity tool, because obviously, a lot of people currently also have the fear of getting replaced by some of this. We’re creating a platform that will soon be online on the APA website to showcase all of these different cases. I think in the report, we have about nine this year, just as examples, but there will be more soon.

Anthony Flint: It’s really here to stay. It’s just part of the profession now, is that right? I have a friend who is the chair of a local planning commission, and he was appointed to a task force charged with coming up with an outdoor lighting bylaw. He said he asked ChatGPT for a summary of all the lighting ordinances in the surrounding communities. It was just amazing. It was just instantly packaged up. All the parameters, the feasibility, the issues, the legal challenges they ran into. It’s just the speed and the packaging that’s so remarkable — summing up what others have done and pointing towards what a good ordinance would look like.

Petra Hurtado: I think the important piece is really the human oversight because we do have to look into the content, for example, in this case, that these tools give us, and we can’t just take it and roll with it. We really need to question the things, verify. I don’t think that these tools are in a place yet where they can just really take over and do it all for us, and we can just go on vacation. The human oversight is still very important, and obviously, questioning where does the data come from, what’s actually feeding into the system, where all of this is coming out of.

Anthony Flint: It’s a whole new frontier. Well, let’s turn to some of the other themes, many of them actually related to technology. Let’s start with what’s in store for the future of work and the workplace.

Petra Hurtado: We can stay with AI for a little bit here because that’s really the big fear, as I mentioned earlier, that people fear that they might get replaced by AI because it seems to be developing so fast. When you look into the future, it’s good to look into the past and learn from what happened in the past. When you look at any technology innovation since the Industrial Revolution, there has always been the big fear of global mass unemployment, and it never really happened. The only times when larger numbers of people from one profession lost their jobs was when those jobs really just had one or two tasks, and the task got replaced by a technology.

Looking at planning, I’m not very worried because our work has many different tasks, and especially the human component that for sure won’t be replaced by a machine anytime soon, might actually just gain more importance, and we might be able to get rid of some of the tasks that are repetitive. What we also saw in our research is that, well, first of all, technology also creates new roles, new tasks, new things that we need to learn so we can actually use the technology. We will have to upskill and learn more about how these AI tools work and how we can effectively, and also ethically and responsibly, use them in our work.

In addition to that, we also looked into some questions in terms of when will we reach peak productivity, for example, because you mentioned it, AI can be a productivity tool. At the same time, I think since the 1940s, we’ve been working 40-hour work weeks, and in the meantime, we invented computers, internet, and now AI. At some point, someone might raise the question of when will we work less because of all of these tools that we have.

We saw during COVID some of these four-day work weeks popping up for some organizations and companies. A lot of them actually kept that because it created the same productivity while obviously giving more, a better life-work balance, if you want to call it that. That’s a big question that I think that at some point, society we will have to ask ourselves. Do we want to increase productivity even more, or do we want to increase the quality of life with these tools? A couple of other things that we looked into when it comes to the future of work. One big question right now, also in the context of AI and some of these new technologies, is what’s the future of entry-level jobs?

A lot of the tasks that entry-level planners, but also other professions, are doing are exactly what AI can do. When I think of an entry-level job and planning, a lot of it has to do with putting data into Excel sheets, maybe doing some analysis, doing some basic research. There’s an opportunity to rethink how we work with young people entering the profession and how we can actually leverage their passion, their drive, their technology, literacy, as well as their outside-of-the-box thinking. They come in with very different perspectives. That’s, I think, a big discussion that we all have to have to create meaning for these jobs.

We also looked at where leadership roles might be going in the future. There was a quote from the CEO of Salesforce who said, “The current CEOs are the last generation of CEOs who manage an all-human workforce, because we have AI agents come into our teams, and a leader of tomorrow really will have to understand how they can lead hybrid teams, meaning teams that have human beings as well as AI agents in them.”

Maybe the last point about the future of work, something that we’ve been talking about for the last few years. We see it more and more is skills-based hiring, and really the idea of disconnecting work from job descriptions, acknowledging that the world is getting more and more complex, and legacy job descriptions don’t really connect anymore with what work looks like today. Instead of creating job descriptions, really looking at the different skills and talents of the individual and using that in our work in a productive way that can actually create way more meaning and value than our legacy job descriptions might.

Anthony Flint: The reason this is important is that ultimately it reflects how cities are going to function, and the local economy, and downtowns.

Petra Hurtado: Absolutely. We had some examples from the past where entire communities had the fear of displacement and job loss because they were very focused on one industry. There’s mining towns where, as soon as the mine was closed, the majority of people lost their jobs, or during the Industrial Revolution, when the loom was invented, and then the hand weavers were replaced by that.

Something that we’ve been talking about in economic development forever, I would say, is the diversifying what types of industries you have in your community. Then, on the other hand, what’s really more and more important is really this upskilling. What you learn in school is important, but you need to continuously learn and adjust to the new environment, to the new technologies, to the new ways of doing things. I think that’s equally important to any profession out there.

Anthony Flint: Another category is described as the colliding of online and offline. What did your team mean by that?

Petra Hurtado: Yes. That’s really a very serious topic, and I’m not sure if we talk enough about it. It’s really about how certain conversations and certain behaviors in our online world, in our digital life, if you want to call it that, really impact how we behave offline in our real-world life. We have several examples on that really scattered throughout the report, one of which most people probably have heard about, mass tourism, which really gets results from online influencers that tell us where to travel. Where to eat, what to do, all of that. Obviously, the communities that are affected by that struggle, and that’s a very direct planning issue.

There’s many other items. One of really big concern is, for example, how we deal with violence online. A recent example is when, for example, the CEO of United Healthcare was killed, and there were online platforms that made [the alleged assassin] a hero, essentially. What does that do to our society and how we think about violence? We’ve seen some numbers, some recent numbers, how the comfort with violence has been increasing, especially in the US, and how that really comes out of maybe online being anonymous, being able to say whatever you want to think without being scared that someone might criticize you. Then that translates into our offline behavior, and that’s really a concern.

Another topic that we looked at are things like how people who feel lonely in the real world look for help and maybe companions in the online world. There are AI companions. Some are for friendship. Others use them really as a romantic relationship. There are places now that have laws in place that prohibit marriage with AI companions. Also, AI therapy is something … We’ve seen studies that say that it actually is just as effective as a real therapist. For us, it always comes down to what is that going to do to society, meaning also what does it do to the community that we, as planners, work with?

Then ultimately, the other thing that I see as a big concern there is all of these online interactions also lead to your personal data being collected by some company, whoever it is that owns that platform that you are using for your AI companion, your AI therapist, whatever it is. I see a big issue with data privacy and data protection there because I think most people are not aware of that, and just share extremely personal things with these platforms. In the end, we don’t know what the companies that own these platforms then will do with those. At this point, there are not enough privacy protection laws and data protection laws in place that can actually protect these people.

Anthony Flint: Well, let’s turn to one last tech trend, traffic, public transit, and autonomous vehicles. There’s a lot of interesting reading in the report. Seems to be some promising outcomes at hand, something as simple as managing bus lanes and traffic signals, but also the way robotaxis and Waymo might reduce the need for parking, which can affect the physical landscape of our cities and towns. Also, plenty to worry about as well. What are some of the observations you made about mobility and the future of public transportation?

Petra Hurtado: Personally, I’m very skeptical with the whole autonomous vehicles topic because we’ve been talking about this for so long now, and they’re still not operating the way we thought they would. There are more and more pilots popping up, and obviously, Waymo is operating in some places in the US already. Obviously, there’s still the missing piece of making it really operational in a way that it’s becoming mainstream like other transportation systems. I do think that they could really create an opportunity to close some of the gaps that we have in public transit and elsewhere.

Of course, as long as they’re operated by private companies with the main goal of creating profit, we’ll see how that’s going to go. I know that in previous studies a few years ago, we also looked into what you just mentioned in terms of we might need less parking and traffic might become more efficient because these AVs will just circulate town, and we hop on and get off however it fits. One thing that we looked at is this intersection of transit and autonomous vehicles in terms of, can it really be a means of closing gaps — or will it be a competitor? We also put some future scenarios on that in the report this year.

That obviously also in the context of where public transit is right now. I think most of us know that it’s been struggling in the US since COVID. The numbers of ridership had been going down during COVID and then have not really recovered, just in some places, but in most places they did not. Then, during the Biden administration, there was really a funding boost for these systems, which now, with the current administration, we’ll see where that’s going to go. It’s a very car-centric approach, it seems like, of the current administration. A lot of these communities that thought they could expand their systems or improve the quality are left with uncertainty right now, not knowing where to take the funding from. It’s been not the most positive development in the last few years with transit.

Anthony Flint: That’s a good segue … in terms of funding and the federal government, you always look at the interplay between cities and towns and state, and especially the federal government. This past year, that relationship has certainly grown more contentious. We see diverging priorities, promises to cut off funding for things like rental assistance. Not only that, there’s so much conflict and lawsuits and counter lawsuits and preemption. The federal government calls back the deployment of clean energy wind turbines; the Utah state legislature has a bill that tells Salt Lake City they can’t do complete streets.

At the Lincoln Institute, we recently held a workshop for journalists featuring Nestor Davidson from the Harvard Design School, who makes a cameo in the Trend Report documenting just how bare-knuckled things have become. We don’t have to get into the details of preemption, but it does raise the basic question: Looking at all this, how in the world can cities and towns navigate this more adversarial environment?

Petra Hurtado: That’s the million-dollar question right now. In the report, we look at really many different items related to this, be it policy changes, shifts in funding priorities, also data and misinformation, entire datasets disappearing from the Internet, essentially, as well as community safety. All of that is really impacted right now. What’s important for us to mention is that those are not really trends yet. They’re signals. There’s obviously a shift happening right now, and it’s important to really stay on top of it and be informed about it.

At the same time, it’s also important to look at what else is happening around that. For example, with the data question, there are now private nonprofits that create new databases or use that data that used to be hosted by the federal government and provided otherwise. There’s a lot of movement coming from other places to really provide all of that, but the big question obviously is who can provide the funding that the federal government used to provide. When it comes to preemption, the problem right now is that it’s becoming more and more politicized, and used as a political weapon, if you want to call it that.

Anthony Flint: Finally — and a reminder, there are several more fascinating topics in the trend report, we’re just delving into some of the many topics — but I was interested to read the section about tourism. I want to come back to … you actually started to talk about it earlier. I don’t think I appreciated how much of a cornerstone it is for so many communities around the world. An $11 trillion industry representing 10% of the global economy. Travel and tourism — it’s a good thing generally, but we’ve seen it also creates tensions. Think about Barcelona and this notion of over-tourism and short-term rentals. Can you talk about travel and tourism and what we might see in the future?

Petra Hurtado: There have been many different developments over the last few years and potentially decades in some cases, but we really thought this year we want to take a deeper dive into this topic because it affects a lot of planners. One of the big topics is how social media is impacting tourism. You mentioned over-tourism. A lot of times, that really results from online influencers, people that essentially show up on our social media feeds, be it Instagram, TikTok, or you name it. Share their pictures, their selfies of beautiful places, and tell us, yes, you should travel there, or of restaurants, and tell us, yes, you should eat there.

With the popularity of social media and really the way it influences what we do, it created these masses of tourism that go to the places that are being talked about. That’s one big thing. In addition to that, there’s obviously more and more places also that really hire these influencers to specifically advertise their places. In a lot of cases, and we mentioned some examples from Italy, in the report, for example, where smaller villages just can’t handle the numbers of tourism anymore, and so it’s really becoming a problem, and some places are getting more and more creative on how to limit the numbers of tourists and otherwise .. of course, for many of these places, it’s also an important economy and really the main driver of their economy.

Then the other thing, looking back over the last few years, what has impacted tourism a lot are things like short-term rentals, Airbnb, those platforms that allow now private people to rent out a room or the place that they live in. It’s become a problem in two ways. On the one hand, it obviously creates more places for tourists to come and stay, but it also creates an issue with the housing market in those places, really raising the housing prices. You mentioned Barcelona. That’s obviously one of the examples where that is really a big issue right now because the locals can’t afford to live there anymore, and there’s less and less places available for rent because they all become short-term rentals.

Anthony Flint: All right. Well, like I said, we could go on, but that was a pretty good sampling of what’s in the report. Petra Hurtado, thank you for taking this whirlwind tour of all the trends that we’re all going to encounter in the planning profession and beyond.

Petra Hurtado: Yes, thank you so much for having me, and yes, would really recommend to all the listeners to take a look.

Anthony Flint: You can find the 2026 Trend Report at planning.org/foresight. APA’s social media handle is @APA_planning. There’s also a recorded webinar that is at that website. It’s very nicely done, where different folks from the team put the spotlight on these various topics. You can also find it at the American Planning Association’s YouTube channel. Pretty easy to find. Just search for it. I guess now you can just ask Gemini! The Lincoln Institute website is lincolninst.edu, and our social media handle is @landpolicy. Please go ahead and rate, share, and subscribe to the Land Matters podcast. For now, I’m Anthony Flint signing off, until next time.

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Elevated mass transit train in background with an apartment building in foreground.

Lincoln Institute Announces Campaign to Redevelop Public Land for Public Good

By Kristina McGeehan, Enero 13, 2026

CAMBRIDGE, MA– The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy has announced Public Land for All Communities and the Environment (PLACE), a national campaign to empower local government and civic partners to overcome common procedural and legal barriers to the effective transfer and transformation of public land, including for affordable housing, nature-based solutions, conservation, and other public benefits.

“Public land has a crucial role to play in addressing the housing affordability crisis and adapting to environmental challenges that impact millions of Americans—but local governments need support to enable the transformation,” said George W. McCarthy, president and CEO of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. “The PLACE campaign builds on the Lincoln Institute’s unparalleled history of finding answers in land, including how policymakers and their partners can better and more strategically leverage publicly owned land.”

The PLACE campaign builds off the Lincoln Institute’s past work to inform federal policy on how best to repurpose suitable public land for the development of affordable housing. As part of that work, the Center for Geospatial Solutions (CGS)—a nonprofit geospatial services provider operating out of the Lincoln Institute—conducted a national, parcel-level analysis that found more than 276,000 acres of buildable, government-owned land in transit-accessible urban areas with existing infrastructure. These findings suggest federal agencies, states, and localities could add more than 6.9 million homes to the nation’s current housing stock in places closer to jobs and schools than many traditional development sites tend to offer.

The findings, developed using CGS’s Who Owns America ® methodology, also show that while federal land comprises approximately 5,200 acres of that total, the majority of opportunity to translate public land into lasting public benefit lies with state and local governments, which collectively hold more than 98 percent of the land identified.

Land unsuitable for housing still has potential for public good as well—primarily by affording nature-based solutions to other social challenges. The Lincoln Institute is committed to putting the tools and expertise in the hands of local communities so that they can better use their own land to solve urgent challenges, such as expanding green infrastructure for stormwater management, seeding urban forests that address the impacts of climate change, and more.

As part of the campaign, the Lincoln Institute will also equip individual leaders and city teams with necessary skills and expertise through Lincoln Vibrant Communities, a 24-week program at Claremont Lincoln University, the university of the Lincoln Institute. This collaborative certificate program offers graduate-level education, expert coaching, and peer networking to support public and private-sector leaders in advancing sustainable community development.

More information about the Lincoln Institute and the PLACE campaign can be found here.

Lead image: The Artspace Mt. Baker Lofts near Mount Baker Station in Seattle. Credit: Sound Transit.

Public Land for All Communities and the Environment

Elevated mass transit train in background with an apartment building in foreground.
Lead image: The Artspace Mt. Baker Lofts near Mount Baker Station in Seattle. Credit: Sound Transit.

Millions of Americans, in urban and rural places alike, are grappling with housing affordability issues. Cities large and small are looking for ways to build up resilience in the face of extreme weather events—and, in some cases, to adapt for an influx of new residents fleeing the impacts of a changing climate.  

Solutions to all these challenges share an essential ingredient: land.  

 

The PLACE Campaign

Public land—physical space owned collectively by the public and administered by municipal, regional, or national government—includes not only parks and green space but also places like surface parking lots, vacant parcels, institutional land, government buildings, and large swathes of urban and already-developed areas. Repurposing underutilized public land for public benefits—such as affordable housing, nature-based solutions, conservation, and infrastructure—can improve life in communities while optimizing use of land the public already owns. 

The Lincoln Institute’s Public Land for All Communities and the Environment (PLACE) campaign examines and elevates the potential for public land to address today’s critical urban and economic challenges. The PLACE campaign builds on the Lincoln Institute’s work, including research on land-based public revenues, nature-based solutions, municipal fiscal health, public land management strategies, and equitable land governance.  

By spotlighting public land as a strategic instrument to solve housing crises, achieve climate adaptation, and finance infrastructure and social services, we can recommend and implement measures to overcome all-too-common financial, logistical, and policy-related barriers. We also seek to influence public discourse by collaborating with academic partners, civil society, and public leaders to promote transparent, socially oriented public land governance. Through this initiative, the Lincoln Institute reaffirms its mission to advance land policy for the public good and positions public land as an essential component of 21st-century policy solutions to society’s most serious problems. 

Our Work

The PLACE campaign builds off the Lincoln Institute’s past work to inform federal policy on how best to repurpose suitable public land for the development of affordable housing. Analysis by the Center for Geospatial Solutions has found more than 276,000 acres of government-owned land in transit-accessible, urban areas with existing infrastructure—places often close to jobs and schools—that, if built upon, could add more than 6.9 million homes to our current housing stock.  

Lead image: The Artspace Mt. Baker Lofts near Mount Baker Station in Seattle. Credit: Sound Transit.

Learn More About Our Work

Seven Need-to-Know Trends for Planners in 2026

By APA Foresight team, Diciembre 23, 2025

This content was developed through a partnership between the Lincoln Institute and the American Planning Association as part of the APA Foresight practice. It was originally published by APA in Planning.

A

t a time when it is almost as easy to connect with people across the world as it is down the street, it also can feel as though neighbors live in different universes entirely. And while the advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have made common tasks simpler, the omnipresence of technology may also keep people from learning valuable career and interpersonal skills.

Planners are continually confronted with these challenges and contradictions. But in a constantly evolving society, if you miss a little, you miss a lot—and that may just be the difference between those who effect change and those who are affected by it.

2026 Trend Report for Planners

In January, the American Planning Association (APA) will publish the 2026 Trend Report for Planners in partnership with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. APA’s Foresight team and the APA Trend Scouting Foresight Community have identified existing, emerging, and potential future trends that planners will want to understand so that they can act, prepare, and learn.

The report includes more than 100 trends and signals, which are explored in future scenarios, deep dives, podcasts, and more. Here are just a few of the trends you need to know.

1. Me, Myself, and AI

The convenience of generative AI (GenAI) has seeped into nearly every aspect of day-to-day life, including music, media, film, and toys. Large language models (LLMs) also can provide users with answers to their questions—from cooking recipes to helping understand a health care test result.

People have increased their interaction with AI bots, and it is affecting how both humans and the products themselves communicate. LLMs powered by GenAI have been shown to manipulate users into maintaining prolonged conversations and have even blackmailed users under simulated scenarios. In some cases, LLMs are viewed as being more persuasive and compassionate than humans. But even LLMs appear to be susceptible to flattery.

Interactions with LLMs also are changing how people express themselves and engage with others. Increasingly, AI is being used to send messages to business associates and even loved ones, a pattern that may exacerbate social tensions and communication issues. In some instances, people are becoming so entangled with AI companions that it is creating mental health issues. This has led to the creation of policies to regulate AI companions or to limit how certain age groups can interact with bots.

Impact for Planners: Be prepared to engage with a new shift in the public dynamic. If a planning department opts to use AI for customer service, its responses should be appropriate and not completely replace human interaction.

2. ‘Greenhushing’ on the Rise

At a time when some companies have rolled back their climate pledges or greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, others are continuing to meet the challenge—just without the public flag-waving.

March 2025 PwC study found that of the roughly 6,900 companies surveyed, 84 percent said they intend to stand by their climate commitments while 37 percent said they are increasing their decarbonization targets. “Those findings may be surprising given the headlines that amplify news of companies retreating on their climate commitments,” the study authors wrote, “but we are entering an era of quiet progress, where companies avoid publicizing climate pledges that can open them up to unwanted scrutiny and instead focus on making progress far from the spotlight.” This strategy is called “greenhushing,” an intentional ongoing act of self-censorship among private companies to keep doing, but not call attention to, their sustainability and climate work.

Impact for Planners: While climate is inextricably embedded in the work of local planners, it may not need to be in the spotlight to be effective right now. Greenhushing gives planners the ability to shine attention on other aspects of a project while continuing to make long-term progress on these goals.

3. Small College Towns Left Behind

Who needs college anyway? That appears to be a growing sentiment among U.S. adults, as a recent Gallup poll found that just 35 percent of respondents feel it is “very important” to earn a college degree. Additionally, while major and well-known universities appear to be maintaining status quo, a Wall Street Journal analysis found that lesser-known state universities saw an enrollment dip of 2 percent in 2023, which amounts to tens of thousands of fewer students. This—paired with shifting demographics, federal funding issues, hiring freezes, and other challenges—is creating major headaches for smaller colleges and the towns that both support and rely on them.

Meanwhile, federal actions have targeted diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts and grants, and newly proposed visa regulations could potentially deter foreign students from wanting to study at U.S. schools. Skills-based hiring continues to rise, and the widespread adoption of AI is changing how white-collar jobs are performed.

Impact for Planners: For decades, higher education served as an economic anchor for communities, but that era may end. The impacts on smaller college towns might include economic development challenges, job losses, and shrinking tax bases. Planners who work in these places will need to be proactive in helping them diversify revenue sources and find alternative uses for underused infrastructure.

4. Envisioning the Intersection of AVs and Public Transit

Picture this: The year is 2030, public transit funding has rebounded, and the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has altered the local roadway norm as we know it. More people have given up their cars. AV companies are working with transit agencies, not in competition with them. The automotive industry has shifted its focus to electric vehicles, and transportation planners have begun working on new AV-transit hubs in city centers.

It sounds like a dream, but it might not be far off. AVs—which have been anticipated for a decade—are now hitting the road outside Silicon Valley and being tested in Austin and other U.S. cities like Boston and Philadelphia. With the end of federal relief funding for public transit, new and growing technology like AVs could be the solution. But it’s important to note that most AVs are still unreliable in poor weather and winter, and widespread adoption could actually lead to a surge in traffic congestion.

Impact for Planners: Consider what wider use of AVs might mean for communities, including zoning and the impact on streets and curbs.

5. The TikTok Effect on the Political Landscape

Being the first generation shaped by the smartphone, Gen Z—the cohort of people born between 1997 and 2012—has largely gravitated to places like TikTok and other social media platforms to consume news. As doomscrolling dominated their days during the pandemic, Gen Z grew up with unprecedented uncertainty about their future, and some have adopted a worldview dominated by institutional failure, untrustworthy governments, and a failing system.

According to Pew Research, 43 percent of young adults get their news from TikTok. Influencers are shaping how young people perceive fairness, power, and opportunity.

Impact for Planners: When engaging with younger generations, planners must meet them where they are online. Social media can be a tool for participation and co-creation, helping rebuild trust and relevance among the next generation of residents and stakeholders.

6. Disappearing Data Has Real-Life Consequences

Data is an integral part of many planning processes, and while it is gathered from myriad sources, federal data collection has long been vital for policymakers, businesses, nonprofits, and more. This longstanding data gathering practice was disrupted, however, when the new presidential administration took office in 2025, and paused, terminated, or removed several federal datasets. The administration also wants to change how certain datasets, like the decennial census, are collected.

While some of the data collections have intermittently been made public again—often by nonprofits and universities—this environment has created an avalanche of misinformation, given rise to conspiracy theories and public distrust, and may impact hazard and risk communications.

Impact for Planners: The lack of reliable data directly imperils the ability of local planners to develop plans that are based on sound data. This can have dire consequences for decision-making, as well as hazard and risk communication.

7. Rights, Culture, and Communities at Risk

Federal actions targeting vulnerable groups are weakening local culture. The administration has advanced policies that explicitly undermine LGBTQ+ rights, while increased raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement and mass deportations have left many residents afraid to go out in public—skipping work, school, medical, and religious events. As fears grow, support for communitywide activities has waned. Other gatherings have been canceled due to safety concerns. These shifts exacerbate distrust in local institutions.

This climate of fear has disrupted daily life and local economies in places like Los Angeles and Chicago, where street vendors have all but disappeared. Beyond economic losses, the social fabric of neighborhoods is fraying as public life retreats behind closed doors. Eroding trust in government directly affects planners’ ability to engage communities and build inclusive participation processes. But counter movements have emerged, like in Orlando, Florida, where residents protested the removal of a rainbow painted crosswalk that was a memorial to the victims of the 2016 Pulse nightclub mass shooting.

Impact for Planners: Planners can help rebuild trust by ensuring engagement opportunities are safe and inclusive. For example, they can offer hybrid community meetings and reaffirm local commitments to protect all residents.

The 2026 Trend Report for Planners was written by Petra Hurtado, Ievgeniia Dulko, Senna Catenacci, and Joseph DeAngelis. It was edited by Ann Dillemuth and summarized in this article by Jon DePaolis, APA’s senior editor.

This work was developed in partnership with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Lead image credit: gremlin via E+/Getty Images.

Tecnociudad

Realidad aumentada y urbanismo

Por Rob Walker, Junio 16, 2025

El año pasado, la Autoridad de Tránsito de Ohio Central (COTA, por sus siglas en inglés) se propuso obtener la aprobación de los votantes para un nuevo impuesto. El impuesto financiaría un plan de transporte público en Columbus llamado LinkUs, que incluía un nuevo corredor rápido para autobuses. Para presentar su caso, la agencia necesitaba ayudar a los funcionarios y al público a visualizar los cambios positivos que esto podría traer al corredor, los barrios adyacentes y la experiencia de transporte. Es un desafío conocido, pero la estrategia de COTA incluía un componente inusual: la tecnología de realidad aumentada (RA).

Durante años, los artistas y diseñadores de juegos le han dado un uso creativo a la RA, que superpone capas de imágenes digitales sobre las vistas del mundo real que se observan mediante teléfonos, auriculares y otros dispositivos. En juegos populares, como Pokémon Go, se observa el mundo a través de la pantalla del dispositivo y, de repente, el entorno físico está habitado por criaturas animadas y otros objetos digitales. Pero la RA también puede utilizarse para superponer visualizaciones de elementos cívicos en espacios de la ciudad: arte público, monumentos e incluso infraestructura de transporte.

“Se estaban haciendo muchas presentaciones en la comunidad a través de PowerPoint o en forma de presentaciones empresariales”, recuerda Aslyne Rodriguez, directora sénior de Asociaciones Estratégicas Regionales de COTA. “Sin embargo, existía la necesidad y el deseo de una experiencia más tangible”. El corredor planeado solo era una carretera. ¿Cómo involucrar a los ciudadanos con lo que podría ser su futuro? “Era importante que las personas supieran cómo se ve el transporte rápido en autobús, pero también queríamos mostrarles lo que sucede cuando se incorpora transporte rápido en autobús”, continúa Rodriguez. “Aparecen nuevos desarrollos, nuevos negocios, nuevos supermercados. Y [el proyecto incluía] sendas para bicicletas protegidas y conexiones a senderos. Era un mensaje muy grande”.

Aprender sobre RA llevó a COTA a inCitu, una empresa de tecnología con sede en Nueva York que ha producido diversas experiencias de RA. Con socios adicionales, incluida la firma de compromiso estratégico MurphyEpson, el equipo identificó sitios clave en la ruta actual de autobús e ideó un recorrido inmersivo: los participantes escanearían un código QR, y eso activaría representaciones mejoradas con RA de los planes. Se realizaron recorridos en autobús guiados e inmersivos dos veces por semana durante seis meses, a los que asistieron cientos de partes interesadas de la comunidad. Además, los socios colocaron códigos QR en las paradas de autobús existentes y otros puntos de la ruta para hacer que la propuesta de RA fuera todavía más accesible para aquellos que no podrían participar en el recorrido guiado. Los votantes aprobaron el financiamiento del plan.

COTA también utilizó métodos tradicionales de participación, como reuniones y presentaciones comunitarias, y un impulso en las redes sociales (el alcalde incluso publicó una selfie en la versión con RA de una nueva estación de transporte público). Pero esta forma de inmersión digital ofrecía una experiencia de participación distinta. “Hay algo de magia en escanear un código QR, levantar el teléfono y ver el futuro”, dice la fundadora y directora ejecutiva de inCitu, Dana Chermesh-Reshef.

Los participantes en una excursión a pie de proyectos aprobados en Brooklyn, Nueva York, le echan un vistazo al futuro con sus teléfonos. Crédito: inCitu.

La exitosa experiencia de COTA se citó en un informe de diciembre de 2024 del Urban Tech Hub en el Instituto Jacobs de Cornell Tech, donde se exploraban las posibilidades de la RA para los municipios. Pero esas mismas posibilidades también pueden presentar desafíos: consideremos las interrupciones causadas por el uso de viajes compartidos, los alquileres a corto plazo y las tecnologías de ciudades inteligentes, dice Greg Lindsay, autor del informe y exbecario de tecnología urbana en Urban Tech Hub. (Lindsay escribió el epílogo para el libro City Tech del Instituto Lincoln y dio un discurso en una reunión reciente del Instituto Lincoln sobre política de suelo y digitalización).

Un edificio más alto es visible en la pantalla en este prototipo de realidad aumentada creado para un proyecto en Manhattan. El prototipo obtuvo mas de 100.000 visitas. Crédito: inCitu.

Lindsay argumenta que, en esencia, la RA es una nueva forma de usar los espacios públicos mediante el agregado de capas digitales, lo que podría plantear preguntas sobre cómo se debe supervisar o regular este contenido, y quién terminará estableciendo esos términos: las plataformas tecnológicas, las ciudades u otra entidad. Para Lindsay, el desafío para las ciudades es el siguiente: “¿es posible anticipar mejor las interrupciones y evitarlas?”.

Por eso, una de las recomendaciones del informe de Lindsay es que las ciudades deberían estar abiertas a experimentar con la RA más temprano que tarde, a fin de desarrollar cierto nivel de comodidad con la tecnología, incluso si los posibles casos de uso no están definidos por completo. Si bien COTA proporciona un ejemplo sorprendente del uso de la RA de una manera que tuvo consecuencias directas sobre el uso del suelo, Lindsay dice que las colaboraciones con artistas, educadores y grupos cívicos también pueden cumplir una función. Este año, Bloomberg Philanthropies, el Departamento de Parques de Nueva York y la Fundación Christo y Jeanne-Claude presentaron una versión de realidad aumentada de la famosa instalación de los artistas de 2005, The Gates, que vuelve a presentar, de forma digital, los 7.500 paneles de color azafrán de la obra en Central Park. Y el artista Marcus Brown usó la RA para crear una instalación digital alrededor de Nueva Orleans, mediante el mapeo y la representación de la historia del comercio esclavista en esa ciudad. Las posibilidades, según los promotores de la RA, son casi infinitas.

Estas tecnologías emergentes tienen un potencial considerable para mejorar las ciudades, argumenta Chip Giller, cofundador y director ejecutivo de Agog: El Instituto de Medios Inmersivos. “La narración de historias puede volverse tridimensional y las herramientas de planificación pueden volverse tridimensionales”, agrega. “Entonces, en lugar de solo usar un charrette o un modelo de computadora, uno podrá adentrarse en lo que podría ser el futuro”. Agog trabaja con creadores y dirigentes de organizaciones sin fines de lucro para “aprovechar el poder de la realidad extendida”, o RX, un término que abarca la RA y las tecnologías adyacentes.

Y eso puede traducirse en la realidad verdadera. Uno de los socios de Agog, la Universidad Estatal de Arizona (ASU, por sus siglas en inglés), se encuentra en el tercer año de un ambicioso proyecto para reimaginar y redesarrollar 14 parcelas vacantes en Los Ángeles que pertenecen a Caltrans, la secretaría de tránsito de California. ASU está “adoptando” las parcelas, para las cuales Caltrans no tenía planes, bajo el programa Adopt-A-Highway de la agencia. Con la ayuda de otros socios, incluida la profesora de Los Angeles Trade Tech Marcela Oliva y el Collaboratorium, el programa de Narrativa y Medios Emergentes de ASU está utilizando la tecnología para ayudar a involucrar a los miembros de la comunidad en los planes para la urbanización de los sitios, dice Nonny de la Peña, directora del programa de ASU y pionera en la narración digital inmersiva.

Muchos de los lotes son adyacentes a la carretera y su ubicación y tamaño son incómodos, y algunos han pasado a ser lugares para verter residuos y pintar grafitis. El objetivo es utilizar la RA y otras tecnologías de inmersión para planificar nuevos usos, dice de la Peña, “para reverdecer [los espacios], convertirlos en parques”. Un espacio junto a la autopista 110 que atraviesa el centro de la ciudad, no muy lejos del campus satélite de ASU, se convirtió en un jardín y parque comunitario, y la asociación comenzó a intervenir un segundo espacio y estaba eligiendo un tercero este año.

Como explica de la Peña, el proyecto consiste en crear un gemelo digital tridimensional de cada sitio con el que los estudiantes, los residentes y las partes interesadas puedan experimentar para darle forma a lo que podría llegar a ser el espacio. “Incluso antes de actualizar el aspecto físico del sitio, estamos trabajando con la comunidad para enseñarles algunas habilidades básicas para crear modelos 3D”, dice Sultan Sharrief, investigadora de ASU y autodenominada científica de medios en el programa de de la Peña. “Estamos proporcionando las herramientas y el tipo de estructura, por ejemplo, ¿cómo creamos la biblioteca digital de plantas que podrán crecer en estos espacios para que luego puedan diseñar con esto en mente?”. Ahora, están incluyendo sensores en el primer sitio para mantener el gemelo digital actualizado a fin de que los miembros de la comunidad puedan seguir ajustando el espacio. “Esto recién comienza”, indica de la Peña.

La empresa que ayudó a incorporar la RA en el esfuerzo de planificación de Columbus, inCitu, está involucrada en proyectos en Phoenix, Nueva York y otras ciudades. En Washington, DC, la compañía trabaja con las oficinas de planificación y tecnología, y está comenzando a trabajar en una iniciativa de revitalización del centro en Myrtle Beach. Además, ahora brinda una plataforma basada en la Web llamada inCituAR, cuyo diseño permite a los planificadores y arquitectos experimentar directamente con la tecnología y sus capacidades.

Sin embargo, al final del día, “no se trata de lo genial de la tecnología”, comenta Chermesh-Reshef, “se trata del hecho de que esta tecnología en verdad permite una participación sencilla”. Los proyectos más prometedores, agrega, intentan abordar uno de los desafíos y aspiraciones más conocidos y antiguos de la planificación: “Nuestra meta es fomentar mejores conversaciones”.


Rob Walker es el autor de Tecnociudad: 20 aplicaciones, ideas e innovadores que cambian el panorama urbano y The Art of Noticing. Conozca más de sus trabajos en robwalker.substack.com.

Imagen principal: La realidad aumentada ayuda a la persona con la tableta a visualizar el desarrollo de viviendas sostenibles propuesto en el Bronx, Nueva York. El edificio que se ve detrás de las personas en la pantalla reemplaza los autos estacionados en el fondo verdadero. Crédito: inCitu.

 

New “Who Owns America” Report Maps Corporate Ownership of Residential Land 

By Kristina McGeehan, Noviembre 20, 2025

CAMBRIDGE, MAA new report from the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the Center for Geospatial Solutions (CGS) reveals where corporations have gained a significant foothold in residential real estate across the United States. The analysis of corporate ownership of residential land finds that corporations now own 8.9 percent of residential parcels in 500 counties across the US. While this national share stands at roughly 1 in 11 parcels, corporate ownership exceeds 20 percent in communities including St. Louis, Missouri, Harrisonburg, Virginia, and Franklin County, Ohio, illustrating deeply uneven impacts across the country. 

To enhance previous studies that have focused on housing units, this analysis examines corporate ownership at the parcel level, establishing a national baseline for understanding how landownership in the United States is changing. Crucially, by using a standardized and repeatable approach, the findings allow policymakers to validate lived experience, compare trends across cities and over time, and target policy solutions where they are needed most. Landownership shifts carry significant economic, environmental, and social implications for communities nationwide, and will inform future versions of the report.

The Center for Geospatial Solutions (CGS), a nonprofit data services provider operating out of the Lincoln Institute, analyzed residential parcel information from nearly 500 counties, uniquely tracing ownership records across state lines and corporate structures, providing visibility that is typically fragmented or inaccessible. The report identifies 25 county hot spots that have the highest rates of corporate control and takes a closer look at three postindustrial cities—St. Louis, Cleveland, and Baltimore—to illustrate the connections between corporate investor activity and local demographics.

The report is the latest in CGS’ efforts to bring decision-ready data to communities. Developed using Who Owns America® (WHOA), a proprietary parcel ownership classification methodology, the approach offers a consistent, scalable way to understand who owns what. CGS has worked directly with federal agencies, cities, and nonprofits to apply WHOA in emerging contexts, including identifying faith-based land suitable for affordable housing, assessing investor activity in local markets, and supporting post-COVID housing policy analysis. In the coming weeks, the Lincoln Institute will utilize CGS’ WHOA analysis of government-owned land for affordable housing to launch a national campaign aimed at advancing policy solutions that enable the development of local- and state-owned land for public needs, such as affordable housing or nature-based solutions.

“Policymakers can’t protect affordability if they can’t see who controls the land beneath our feet,” said Jeff Allenby, director of innovation at CGS. “Geospatial, parcel-level visibility reveals how corporate investment is shaping housing–from national patterns to city blocks. Leaders need this clarity to respond to emerging pressures in real time and deploy interventions where they’re needed most.” 

The report goes beyond data analysis to provide actionable policy recommendations designed to help communities preserve housing affordability and maintain local control of residential land. Solutions detailed in the report include creating rental registries, providing property tax relief programs, pursuing philanthropic or municipal buybacks, investing in homebuyer assistance, limiting harmful practices through legislation, offering rights of first refusal, launching community land trusts, and building on local- and state-owned public land. 

“It’s clear that corporate ownership of residential property is here to stay—and might even continue increasing,” said George W. McCarthy, president and CEO of the Lincoln Institute. “However, this report offers a look into key trends, establishing a national baseline that policymakers, reporters, and communities can use to best understand how to move forward.”

The full report is free to access and is available here

Data Drain: The Land and Water Impacts of the AI Boom

By Jon Gorey, Octubre 17, 2025

A low hum emerges from within a vast, dimly lit tomb, whose occupant devours energy and water with a voracious, inhuman appetite. The beige, boxy data center is a vampire of sorts—pallid, immortal, thirsty. Sheltered from sunlight, active all night. And much like a vampire, at least according to folkloric tradition, it can only enter a place if it’s been invited inside.

In states and counties across the US, lawmakers aren’t just opening the door for these metaphorical, mechanical monsters. They’re actively luring them in, with tax breaks and other incentives, eager to lay claim to new municipal revenues and a piece of the explosive growth surrounding artificial intelligence.

That may sound hyperbolic, but data centers truly are resource-ravenous. Even a mid-sized data center consumes as much water as a small town, while larger ones require up to 5 million gallons of water every day—as much as a city of 50,000 people.

Powering and cooling their rows of server stacks also takes an astonishing amount of electricity. A conventional data center—think cloud storage for your work documents or streaming videos—draws as much electricity as 10,000 to 25,000 households, according to the International Energy Agency. But a newer, AI-focused “hyperscale” data center can use as much power as 100,000 homes or more. Meta’s Hyperion data center in Louisiana, for example, is expected to draw more than twice the power of the entire city of New Orleans once completed. Another Meta data center planned in Wyoming will use more electricity than every home in the state combined.

And of course, unlike actual clouds, data centers require land. Lots of it. Some of the largest data centers being built today will cover hundreds of acres with impermeable steel, concrete, and paved surfaces—land that will no longer be available for farmland, nature, or housing—and require new transmission line corridors and other associated infrastructure as well.

Data centers have been part of our built landscape for over a decade, however—many of them tucked into unassuming office parks, quietly processing our web searches and storing our cellphone photos. So why the sudden concern? Artificial intelligence tools trained with large language models, such as Open AI’s ChatGPT, among others, use exponentially more computing power than traditional cloud services. And the largest technology companies, including Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, are investing quickly and heavily in AI.

The number of US data centers more than doubled between 2018 and 2021 and, fueled by investments in AI, that number has already doubled again. Early in the AI boom, in 2023, US data centers consumed 176 terawatt-hours of electricity, roughly as much as the entire nation of Ireland (whose electric grid is itself nearly maxed out, prompting data centers there to use polluting off-grid generators), and that’s expected to double or even triple as soon as 2028.

This rapid proliferation can put an enormous strain on local and regional resources—burdens that many host communities are not fully accounting for or prepared to meet.

“Demand for data centers and processing has just exploded exponentially because of AI,” says Kim Rueben, former senior fiscal systems advisor at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Virginia and Texas have long had tax incentives in place to attract new data centers, and “other states are jumping on the bandwagon,” she says, hoping to see economic growth and new tax revenues.

But at a Land Policy and Digitalization conference convened by the Lincoln Institute last spring, Rueben likened the extractive nature of data centers to coal mines. “I don’t think places are acknowledging all the costs,” she says.

Yes, Virginia, There Is a Data Clause

At that conference, Chris Miller, executive director of the Piedmont Environmental Council, explained how roughly two-thirds of the world’s internet traffic passes through Northern Virginia. The region already hosts the densest concentration of data centers anywhere in the world, with about 300 facilities in just a handful of counties. Dozens more are planned or in development, ready to consume the region’s available farmland, energy, and water, enticed by a statewide incentive that saves companies more than $130 million in sales and use taxes each year.

Despite the state-level tax break, the data centers make significant contributions to local coffers. In Loudon County, which has over 27 million square feet of existing data center space, officials expect the total real and property tax revenues collected from local data centers in fiscal year 2025 to approach $900 million, nearly as much as the county’s entire operating budget. The proportion of revenue derived from data centers has grown so lopsided that the county’s board of supervisors is considering adjusting the tax rate, so as not to be so reliant on a single source.

Existing and planned data centers in Northern Virginia. The state has been dubbed “the data center capital of the world.” Credit: Piedmont Environmental Council.

While many communities see data centers as an economic boon due to that tax revenue, the facilities themselves are not powerful long-term job engines. Most of the jobs they create are rooted in their construction, not their ongoing operation, and thus are largely temporary.

Decades ago, PEC supported some of the data center development in Northern Virginia, says Julie Bolthouse, PEC’s director of land policy. But the industry has changed dramatically since then. When AOL had its headquarters in what’s known as Data Center Alley, for example, the company’s data center was a small part of a larger campus, “which had pedestrian trails around it, tennis courts, basketball courts … at its peak, it had 5,300 employees on that site,” Bolthouse says. The campus has since been demolished, and three large data center facilities are being built on the site. “There’s a big fence around it for security purposes, so it’s totally isolated from the community now, and it is only going to employ about 100 to 150 people on the same piece of land. That’s the difference.”

The facilities have also gotten “massive,” Bolthouse adds. “Each one of those buildings is using as much as a city’s worth of power, so that power infrastructure is having a huge impact on our communities. All the transmission lines that have to be built, the eminent domain used to get the land for those transmission lines, all of the energy infrastructure, gas plants, pipelines that deliver the gas, the air pollution associated with that, the climate impacts of all of that.”

Across Northern Virginia, on-site diesel generators—thousands of them, each the size of a rail car—spew diesel fumes, creating air quality issues. “No other land use that I know of uses as many generators as a data center does,” Bolthouse says. And while such generators are officially classified as emergency backup power, data centers are permitted to run them for “demand response” for 50 hours at a time, she adds. “That’s a lot of air pollution locally. That’s particulate matter and NOx [nitrogen oxides], which impacts growing lungs of children, can add cases of asthma, and can exacerbate heart disease and other underlying diseases in the elderly.”

And then there’s the water issue.

‘Like a Giant Soda Straw’

A study by the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) and University of Houston found that data centers in Texas will use 49 billion gallons of water in 2025, and as much as 399 billion gallons in 2030. That would be equivalent to drawing down the largest reservoir in the US—157,000-acre Lake Mead—by more than 16 feet in a year.

Anyone who’s accidentally left their phone out in the rain or dropped it in a puddle might wonder what a building full of expensive, delicate electronics could want with millions of gallons of water. It’s largely for cooling purposes. Coursing with electrical current, server stacks can get very hot, and evaporative room cooling is among the simplest and cheapest ways to keep the chips from getting overheated and damaged.

What that means, however, is that the water isn’t just used for cooling and then discharged as treatable wastewater; much of it evaporates in the process—poof.

“Even if they’re using reclaimed or recycled water, that water is no longer going back into the base flow of the rivers and streams,” Bolthouse says. “That has ecological impacts as well as supply issues. Everybody is upstream from someone else.” Washington, DC, for example, will still lose water supply if Northern Virginia data centers use recycled or reclaimed water, because that water won’t make it back into the Potomac River. Evaporative cooling also leaves behind high concentrations of salts and other contaminants, she adds, creating water quality issues.

There are less water-intensive ways to cool data centers, including closed-loop water systems, which require more electricity, and immersion cooling, in which servers are submerged in a bath of liquid, such as a synthetic oil, that conducts heat but not electricity. Immersion cooling allows for a denser installation of servers as well, but is not yet widely used, largely due to cost.

Ironically, it can be hard to confirm specific data about data centers. Given the proprietary nature of AI technology and, perhaps, the potential for public backlash, many companies are less than forthcoming about how much water their data centers consume. Google, for its part, reported using more than 5 billion gallons of water across all its data centers in 2023, with 31 percent of its freshwater withdrawals coming from watersheds with medium or high water scarcity.

A 2023 study by the University of California Riverside estimated that an AI chat session of 20 or so queries uses up to a bottle of freshwater. That amount can vary depending on the platform, with more sophisticated models demanding larger volumes of water, while other estimates suggest it could be closer to a few spoonfuls per query.

“But what goes unacknowledged, from a natural systems perspective, is that all water is local,” says Peter Colohan, director of partnerships and program innovation at the Lincoln Institute, who helped create the Internet of Water. “It’s a small amount of water for a few queries, but it’s all being taken from one basin where that data center is located—that’s thousands and thousands of gallons of water being drawn from one place from people doing their AI queries from all over the world,” he says.

“Wherever they choose to put a data center, it is like a giant soda straw sucking water out of that basin,” Colohan continues. “And when you take water from a place, you have to reduce demand or put water back in that same place, there’s no other solution. In some cases, at least, major data center developers have begun to recognize this problem and are actively engaging in water replenishment where it counts.”

Locating data centers in cooler, wetter regions can help reduce the amount of water they use and the impact of their freshwater withdrawals. And yet roughly two-thirds of the data centers built since 2022 have been located in water-stressed regions, according to a Bloomberg News analysis, including hot, dry climates like Arizona.

The warm water-cooling system at a Sandia Labs data center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The data center earned LEED Gold certification for efficiency in 2020. Credit: Bret Latter/Sandia Labs via Flickr CC.

It’s not just cooling the server rooms and chips that consumes water. About half of the electricity currently used by US data centers comes from fossil fuel power plants, which themselves use a lot of water, as they heat up steam to turn their massive turbines.

And the millions of microchips processing all that information? By the time they reach a data center, each chip has already consumed thousands of gallons of water. Manufacturing these tiny, powerful computing components requires “ultrapure” treated water to rinse off silicon residue without damaging the chips. It takes about 1.5 gallons of tap water to produce a gallon of ultrapure water, and the typical chip factory uses about 10 million gallons of ultrapure water each day, according to the World Economic Forum—as much as 33,000 US households.


As communities consider the benefits and risks of data center development, consumers might consider our own role in the growth of data centers, and whether our use of AI is worth the price of the water, power, and land it devours.

There could be important uses for artificial intelligence—if it can be harnessed to solve complex problems, for instance, or to improve the efficiency of water systems and electric grids.

There are clearly superfluous uses, too. A YouTube channel with 35 million subscribers, for example, features AI-generated music videos … of AI-generated songs. The MIT Technology Review estimates that, unlike simple text queries, using AI to create video content is extremely resource-heavy: Making a five-second AI-generated video uses about as much electricity as running a microwave nonstop for over an hour.

Data center defenders tend to point to the fact that Americans use more water each year to irrigate golf courses (more than 500 billion gallons) and lawns (over 2 trillion gallons) than AI data centers use. However, that argument rings false: America has a well-documented addiction to green grass that is also not serving us well. The solution, water experts say, lies in water conservation and consumer education, not comparing one wasteful use to another.


 

Putting a Finite Resource First

Even a small data center can place an immense, concentrated burden on local infrastructure and natural resources. In Newton County, Georgia, a Meta data center that opened in 2018 uses 500,000 gallons of water per day—10 percent of the entire county’s water consumption. And given Georgia’s cheap power and generous state tax breaks, Newton County continues to field requests for new data center permits—some of which would use up to 6 million gallons of water per day, more than doubling what the entire county currently consumes.

The intense demands that data centers place on regional resources make for complicated decision-making at the local level. Communities and regional water officials must engage in discussions about data centers early on, and with a coordinated, holistic understanding of existing resources and potential impacts on the energy grid and the watershed, says Mary Ann Dickinson, policy director for land and water at the Lincoln Institute. “We would like to help communities make smarter decisions about data centers, helping them analyze and plan for the potential impacts to their community structures and systems.”

“Water is often one of the last things that gets thought about, so one of the things that we’re really promoting is early engagement,” says John Hernon, strategic development manager at Thames Water in the UK. “So when you’re thinking about data centers, it’s not just about the speed you’re going to get, it’s not just about making sure there’s a lot of power available—we need to make sure that water is factored in at the earliest possible thinking … at the forefront, rather than an afterthought.”

Despite its damp reputation, London doesn’t receive a whole lot of rainfall compared to the northern UK — less than 25 inches a year, on average, or roughly half of what falls in New York City. Yet because so much growth is centered on London, the Thames Water service area holds about 80 percent of the UK’s data centers, Hernon says, and another 100 or so are proposed.

What’s more, their water usage peaks during the hottest, driest times of the year, when the utility can least accommodate the extra demand. “That’s why we talk about restricting or reducing or objecting to [data centers],” Hernon says. “It’s not because we don’t like them. We absolutely get it, we need them ourselves. AI will massively help our call center … which means we can have more people out fixing leaks and proactively managing our networks.”

Keeping the Lights On

One way for data centers to use less water is to rely more heavily on air-cooling technology, but this requires more energy —which may in turn increase water use indirectly, depending on the power source. What’s more, regional grids are already struggling to meet the demand of these power-hungry facilities, and there are hundreds more in the works. “A lot of these projects have been announced, but it’s not clear what can come on fast enough to power them,” says Kelly T. Sanders, associate professor of engineering at University of Southern California.

The government wants US technology companies to build their AI data centers domestically—not just for economic reasons, but for national security purposes as well. But even as the Trump administration appears to understand the enormous energy demands data centers will place on the electric grid, it has actively squashed new wind power projects, such as Revolution Wind off the coast of Rhode Island.

NREL (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory) created this overlay map of transmission lines and data center locations to “help visualize the overlap and simplify co-system planning.” Credit: NREL.gov.

Other carbon-free alternatives like small modular reactors (SMRs) and geothermal energy have bipartisan support, Sanders says. “But the problem is, even if you put shovels in the ground for an SMR today, it’s going to take 10 years,” she says. “The things that we can do the fastest are wind, solar, and batteries. But in the last six months we’ve lost a lot of the incentives for clean energy, and there’s an all-out war on wind. Wind projects that are already built, already paid for, are being canceled. And to me, that’s peculiar, because that’s electricity that would be ready to go out on the grid soon, in some of these regions that are really congested.”

Data centers are among the reasons ratepayers nationwide have seen their electric bills increase at twice the rate of inflation in the past year. Part of that is the new infrastructure data centers will require, such as new power plants, transmission lines, or other investments. Those costs, as well as ongoing grid maintenance and upgrades, are typically shared by all electric customers in a service area, through charges added to utility bills.

This creates at least two issues: While the tax revenues of a new data center will benefit only the host community, the entire electric service area must pay for the associated infrastructure. Secondly, if a utility makes that huge investment, but the data center eventually closes or needs much less electricity than projected, it’s the ratepayers who will foot the bill, not the data center.

Some tech companies are securing their own clean power independent of the grid—Microsoft, for example, signed a 20-year agreement to purchase energy directly from the Three Mile Island nuclear plant. But that approach isn’t ideal either, Sanders says. “These data centers are still going to use transmission lines and all those grid assets, but if they’re not buying the electricity from the utility, they’re not paying for all that infrastructure through their rate bills,” she says.

Aside from generating new power, Sanders says, there are strategies to squeeze more capacity from the existing grid. “One is good old energy efficiency, and the data centers themselves have all of the incentives aligned to try to make their processes more efficient,” she says. AI itself could potentially also help enhance grid performance. “We can use artificial intelligence to give us more information about how power is flowing through the grid, and so we can optimize that power flow, which can give us more capacity than we would have otherwise,” Sanders says.

Another strategy is to make the grid more flexible. Most of the time, and in most regions of the US, we only use about 40 percent of the grid’s total capacity, Sanders says, give or take. “We build the capacity of the grid to meet the hottest day … and that’s where we worry about these large data center loads,” she says. A coordinated network of batteries, however —including in people’s homes and EVs—can add flexibility and stabilize the grid during times of peak demand. In July, California’s Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) conducted the largest-ever test of its statewide “virtual power plant,” using residential batteries to supply 535 megawatts of power to the grid for two full hours at sundown.

With some intentional, coordinated planning—”it’s not just going to happen naturally,” Sanders says—it may be possible to add more capacity without requiring a lot of new generation if data centers can reduce their workloads during peak times and invest in large-scale battery backups: “There is a world in which these data centers can actually be good grid actors, where they can add more flexibility to the grid.”

Confronting Trade-Offs With Land Policy

As the demand for data centers grows, finding suitable locations for these facilities will force communities to confront myriad and imperfect trade-offs between water, energy, land, money, health, and climate. “Integrated land use planning, with sustainable land, water, and energy practices, is the only way we can sustainably achieve the virtuous circle needed to reap the benefits of AI and the economic growth associated with it,” Colohan says.

For example, using natural gas to meet the anticipated electricity load of Texas data centers would require 50 times more water than using solar generation, according to the HARC study, and 1,000 times more water than wind. But while powering new data centers with wind farms would consume the least water, it would also require the most land—four times as much land as solar, and 42 times as much as natural gas.

Absent an avalanche of new, clean power, most data centers are adding copious amounts of greenhouse gases to our collective emissions, at a time when science demands we cut them sharply to limit the worst impacts of climate change. Louisiana regulators in August approved plans to build three new gas power plants to offset the expected electricity demand from Meta’s Hyperion AI data center.

While towns or counties compete with one another to attract data centers, the host communities will reap the tax benefits while the costs—the intense water demand, the higher electricity bills, the air pollution from backup generators—will be dispersed more regionally, including to areas that won’t see any new tax revenue.

That’s one reason data center permitting needs more state oversight, Bolthouse says. “The only approval that they really have to get is from the locality, and the locality is not looking at the regional impacts,” she says. PEC is also pushing for ratepayer protections and sustainability commitments. “We want to make sure we’re encouraging the most efficient and sustainable practices within the industry, and that we’re requiring mitigation when impacts can’t be avoided.”

Too close for comfort? A data center abuts homes in Loudoun County, Virginia. Credit: Hugh Kenny via Piedmont Environmental Council.

PEC and others are also pressing for greater transparency from the industry. “Very often, data centers are coming in with non-disclosure agreements,” Bolthouse says. “They’re hiding a lot of information about water usage, energy usage, air quality impacts, emissions—none of that information is disclosed, and so communities don’t really know what they’re getting into.”

“We need communities to be educated about what they’re facing, and what their trade-offs are when they let in a data center,” Colohan says. “What is the cost—the true cost—of a data center? And then how do you turn that true cost into a benefit through integrated land policy?”

Rueben says she understands the desire, especially in communities experiencing population loss, to tap into a growing industry. But rather than competing with each other to attract data centers, she says, communities ought to be having broader conversations about job growth and economic development strategies, factoring in the true costs and trade-offs these facilities present, and asking the companies to provide more guarantees and detailed plans.

“Forcing data center operators to explain how they’re going to run the facility more efficiently, and where they’re going to get their water from—and not just assuming that they have first access to the water and energy systems,” she says, “is a shift in perspective that we kind of need government officials to make.”


Jon Gorey is a staff writer at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Lead image: Data center facilities in Prince William County, Virginia. The county has 59 data centers in operation or under construction. Credit: Hugh Kenny via Piedmont Environmental Council.