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The complexity that characterizes the interaction of transportation and land use in urban areas is matched by the variety of the disciplines called on to address these issues, including economics, urban planning and civil engineering. In recent decades, communication among scholars in these disciplines has improved and the acceptance of a common base of theory and method, based on economics, is increasing. The Taxation, Resources and Economic Development (TRED) conference on “Transportation and Land Use” held at the Lincoln Institute in October 1996 focused on these issues. Ten papers presented at that conference are now published in a special issue of the journal Urban Studies. The papers are organized into four groups as summarized below.
Trends in Urban Development
Gregory Ingram’s paper on “Metropolitan Development: What Have We Learned?” documents the worldwide prevalence of several trends that characterize modern urbanization. Employment decentralization and the emergence of multiple employment centers in large metropolitan areas are observed worldwide in both developing and developed countries. Although employment continues to be more centralized than population, the typical Central Business District does not contain more than about 20 percent of jobs, and much smaller percentages are common in the U.S. Manufacturing employment has become more decentralized than service employment. Decentralization has reduced traffic congestion and travel distances and has contributed to a weakening of transit systems. The increased affordability of motorized transportation worldwide has led to more trip-making, with work trips typically being less than a third of all trips in urbanized areas.
Peter Gordon, Harry Richardson and Gang Yu find evidence that the suburbanization and exurbanization of employment in the U.S. has picked up its pace since 1988. In their paper, “Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Employment Trends in the U.S.: Recent Evidence and Implications,” they argue that the ability of manufacturing and even of services to locate in exurban and rural areas, shunning inner-suburban and central city locations, is a consequence of the continued weakening of the agglomeration economies that shaped the now outdated downtown-oriented city.
Robert Cervero and Kang-Li Wu examine the relationship between average commuting distance and employment subcentering in their paper, “Subcentering and Commuting: Evidence from the San Francisco Bay Area, 1980-1990.” They are concerned with changes in employment densities in 22 employment subcenters and with the commuting distances and travel times of those employed in these subcenters. The authors find that employment densities have increased more in the outlying suburban centers and that commuting to these centers has experienced modal shifts away from transit and in favor of the automobile. According to their data, while jobs in these centers grew by 18 percent during the decade, average one-way commuting distances to these 22 subcenters increased by 12 percent, and average one-way travel times rose by only 5 percent.
These findings are consistent with theory: with the number of subcenters fixed and the degree of spatial mismatch between jobs and housing invariant with job growth, an increase in the number of jobs in each subcenter should result in longer commutes on average. If new subcenters are spawned in between existing ones or new ones develop in outlying areas-something that does not appear to have occurred in the Bay Area-then average commutes should decrease. The 22 subcenters account for less than half of total employment in the Bay Area, the rest of the jobs being broadly dispersed throughout. Because such dispersed employment is not included in their study, we do not know about the total effect of job decentralization on average commute distances and times.
Genevieve Giuliano’s paper, “Information Technology, Work Patterns and Intrametropolitan Location: A Case Study,” examines the impact of information technology, including the advent of fax machines, computers, modems and the internet. One of her central observations is that while the U.S. labor force increased by 14 percent from 1980 to 1990, the “contingent workforce,” a diverse group of temporary workers, part-time workers, the self-employed and business service workers, increased much faster, from about 25 to 33 percent.
This trend implies that the information revolution is causing structural shifts in the labor force as more and more workers offer temporary services to a variety of employers and, as a result, do not have a long-term attachment to any one employer. Theory suggests that such workers should locate in a way that is sensitive to their expected accessibility to jobs. Also, the advent of information technology should facilitate “telecommuting,” thus reducing the need for physical proximity to jobs.
Giuliano uses the 1990 U.S. Census Public Use Microsample for the Los Angeles region to compare the residential location and commuting patterns of contingent and non-contingent workers. The socioeconomic complexity of contingent workers makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions, but Guiliano does find that those contingent workers who live in suburban areas are likely to live in high amenity areas. Controlling for socioeconomic factors, commuting distances are shorter for part-time workers than they are for full-time workers, and among full-time workers the self-employed have the shortest commutes.
Agglomeration Economies
The next two papers offer empirical contributions on intra-urban employment agglomeration. “Spatial Variation in Office Rents within the Atlanta Region,” by Christopher Bollinger, Keith Ihlanfeldt and David Bowes, is a hedonic rent study for office buildings in the Atlanta area from 1990 to 1996. The authors find that part of the rent differences among office buildings is due to differences in wage rates, transportation rates and proximity to concentrations of office workers. More importantly, the convenience of face-to-face meetings facilitated by office agglomerations is also reflected in office rents, providing evidence that agglomerative tendencies continue to be important in explaining office concentrations, despite the ability of information technology to reduce the need for some such contacts. In their paper, “Population Density in Suburban Chicago: A Bid-Rent Approach,” Daniel McMillen and John McDonald show that population density patterns in the Chicago MSA are strongly influenced by proximity to subcenters, which include the Central Business District, O’Hare Airport and 16 other centers. Site-specific variables such as access to commuter rail stations or highway interchanges have smaller influences on population densities.
Travel Behavior and Residential Choice
Among the challenges posed by the evolving trends in transportation and land use is a better explanation of the role of non-work travel in residential location decisionmaking. Motorized mobility has greatly increased non-work travel, thus weakening the relevance of the now classical commuting-based theory of residential location. While information technology may result in more telecommuting, the importance of non-work travel relative to work travel may grow even more in the future.
Two papers attempt to develop new techniques that can be used to explain the influence of non-work travel behavior on residential location and land use patterns, and vice versa. Central to this research is the notion that when a household makes a residential choice decision it will consider the pattern of non-work trips its members are likely to make. Accessibility to non-work opportunities is likely to be important and, for many households, perhaps more important than accessibility to jobs.
Moshe Ben-Akiva and John Bowman model the probability of choosing a residential location by treating the non-work trip patterns and activity schedules of the household’s members as explanatory variables. Their model allows the treatment of trips as tours with stops at multiple destinations. In their paper, “Integration of an Activity-Based Model System and a Residential Location Model,” the authors report that their model does not fit the data as well as a work-trip-based comparison model. But, the non-work accessibility measures are more appealing conceptually and allow a richer set of predictions and simulations to be made.
Until recently, economists have suppressed the importance of non-work trips in their theories of land use. Planners have viewed land use planning as a tool that can affect behavior and travel demand. But what is the evidence that travel patterns can be influenced meaningfully by manipulating land use at the neighborhood level or in a larger area?
Marlon Boarnet and Sharon Sarmiento tackle this question by means of a travel diary survey of Southern California residents. Their paper is titled “Can Land Use Policy Really Affect Travel Behavior? A Study of the Link Between Non-work Travel and Land Use Characteristics.” The number of work trips made by residents is explained by sociodemographic variables describing the residents and by land use characteristics describing their place of residence. Generally, the land use variables describing the neighborhood are not statistically significant, but future studies could follow this approach by trying more complex specifications and using better data.
Jobs-Housing Mismatch
As first stated by John Kain in 1968, the “spatial mismatch hypothesis” claimed that black central city residents are increasingly at a disadvantage economically as jobs disperse to the suburbs. Many suburban governments limit the quantity of high-density/low-income housing, forcing workers to make long, expensive commutes. Although there is a wealth of empirical work on the mismatch hypothesis, Richard Arnott’s paper, “Economic Theory and the Mismatch Hypothesis,” is one of the first attempts to formulate a microeconomic theory of the mismatch problem. In Arnott’s model, jobs flee to the suburbs because of the advent of international trade (relaxation of global trade barriers) and the emergence of suburban-based inter-city truck transport after World War II. At the same time, large-lot zoning and discrimination in suburban housing markets force minorities to reside in central cities. An increase in the cost of commuting effectively lowers the wage paid to low-skilled labor from the city.
In “Where Youth Live: Economic Effects of Urban Space on Employment Prospects,” John Quigley and Katherine O’Regan investigate how neighborhood of residence and access to jobs affect the employment prospects of minority youth. Black youth unemployment rates are higher in metropolitan areas where blacks are more isolated geographically. Controlling for socioeconomic characteristics, minority youth who have less residential exposure to whites are more likely to be unemployed. Finally, controlling for socioeconomic characteristics as well as residential exposure to whites, minority youth living in neighborhoods that are less accessible to jobs are more likely to be unemployed. While these findings support the mismatch hypothesis, they also suggest the importance of social networks and spatial search as important mechanisms in the intra-urban labor market.
Alex Anas, professor of economics at the State University of New York at Buffalo, was the editor of the special issue of Urban Studies (Vol. 35, No. 7, June 1998). The article and figures used in Land Lines are adapted with permission.
Note: Ben Chinitz, former director of research at the Institute, helped organize the 1996 TRED conference and the following colleagues served as discussants of the papers: James Follain, Vernon Henderson, Douglass Lee, Therese McGuire, Peter Mieszkowski, Edwin Mills, Sam Myers, Dick Netzer, Stephen Ross, Anita Summers, William Wheaton, Michelle White and John Yinger. The conference participants were saddened when news arrived that William Vickrey, who had been named a Nobel laureate in economics only a few days before, had passed away while traveling to the conference. Professor Vickrey had been a leading thinker on issues of transportation and land use and a regular attendee of previous TRED conferences. The special issue of Urban Studies based on the 1996 conference serves as a tribute to his memory.
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Governments have often intervened in land markets in Asian cities, but with limited effects. In recent decades, economic globalization and political democratization have created even stronger demands for more efficient and equitable land use policies. Rapid economic growth in cities with scarce land resources has generated a wave of new thinking on land values and land markets among scholars and policymakers.
The GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) negotiations are stimulating new production structures in much of Asia, which consequently shift demand from agriculture into manufacturing and other urban land uses. At the same time, local governments are struggling with more financial autonomy and are becoming dependent on revenues from increased land values to subsidize the costs of development.
Three countries illustrate emerging land and tax policy issues raised by these complex interactions of international and local economies.
In Taiwan, land values for urban and agriculture uses are extremely divergent. The immediate issues are: 1) how to better use the 40,000 hectares of agricultural land that are no longer needed for production as a result of the GATT agreements; and 2) how to distribute the development benefits created by this conversion of agricultural land.
In Korea, the challenge concerns the legality of taxation to capture excessive increases in land value and gains from land speculation. Faced with builders’ pressure to develop greenbelts and open spaces in metropolitan areas and with local politicians’ concerns over fiscal autonomy, the central government is preparing a major tax reform to capture these increments in land value.
In Japan, land values have changed dramatically over the past ten years, but the reasons for these fluctuations are not always clear. Land speculation, unpredictable market forces and government regulation all play a part. Analysis of failed attempts to control land prices will be valuable in developing future policies.
Land Value and Speculation
The perception of land value in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan may not be significantly different from that in other capitalist countries. The problem is in the speculative value, also known as “unearned income” or the “unearned increment” in land value. This value can be so high that it distorts all the legal, administrative, political and social measures designed to manage the use of land. In Japan, for example, land value in major cities tripled from 1983 to 1989. In Korea, land value increased 13 times between 1975 and 1990, while the national income increased only 5 times in the same period. In Taiwan, the value of farm land increased 155 percent from 1986 to 1990, compared to the GDP’s 36 percent growth during the same period.
Policies intended to control land values during periods of high speculation are unlikely to succeed. During the boom times of the 1980s in all three Asian countries, special interest groups and politicians dependent on economic growth failed to anticipate any negative downturn effects. Land policies became disorganized, and conflicts arose among different government departments. For example, some local governments subsidized farmland owners who had already sold their land for conversion to urban uses and had benefited financially from this speculation. Financial institutions provided loans to corporations which depended on land speculation for their corporate earnings. The results were devastating: farmers who wished to farm could not afford to buy farm land; manufacturers could no longer compete when 60 percent of their investments were spent on land costs; and average citizens had an even more difficult time owning a house.
Reevaluating Land and Tax Policy
As land values have dropped in recent years, there is a new opportunity to revise land policies. Special interest groups and land value speculators have softened their opposition to government intervention on land markets. The GATT and WTO (World Trade Organization) negotiations are requiring countries to better coordinate their land policies and general economic policies in the interests of industrial readjustment. Future policies in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan will likely incorporate the following measures:
New regulations will be designed to convert some farmland and environmentally less-sensitive land for housing and mixed-use urban development. The goals are to continue sustainable development and to assist the conversion of the agricultural sector.
Tax reform and exaction-like laws will be introduced to capture the “unearned income” from land speculation. A capital gains tax, land value tax and land value increment tax will be the hallmarks of tax reform. Local government will be given more autonomy to require private developers to share benefits with the community.
Land use planning systems will be coordinated at all levels of government to manage growth. New land use controls will be designed to cope with new economic activities derived from the economic readjustments.
To help advance these land and tax policy reforms, the Lincoln Institute research staff is working with colleagues in each country. The Council of Agriculture in Taiwan, Republic of China, and the Institute are conducting a three-year joint study (1994-97) on land value capture and benefit distribution mechanisms. A team of researchers from the Lincoln Institute and the Korea Tax Institute is researching tax reform for the Korea Ministry of Finance during the 1995-1996 academic year. Both American and Japanese scholars are examining land values in Japan from a macroeconomic perspective.
Alven Lam in a Lincoln Institute fellow whose current research focuses on land value capture and property rights in Asia.
Additional information in the printed newletter.
Chart: Indices of Korea Land Values and Major Economic Indicators: 1980, 1985 and 1990. Land prices, housing prices, national income and wholesale prices are charted. Source: Office of National Statistics, Korea Statistical Yearbook, each year, and Kim, Dai-Young, “Choices for Future Land Policy,” in Land Policy Problems in East Asia, 1994.
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This article is adapted from a policy roundtable report on national spatial development strategies prepared under the auspices of the Lincoln Institute, Regional Plan Association and the University of Pennsylvania School of Design. The roundtable was held in September 2004 at the Pocantico Conference Center of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. The impetus for this project developed in the spring of 2004 in a graduate city planning studio directed by Robert Yaro and Jonathan Barnett, both Practice Professors in City and Regional Planning at Penn, and Visiting Professor Armando Carbonell. With funding support from the Ford Foundation’s Institute of International Education, additional input was provided by a distinguished team of European and American planning experts hosted by Professor Sir Peter Hall at the Institute of Community Studies in London, England.
European efforts to develop policies and investments for the entire continent and for regions that cross national boundaries have been organized under the umbrella of the European Spatial Development Perspective, a set of policy directives and strategies adopted by the European Union in 1999 (Faludi 2002). Over the past generation the EU has initiated a large-scale approach to planning for metropolitan growth, mobility, environmental protection and economic development. Europeans use the umbrella term “spatial planning” to describe this process, involving plans that span regional and national borders and encompass new “network cities” spread out over hundreds of kilometers (see Figure 1). The EU is also mobilizing public and private resources at the continental scale, with bold plans and investments designed to integrate the economies of and reduce the economic disparities between member states and regions, and to increase the competitiveness of the continent in global markets.
By contrast, the United States has no strategy to anticipate and manage comparable concerns, even though the U.S. population is expected to grow another 40 percent by 2050. How can this growth be accommodated in metropolitan regions that are already choking on congestion and approaching build-out under current trends and policies? How can we improve the competitiveness and livability of our own emerging constellation of network cities? How can the U.S. reduce the growing disparities in wealth and population among fast-growing coastal regions, vast interior rural areas and declining industrial cities? How can the U.S. promote regional strategies designed to address these concerns?
Two important precedents have shaped this analysis of America’s spatial development. The national development and conservation strategies prepared by President Thomas Jefferson in 1807 and President Theodore Roosevelt in 1907 stimulated the major infrastructure, conservation and regional economic development strategies that powered America’s economic growth in its first two centuries. Other major strategies and investments promoted in the administrations of Presidents Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Eisenhower also had a profound impact on the nation’s growth. Some examples are the Morrill Act land grant university system, the Homestead Act, and creation of the national rail and interstate highway systems.
Economic, Demographic and Spatial Trends
Rapid population growth
The U.S. Census Bureau forecasts that the nation’s population will grow by 40 percent to 430 million by 2050, whereas most European countries are expected to lose significant numbers of residents, due to declining birth rates and limited immigration. This means we must build half again as much housing and as much commercial and retail space and the infrastructure needed to support these activities in the next half century as we have in the past two centuries.
The study of historical settlement patterns sheds light on current and future patterns. While early settlers clung primarily to the coasts and in compact urban regions, the inventions of rail transportation and later the automobile forever changed settlement patterns and allowed people to set up homes in the interior of the country and in highly decentralized metropolitan areas. Fast-growing Sunbelt states, such as Texas, California and Florida, are expected to see sustained rapid population growth, spurred by the trend of immigrant populations settling in those and surrounding states.
While most central cities will continue to grow at a moderate pace, many metropolitan regions around these urban cores are expected to experience remarkable development. As the city of Philadelphia continues to lose population, for example, its adjacent suburbs and areas further outside the city continue to grow. In general, however, the number of people living in urbanized areas as opposed to rural areas is projected to continue rising, signaling an increase in the amount of urbanized land in the coming decades.
The building out of suburban America
Since 1970 the vast majority of the nation’s economic and population growth has occurred in 30 large metropolitan regions, mostly in their sprawling outer rings. While some cities and inner-ring suburbs are now experiencing infill development and renewed population growth, many others are approaching “build-out,” which increases traffic congestion and commuting times, contributes to loss of farmland, and creates conflicts between new development and green infrastructure, such as public water supplies and wildlife habitat.
In less than three centuries, 46 million acres of America’s virgin landscape have been converted to urban uses. In the next 25 years that number will more than double to 112 million acres. If current growth and land consumption rates continue, another 100 million acres will be urbanized by 2050, at a rate seven times faster than the population will grow.
Uneven and inequitable growth patterns
While most population and economic growth has been in large metropolitan regions, other areas of the country have experienced losses. Large rural regions where resource-based economies or groundwater reserves are in permanent decline are left without the means to support even basic services. A number of large urban centers and second-tier cities also have experienced decades of decline. For example, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis and New Orleans have lost a third or more of their populations since 1960. Even in cities where the outer-ring suburbs have grown, many inner cities and inner-ring suburbs have lost residents, tax base and economic activity, and poverty has become highly concentrated. Many of these places have high concentrations of African-Americans, Native Americans, Latinos and poor whites who will be increasingly disadvantaged as economic opportunities in these regions decline.
In contrast with the U.S., the European Union for decades has invested vast sums to promote development and redevelopment of comparable bypassed areas. These investments have produced dramatic results in revitalizing the economies of Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece, and formerly depressed cities and regions in Europe’s periphery. Similar strategic investments in America’s disadvantaged cities and regions could produce comparable results.
Limited infrastructure capacity
Metropolitan infrastructure of all kinds, most of it built in the last half of the twentieth century, will reach its capacity limits in the first decades of the twenty-first century. Unless new capacity is created in roads, rails, airports, seaports and other systems, the nation’s economic potential will be artificially limited. Federal transportation investments over the past decade have been largely focused on maintaining the existing infrastructure, not on expanding the capacity of these systems.
Over the last 50 years, Americans have become increasingly mobile. The increase in miles traveled per person has been most pronounced in car and aircraft travel, creating new challenges to keep various types of transportation corridors congestion-free. At the same time, congestion poses a serious threat to manufacturing and freight sectors of the economy. Experts believe that by 2020 there will be nearly a doubling of trucks on the roadways over current numbers. Significant policy measures are needed to channel more resources into high-capacity transportation systems for both individual and commercial activity.
Emergence of megalopolis
In 1961 French geographer Jean Gottman described the Boston–Washington Megalopolis. Between now and 2050, more than half of the nation’s population growth, and perhaps as much as two-thirds of its economic growth, will occur in this and seven other emerging megalopolitan regions whose extended networks of metropolitan centers are linked by interstate highway and rail corridors. Similar networks of cities in Europe and Asia are now seen as the new competitive units in the global economy. Major public and private investments are being made in high-speed rail, broadband communications and other infrastructure to strengthen transportation and economic synergies among their component centers.
The New Megalopolis
The new megalopolis is a model for cooperation among the cities and regions in the U.S. that are growing together and creating diseconomies in congested transportation networks, which in turn affect the economic vitality and quality of life of these regions. This model is based on the idea that if the cities in these colliding regions work together they can create a new urban form that will increase economic opportunity and global competitiveness for each individual city and for the nation as a whole.
These component metropolitan areas will have to cooperate in the formation of a structure that takes advantage of the complementary roles of each area while addressing common concerns in the areas of transportation, economic development, environmental protection, and equity. The new megalopolis model will contribute to improving social and economic cohesion along with a better territorial balance, and will support more sustainable development by emphasizing collaboration on important policy issues, infrastructure investments and instruments for facilitating economic growth and job creation.
To facilitate the development of megalopolitan areas, the U.S. could focus on creating a truly intermodal network linking rail, highway and air transportation. Such connections would relieve congested airports and provide greater options for freight movement. The resulting transportation flexibility would be less vulnerable to terrorist attacks and disaster. Furthermore, regional infrastructure and development focused around rail stations would shape and redirect urban growth in more efficient, less sprawling patterns.
Our current direction is building a country whose competitiveness is threatened by inefficient urban forms and declining rural communities. The new megalopolis concept points us in a different direction, one in which urban areas and their surrounding regions work together on a larger scale to address common concerns and share their complementary strengths. This new model would produce an America that is environmentally sustainable, socially equitable, and competitive in an increasingly global economy.
Six distinctive regions can be identified based on common history, geographic location and topography: the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest and West. Most of the nation’s rapid population growth, and an even larger share of its economic expansion, is expected to occur in eight emerging metropolitan areas spread over thousands of square miles and located in every one of these regions (see Figure 2). These megalopolitan areas are becoming America’s economic engines: centers of technological and cultural innovation where the vast majority of immigrants who are driving population and economic growth will assimilate into the economic and social mainstream.
In Europe and Asia similar network cities are already being seen as the new competitive units in the global economy. The European Union and national governments in Europe, China and Japan are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in new intermodal transportation and communication links and other infrastructure to underpin the capacity, efficiency and livability of these regions. In all of these places, new high-speed rail networks are integrating the economies of formerly isolated regions.
Toward an American Spatial Development Perspective
An American Spatial Development Perspective (ASDP) could encompass long-range strategies to achieve five broad national goals.
The federal government could play a crucial role in this process, through collaborations with existing and emerging “bottom-up” networks of interconnected regional strategies, encompassing each of the emerging megalopoli. Ideally, the federal government would help coordinate and “incentivize” these planning efforts, but rely on local and regional initiatives to drive each region’s own strategies.
The federal government could also lead in coordinating infrastructure planning and investments for national and regional intermodal, high-speed transportation networks, as it did in promoting creation of the national rail and interstate highway systems. These investments would be made through partnerships between federal, state and regional government, and private investors. User fees, tolls and fares would cover a substantial portion of the cost of developing and managing these systems.
Regional strategies could also promote investments in major higher education and research institutions needed to maintain the nation’s competitive advantage in technology and create a lifelong learning system to help skilled workers adapt to economic change. This broad approach could also identify the important natural resource systems that sustain public water supplies, biological resources, sense of place and recreational opportunities. Future growth could be designed to reuse formerly used sites and to reclaim and restore impaired landscapes and natural resource systems.
Plans for these infrastructure systems should be closely coordinated with strategies for smaller-scale urban and regional development, to ensure that future development patterns support, and are supported by, these infrastructure investments. Federal and state governments could invest in demonstration projects to test innovative transportation, land use, environmental and other strategies.
Building and Financing the ASDP
The proposed new infrastructure systems and urban development outlined in this article could cost trillions of dollars, much of which could be financed through user fees and public-private partnerships. It should also be possible to employ modest payroll or other taxes to finance some of these investments, which would generate trillions of dollars of new economic capacity for the whole nation. The expected doubling of the national economy by 2050 would expand the gross domestic product by more than $14 trillion (in constant dollars). Redirecting even a small share of the growth of tax revenues in these strategic investments could secure the nation’s economic future.
For over a hundred years, the U.S. has financed major infrastructure projects through a “top-down” system, with major funding from the federal government complemented by state resources. Based on general public agreement of national priorities, this model financed several generations of growth and paid for one of the world’s great infrastructure systems. However, this approach is now being challenged as the needs of maintaining our aging infrastructure systems outpace federal and state funding, to say nothing of new capacity expansion. Today we witness a debate between “donor” and “donee” states over the fairness of federal transportation funds, even as the total amount of federal dollars falls far short of estimated needs. As a result, we find ourselves increasingly starved for capital for infrastructure systems.
To provide more funding for system maintenance and expansion, metropolitan regions are looking to new and innovative financing systems. Public authorities use their tax-free status to attract private dollars through bond issuances, sales and lease-back arrangements. New user fees, such as congestion pricing or high-occupancy-vehicle lanes on toll roads, link charges to those who benefit the most from new investments, creating new revenue streams. And value capture models, such as tax increment financing, allow increases in land values to finance infrastructure investments.
The federal government is advancing instruments such as TIFIA, the Transportation Infrastructure Innovation Act, to stimulate the development of these projects. However, megalopolitan areas have a critical role to play in this emerging system. They provide a vital link between state and federal government and local jurisdictions, which in many cases have the last word over land use decisions. These regional areas transcend political boundaries and capture the true economic and social geography of their communities. And they have the size, capacity and expertise to undertake complex planning strategies.
Armando Carbonell is senior fellow and co-chair of the Lincoln Institute’s Department of Planning and Development. Robert D. Yaro is president of the Regional Plan Association in New York City.
References
Faludi, Andreas, ed. 2002. European spatial planning. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and Regional Plan Association. 2004. Toward an American spatial development perspective. Policy Roundtable Report. September.
University of Pennsylvania School of Design. 2004. Planning for America in a global economy: 2004–2005. City Planning Studio Report. Spring.
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Report from the President on Property Rights
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Cities face major difficulties when attempting to introduce a more efficient property tax system. One such challenge is controlling volatile political issues associated with taxes levied directly on assets, such as the highly visible property tax. The close proximity between the taxing authority and the taxpayer translates into political pressure to reduce taxes and avoid updating property valuations. City officials become an easy target of criticism and may suffer electoral consequences.
Although the property tax is recognized internationally as a preferred instrument to finance urban public services, in most Latin American countries the tax has limited significance as a source of revenue, representing on average 0.32 percent of GDP (De Cesare 2010). Brazilian cities collect an average of about US$46.50 per capita in property taxes per year. However, most cities do not reach the national average. In more than half of the municipalities, revenues do not exceed US$5.00 per capita (Afonso et al. 2010).
The Brazilian Property Tax Model
The property tax (IPTU: Imposto sobre a Propriedade Predial e Territorial Urbana) is a direct tax paid to the local municipality based on the estimated fair market value of real estate property. In Brazil, much of the potential for collecting this tax is lost because local authorities fail to administer the tax correctly and effectively. Discussions of legislative revisions of the IPTU always result in heated debates and intense political response, in many cases causing mayors and other officials to avoid embarking on the process.
An added problem is the strict legal requirement that valuation criteria must be approved by law before the tax base can be updated. The criteria must include the characteristics of the property and its components, as well as the monetary value attached to each component. In other words, it is not enough for Brazilian legislators to set criteria to determine that one property is more valuable than another and therefore must pay a higher tax. The law itself must clarify how a property with certain characteristics will be appraised in monetary terms.
After years of debate, Brazil’s Superior Court ruled in 1996 that a municipal law would be required to update the IPTU tax base whenever the adjustment is higher than the official consumer price index (Statement 160). Before this ruling, cities used to reappraise the property values for tax purposes by executive acts (decrees), independently of the municipal legislature. Since this legal requirement was introduced in 1996, many local governments chose not to send the necessary bills to the municipal legislature for the much-needed updates of property valuation.
In some cases the resulting political disasters served as an alarming inhibitor to any new attempt to revise the tax base. To resolve this dilemma, several cities opted instead to raise the IPTU tax rates to compensate for their reluctance to reappraise properties. Moreover, for each new law approving an assessment update, new types of exemptions or tax reductions tend to be created, often cancelling the efforts to enhance the performance of the IPTU.
As a result of political resistance, the IPTU was often disregarded as a revenue source for municipal finance in Brazil. The largest cities, with more than 500,000 inhabitants, began to concentrate their efforts on the tax on services (ISS: Imposto Sobre Serviços); smaller cities relied more on funds transferred from state and federal government through the municipal revenue-sharing fund (FPM: Fundo de Participação dos Municípios) (table 1).
The federal Applied Economic Research Institute (IPEA 2009) reports the loss of IPTU’s importance as a share of direct municipal revenues at the national level and the rise in revenues from the service tax—an indirect tax that tends to be regressive. The share of the IPTU in direct municipal revenues decreased from 38 percent to 28 percent between 1991 and 2007, causing it to lose its position to the ISS as the principal source of direct municipal revenue (table 2).
An important change that directly affected the IPTU came in December 2009, when the Ministry of Cities published Resolution Act No. 511 establishing National Directives for the Multipurpose Cadastre (CTM: Cadastro Técnico Multifinalitário). This law provided local governments with a valuable standard instrument on which to base their legislative proposals to update the IPTU tax base. The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy had a major role in supporting the development of the technical aspects of this legislation.
The Resolution Act states that property assessment for fiscal purposes is a technical process that must be carried out according to guidelines from the Brazilian Technical Standards Association (ABNT) to reflect fair market value. It also states that an effective IPTU promotes fiscal and social justice by ensuring equitable treatment of taxpayers. Periodic updating of the IPTU tax base is recommended either (1) every four years for cities of 20,000 inhabitants or more (smaller cities may adopt longer cycles); (2) when the assessment ratio is less than 70 percent or greater than 100 percent compared to the market value; or (3) when cumulative property values are not distributed equally, as measured by a dispersion coefficient greater than 30 percent.
What Prompted the Property Tax Reform?
Combined with a strengthened institutional framework, two other factors have put the IPTU back into the current debate about sources of municipal financing in Brazil. The first was the accelerated appreciation of urban land in both large and mid-sized cities. This appreciation was caused principally by economic growth, the housing credit explosion, low taxation, and low risk compared to investment in financial assets from 2003 to 2007 (Carvalho Júnior 2010). The expansion of the real estate sector exposed the discrepancy between the collection potential and the actual flow of funds into the public treasury from the property tax.
A second factor that unleashed the discussion about updating tax assessments to enhance the performance of the IPTU was the global economic crisis that began in 2008 and reached Brazil in 2009. As economic activity declined, reflecting lower consumption and production and a credit contraction, federal transfers to municipalities declined as well. The cities facing this loss of revenue had little alternative but to revive the IPTU, the oldest and most traditional local tax.
In this context, some of the larger Brazilian cities updated their property value maps with revised land value estimates, as well as the construction cost tables used to assess property values, both of which were extremely undervalued. Belo Horizonte, São Paulo, and Salvador are among the cities that acted to strengthen their revenues by updating the tax base for the IPTU. These cities also introduced new policies to guide the implementation of the property tax.
It should be noted that to keep the IPTU tax base unchanged is a risk. One of the major sources of tax injustice, along with the problem of omissions in registering land or development areas, is the use of outdated appraisals when imposing the IPTU (Smolka and De Cesare 2009).
The Case of Belo Horizonte
Belo Horizonte is the capital and largest city of the state of Minas Gerais, located in the southeastern region of Brazil. With a population of 2.4 million, it is the fifth largest Brazilian city and the center of a metropolitan region with a population of approximately 5 million.
The local government has a long history of innovation and good governance. It was a pioneer in introducing the participatory budgeting process in 1993, in adopting GIS applications to improve city management, and in carrying out a widely successful campaign to eradicate hunger, among other noteworthy initiatives. Belo Horizonte collected approximately $332 in property tax per capita per year in 2007, prior to the reform, ranking seventh among Brazil’s large capital cities (Afonso et al. 2010).
The property tax reform started in Belo Horizonte with a revision of the tax base and was guided by the dual desire to eliminate distortions created by its antiquated model and to introduce a new fiscal culture that would support a permanent process of updating property valuation to reflect market variations.
The need for additional revenues and the experience of the 2009 financial crisis also influenced the mayor’s decision. The subsequent reductions in economic activity and federal transfers convinced the local government that it had to establish more sustainable financial conditions to maintain administrative autonomy. Intensifying the use of the IPTU and convincing the lawmakers of this necessity was the first step on the road to update the property tax base.
In devising a strategy for tax reform, the city government realized the change could not be presented simply as a revision of property valuation driven by the need to increase revenues. It also had to involve other aspects, such as measures to mitigate the impact of the tax increase and to provide incentives for taxpayer compliance. Smolka and De Cesare (2009) note that despite the accuracy of valuation estimates, if the reassessment generates large differences in the amount of taxes due, there will be a reaction from taxpayers who are substantially burdened. In this case, plans must be offered that ease such impacts.
The Legislative Process
Once the reform was designed and its virtues and vulnerabilities were identified, the project was submitted first to the municipal legislative council to keep the focus on those empowered to vote and approve the bill. It is a common mistake to seek popular support before or during the voting process, and the executive often loses the battle if it tries to act on two fronts at the same time.
Voting processes in the case of the IPTU are established by municipal law. However, intimate knowledge of the legislative process is necessary, and it is a trump card at the same time. In Belo Horizonte it was important to avoid having either a long, drawn-out process that could leave room for extended questioning or too short a process because an unexpected event could put voting off indefinitely.
Once presented to the lawmakers, all points of the tax reform project were thoroughly clarified. All aspects, positive or negative, were discussed at the council and, of course, favorable aspects were always compared to any noted weaknesses. Legislators must be sheltered from the doubts that are always posed to them and constantly be well-informed and committed to the tax justice criteria embedded in the project. This is the main role of the mayor’s representative, a key member of the core group that implemented the reform. As expected, at the end of November of 2009, the project was approved in its second and final round.
The legislative debate on the bill was both an end in itself and a preparation for the public presentation of the project. During the legislative approval process many expectations were created about the reform, especially by the press. From that point on, the strategy was to promote all of the benefits of the new IPTU system of assessment and collection to quell fears until the actual arrival of the tax bill in January 2010.
The Public Information Campaign
The main instruments used to present the reform to the public were launching a public information campaign and setting up information desks throughout the city to resolve citizen’s queries. The next phase implemented the measures intended to mitigate the impact of the reform and to provide incentives for taxpayer compliance.
In the campaign, the administration emphasized the message that all the revenues from the IPTU are used for works that transform people’s lives. The goal was to make the benefits of IPTU revenues concrete and visible, and that proved to be an efficient way of showing citizens the practical importance of the tax for the development of the city and for the well-being of its citizens. This message was repeated frequently.
In January of 2010, ten taxpayer assistance desks were operating in different parts of the city. Around 200 municipal staff participated directly in assisting taxpayers in more than 20,000 personal consultations. Of these, 26 percent became requests for review of the tax bill. This number was higher than in 2009, but much lower than the pessimistic expectations of those who foresaw a flood of claims (figure 1).
The overall strategy was to determine how well the situation was controlled, which involved implementing a tax structure compatible with the level of claims expected. Building this structure requires extraordinary foresight and attention to soothing the taxpayer and concentrating his attention on what really matters—the correct calculation of the tax and its payment within the timeframe established by law.
However, a good tax structure is not enough. Also important is training staff to provide taxpayer services. Trustworthy, relaxed, quick attention precludes spoiling the quality of the process, the revision of the tax base, and the new tax policies; good taxpayer services also lower the political risks of periodically updating property valuations.
Managing the Process
Among the useful lessons from the Belo Horizonte tax reform process is to avoid updating the tax base only in times of financial crises as an effort to boost revenues. Doing so may undermine the work of instituting accurate valuation practices. Instead, it is advisable to adopt and maintain a permanent updating policy that ensures fairness.
Second, the fairness of the revaluation process should be emphasized in light of the ever-changing market, which imposes price variations that require tax adjustments. Consumption taxes are indiscriminate as to the taxpayer’s economic condition and have a regressive effect, whereas IPTU permits progressive rates and thus helps to improve equity, which in turn improves access to housing, contributes to municipal autonomy, and leads to efficient city planning. Instead of relying primarily on indirect taxes or federal transfers, the municipality that uses the property tax efficiently can reduce social inequalities and better order urban spaces, while also avoiding speculation and helping to preserve the environment (IPEA 2009).
A third important point is to establish clear channels for discussing the reform plan. Preferably, policy steps should be taken by a trusted representative of the mayor who is authorized to negotiate on his behalf through a democratic and collective process. Belo Horizonte established a core group with one person named to coordinate what information will be disclosed and how it will be discussed with the public.
A misunderstanding of the process can create insurmountable resistance and place the complete project in jeopardy. Thus, a key factor is having a well-informed press agent who is capable of dealing with the criticism and inquiries that will surely come, as well as a technical person who knows the reform project well and can offer the explanations required by the different actors involved in the process.
Property Tax Relief Measures
Belo Horizonte succeeded in achieving its goal through arguments for justice and administrative autonomy that culminated in the approval of a complete revision of the property tax system, including the following relief measures.
Evaluating the Results
The final part of the reform is to verify the results. In Belo Horizonte, this evaluation confirmed the success of the entire planning and implementation process, and is a source of information for future improvements. This success can be measured in part by the increase in early payments, which illustrates taxpayer acceptance of the model. Table 3 compares increases in numerous measures from 2009 to 2010, and table 4 compares increases in IPTU revenues for the first six months of both years.
Nevertheless, all of these achievements can be lost over the long term if certain conditions are not met. One such condition is to institutionalize the periodic updating of property values used to calculate the property tax. This is critical since the strategic planning for this reform was motivated precisely by the long period during which the Belo Horizonte land values map had remained unchanged, creating discrepancies from actual market prices and eroding city revenues.
A second condition is to create mechanisms that both guarantee the technical quality of tax assessments and relieve the local government of the political burden of performing the necessary updates. The objective is to make the updating procedure a legal obligation of a technical nature instead of a political decision.
Another option considered was the creation of an assessment committee to perform mass valuations coordinated by municipal authorities. Such a committee would bring together collaborators from entities that operate in the real estate market, such as brokers, builders, private assessors, or financing entities. This measure could help to mollify the political overtones that permeate the property tax system and develop property reassessment programs that rely on participants instead of critics.
Belo Horizonte’s successful experience (albeit with room for improvement) can serve as a reference for other cities that expect to update their property cadastre and their guidelines for mass assessment. Table 5 outlines some of the issues to be considered.
References
Afonso, José, et al. 2010. The urban property tax (IPTU) in Brazil. Unpublished research report. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Carvalho Júnior, Pedro Humberto Bruno de. 2010. Defasagens na cobrança de IPTU. Desafios do Desenvolvimento 61 (January/February): 32.
De Cesare, Claudia M. 2010. Overview of the property tax in Latin America. Working Paper. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
IPEA (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada). 2009. https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/comunicado/090827_comunicadoipea28.pdf (27August).
Smolka, Martim, and Claudia De Cesare. 2009. Necessária, revisão requer transparência. Folha de São Paulo, October 14.
About the Author
Omar Pinto Domingos has a law degree from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and has a postgraduate degree in administration of municipal taxation from the Center for Specialization in Law, in association with the Gama Filho University. He is a fiscal auditor and property tax manager in the Municipality of Belo Horizonte, and has participated on many tax reform commissions. He is also a frequent lecturer on fiscal and taxation themes in programs sponsored by the Lincoln Institute’s Program on Latin America and the Caribbean. This article is based on his presentation to a seminar in Curitiba cosponsored with Brazil’s Ministry of Cities in May 2010.
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Tao Ran is a professor in the School of Economics at Renmin University of China and director of the university’s China Center for Public Economics and Governance. He is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institute. His field of specialization centers on China’s urbanization and the political economy of the economic transition, land and household registration reform, and local governance and public finance in rural China. His diverse research has appeared in the Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Studies, Land Economics, Urban Studies, Political Studies, China Quarterly, and Land Use Policy.
Dr. Tao received his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago in 2002. He is a long-time research fellow at the Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy and was previously a Shaw Research Fellow of Chinese Economy at the University of Oxford’s Institute of Chinese Studies. With funding from PKU–Lincoln Institute and from other agencies, such as the National Science Foundation of China, he led a research team and started a large survey on urban migrants and dispossessed farmers in 12 cities across China’s four major urbanizing areas: the Yangtze River Delta (Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces), the Pearl River Delta (Guangdong province), Chengdu–Chongqing region (Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality), and Bohai Bay Area (Hebei and Shandong provinces). He is also working on a project to pilot new urban village redevelopment models in Shenzhen municipality and the Pearl River Delta.
Land Lines: Why is the study of China’s political economy and its transition so important to the country’s future?
Tao Ran: After enjoying nearly double-digit growth in the past three decades, China has become the shining star of the 21st-century global economy. People marvel at its successful transformation from a third-world country into the world’s largest manufacturing base and second largest economy—an evolution that lifted 450 million people out of poverty. As China grows, however, it faces widening income inequality, serious corruption and pollution, and social injustice that has left hundreds of millions of temporary migrants without access to decent urban public services and tens of millions of undercompensated, dispossessed farmers transitioning into industrialized urban economies.
My research explores the institutional sources of China’s fast growth in the past decades as well as the implications, positive and negative, of China as an alternative model for the developing world—as an effective, growth-oriented autocracy with heavy investments in infrastructure and industries, massive exports of manufacturing goods, and selective government intervention and industrial policies. I believe it’s essential to predict what will happen to China in the near future, because it will have important implications for the whole developing world.
Land Lines: Why do you think it is important to study land and household registration? What do these studies say about the current state of China’s socioeconomic structure?
Tao Ran:China is in the midst of an urban revolution, sustaining a massive volume of rural-to-urban migration every year in the last three decades. About 200 million rural migrants are working and living in Chinese cities. Yet, under the persistent hukou (household registration) system, a majority of migrants with hukou registration in their homelands exist as “outsiders” or “temporary population” in their new cities of residence. They are denied access to welfare benefits, subsidized public housing, and urban public schools.
Their difficulties are compounded by highly distorted land use patterns. Typically, when countries urbanize, less than 20 percent of newly utilized land supports manufacturing, leaving a majority of that territory to accommodate migrant housing. Under the current Chinese land requisition-leasing system, local governments lease around 40 percent of newly utilized land to build industrial parks, leaving only 30 to 40 percent of the area every year for residential purposes.
China’s current land use and household registration systems help to generate several dual socioeconomic structures as well. Besides the widely acknowledged urban-rural dichotomy, there is also a dual structure of urban permanent residents versus migrants. Another duality separates homeowners from urban rentees who lag far behind in terms of wealth accumulation. As 90 percent of homeowners are permanent residents, and 95 percent of renters are migrants, these dual structures lead to a highly divided society.
Land Lines: What land use challenges will China face in the coming decade?
Tao Ran:Many cities have constructed industrial parks, or “garden-style factories,” that make very inefficient use of land. Industrial companies lease land at an extremely low price and use only a part of it, leaving other areas undeveloped or allocated for large-scale greenification projects. Local governments undersupply residential and commercial land in order to maximize profits, leading to undersupplied commercial/residential land markets, followed by serious bubbles in the real estate sector. The rapid rise in urban housing prices and the formation of a real estate bubble over the past decade has made it impossible for the vast majority of rural migrant populations to afford commodity housing in cities. In fact, even new labor force entrants with university degrees find that today’s housing prices are far higher than they can afford. Clearly, housing affordability has become the main challenge to China today.
The aftermath of the 2008 world financial crisis had a huge impact on China. The fiscal and financial stimulus package implemented by the central government mainly benefitted local governments, which have continued to invest in even more industrial parks. Consequently, the Chinese economy has experienced more overcapacity in industrial infrastructure and manufacturing goods as well as more serious housing bubbles across all tiers of cities. This path is all the more unsustainable considering that China already suffered from overcapacity in manufacturing and real estate bubbles before 2008. Given the moral hazards of borrowing from state-owned banks and the fiscal illusion that the housing bubble will continue, local government debts have reached an unprecedented level of 10 trillion RMB, half of which was accumulated after 2009. I f there is no real reform in the systems governing land, hukou registration, and local public finance, the Chinese economy will slow down quite significantly. In the worst-case scenario, the housing bubble will burst, leading to a full-scale financial and economic crisis.
Land Lines: What are some potential policy implications of your research on local governance and public finance in rural China?
Tao Ran: China needs to reform its land and household registration systems so that migrants can access affordable housing and decent public schooling services in cities. Land has played an essential role in the making of China’s growth model in the past 15 years—but it is also responsible for current economic woes. In my view, a reform package that centers on land and urbanization provides the best chance of creating a better balance between the country’s import and export rates by unleashing huge domestic demand and relieving the overcapacity problem in many Chinese industries.
I propose a gradualist approach that aims to build a more equitable dual-track system. Under the current land regulatory regime, land ownership is separated into urban and rural; while urban governments have the authority to allocate rural areas for urban development, rural governments do not have the same rights in reciprocity. This bias deprives rural residents of their development rights and leads the Chinese economy down a destructive path.
Total liberalization, however, may result in a crash of the existing housing bubbles when a large volume of rural land is made available to the market. To alleviate this concern on the part of local governments and urban homeowners, China may need to set up a rental property market track targeting the 200 million rural migrants who already live and work in cities. Half of them currently live in dormitories provided by their employers, and the other half reside in illegally built housing in urban villages without good infrastructure or access to urban public services such as education for migrating children. I propose a reform that would allow rural communities in suburban villages of migrant-receiving cities to take their nonagricultural land onto the urban housing market under one condition: for the first 10 to 15 years, they could build properties used only for rental purposes. After the transitional period, those houses would gain full rights, and they could be sold directly on the housing market.
Land Lines: What are the advantages of this design?
Tao Ran: Insulating developable rural land in the rental market initially provides a cushion for the existing real estate market and prevents market panics and a bursting of the housing bubble. Merging the two tracks, however, would send speculators a credible signal that residential building prices will not rise further, and so the central government could phase out its strict regulations on real estate markets installed since 2010 to curb the housing bubble. Such a reform package would contribute to a healthy growth of the housing market. Moreover, granting rural communities development rights—even if those rights were restricted during the transition period—would open the legal channel for them to apply for development loans.
This opportunity would unleash a housing construction boom in urban villages and suburban areas and provide a lift for construction-related industries with significant overcapacity. Unlike the current housing bubble, this kind of real estate development is more socially beneficial and economically sustainable. Rural residents, particularly those living close to urban centers, would benefit directly. The growth in the rental property track also makes housing affordable for hundreds of millions of migrant workers, enabling them to settle in cities permanently. Urbanization has the potential to turn the Chinese economy away from the investment-driven model.
Land Lines: What is the key to the success of this reform?
Tao Ran: The attitude of local governments is critical. Their concern over revenues is perfectly legitimate and needs to be addressed in the reform package. Under the current system, local governments are burdened with too many spending responsibilities, and they lack adequate revenues. After the reform, they would have limited power of land requisition and lose the sizeable land lease fees and bank loans associated with that power. In the long run, municipalities should levy property taxes to generate a stable source of income for local public finance. Considering the strong resistance from wealthy and politically powerful residents of the cities introducing the property tax on a trial basis, however, it is unrealistic to expect this new tax to take effect soon.
I believe that another untapped source for local governments is underutilized industrial land. According to various reports, the floor-area ratio is only about 0.3 to 0.4 for industrial parks even in China’s developed areas. Through reorganization by negotiation, it is possible to double land development intensity and convert some industrial land for residential and commercial construction. Our estimates show that local governments would be more than compensated for giving up the power of land requisition, and they could also use these revenues to pay back the debts and avert a financial crisis.
At the current stage of development, no reform in the Chinese economy is going to be easy. One certainly should not have any illusions about a quick fix. But the proposed dual-track reform package offers some real hope of boosting domestic consumption and alleviating the overcapacity problem in many sectors. One particularly favorable factor for this reform is the new leadership’s emphasis on urbanization. Premier Li Keqiang has spent years on this issue and seems to have a genuine interest in achieving breakthroughs. This proposal may provide a realistic roadmap for such reforms.
Land Lines: What lessons can China teach?
Tao Ran: The Chinese model successfully effects growth. It also generates several negative consequences, such as the over-leveraging of land, social unrest resulting from land grabbing, environmental damages, and housing bubbles, which burden the urban population. The Chinese lesson is that for a country to grow, the government is essential; but that same government may overdo things and, in the long run, generate distortions that finally damage the sustainability of the economy and society.
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Los viejos residentes de Detroit recuerdan las décadas de 1950 y 1960 como una era dorada de la planificación urbana. Bajo Charles Blessing, el carismático jefe de planificación de la ciudad entre 1953 y 1977, Detroit llevó a cabo una serie de intentos ambiciosos para rediseñar su paisaje urbano. Dejando de lado un siglo de conventillos y estructuras comerciales pequeñas, se creó el emprendimiento residencial de Lafayette Park, diseñado por Mies van der Rohe, adosado al este del centro, un parque para industrias ligeras, al oeste del centro y manzana tras manzana de viviendas de baja altura para residentes de ingresos moderados, en el norte. Edward Hustoles, un veterano planificador jubilado de aquellos años, recuerda que Blessing era tan reconocido como visionario en Detroit que bosquejaba sus planes sobre el mantel mientras almorzaba en un buen restaurante; si el mesero se quejaba, Blessing enrollaba el mantel y le decía que lo agregara a su cuenta.
Pero los tiempos cambian. Blessing se jubiló en la década de 1970, y para entonces Detroit estaba sumiéndose en su larga y agonizante pendiente hacia la ruina del cordón industrial. El doble flagelo de la desindustrialización y el crecimiento suburbano desordenado, que lastimó a tantas ciudades del corazón de los Estados Unidos, afectó a Detroit de manera particularmente intensa. Muchas fábricas, tan modernas cuando se construyeron a comienzos del siglo XX, parecían obsoletas en las décadas de 1950 y 1960, y en su mayoría fueron abandonadas a fines de la década de 1980. La nueva cultura suburbana del automóvil, facilitada por la construcción de la red federal de carreteras y otras medidas, alentó a cientos de miles de residentes a abandonar la ciudad para asentarse en Birmingham, Troy y otras comunidades periféricas. El éxodo se aceleró por las tensas relaciones raciales, que se hicieron particularmente tóxicas después de los disturbios civiles de 1967. Sin habitantes, el vasto inventario de pequeñas viviendas de madera para trabajadores se fue deteriorando; los incendios provocados, la droga, el hurto de metales, el deterioro y otros males corroyeron barrios enteros, forzando a la ciudad a demoler manzana tras manzana de casas en las décadas de 1990 y 2000, una tendencia acelerada por la crisis inmobiliaria de 2007–2008, que creó un círculo vicioso de mora en el pago de impuestos sobre la propiedad y ejecuciones hipotecarias, diezmando lo que quedaba del mercado inmobiliario de Detroit. Hoy, las mejores estimaciones sugieren que por lo menos 62 de los 360 km2 de Detroit están vacíos, y otros 15 a 23 km2 tienen viviendas desocupadas que se tienen que demoler. Agréguense los parques municipales que la ciudad ya no mantiene y los derechos de paso abandonados, como las viejas líneas de ferrocarril, y un 25 por ciento de Detroit (un área mayor que Manhattan) está vacante.
Para la década de 1990, la planificación urbana se había quedado obsoleta como foco y guía. Una serie de alcaldes trataron de engancharse en cualquier proyecto vistoso que surgiera: el tan difamado Renaissance Center en la década de 1970, o la apertura de casinos a finales de los noventa. El departamento de planificación municipal de Detroit encontró una nueva función administrando subvenciones federales en bloque para el desarrollo comunitario y, en años recientes, el departamento ha tenido más contadores que planificadores. Pero en 2010, el entonces alcalde David Bing lanzó una iniciativa estratégica para abordar el problema generalizado de suelos vacantes y la carga que ejercía sobre los servicios y presupuestos municipales. Dicho esfuerzo culminó en 2013 con la publicación de Detroit Future City, un marco de referencia integral de 354 páginas para fortalecer y volver a expandir los barrios deteriorados de Detroit y dar un nuevo destino a sus lotes y edificios vacíos en las décadas futuras. Detroit Future City, con sus estrategias de “reverdecimiento” extendido –incluyendo “paisajes productivos” que reutilizarían suelos vacantes mediante reforestación, lagunas de retención de agua de lluvia, instalación de paneles solares y producción de alimentos– recibió elogios como una nueva manera visionaria de pensar sobre las viejas ciudades industriales y de incluir a ciudadanos comunes y corrientes en la conversación sobre su futuro. “En los anales de participación cívica y planificación comunitaria, Detroit Future City es probablemente el ejercicio de planificación y extensión comunitaria más amplio que he visto”, dijo George W. McCarthy, presidente y Director Ejecutivo del Instituto Lincoln de Políticas de Suelo.
Orígenes y esencia
En 2010, tres años antes de que Detroit declarara la bancarrota municipal más grande de la historia de los EE.UU., la población se había reducido a 700.000 habitantes, de su pico de 1,85 millones en 1950. El alcalde de entonces, David Bing, se vio obligado a reajustar los servicios municipales a la reducción de la base imponible y del paisaje urbano. Su sugerencia inicial a los medios, de que iba a mudar a los pocos habitantes que quedaban fuera de los barrios “fantasma” más abandonados de Detroit, generó comparaciones despiadadas con los proyectos de renovación urbana del pasado e incluso abucheos acusatorios de “limpieza étnica”; su idea fue rápidamente guardada en un cajón. Ese mismo año, el alcalde y sus principales funcionarios organizaron una serie de reuniones comunitarias llamadas Detroit Works para iniciar un diálogo con la ciudadanía sobre la necesidad de repensar cómo debería operar la ciudad en el futuro. Pero los residentes tenían otras ideas. Las reuniones enseguida derivaron en sesiones caóticas de quejas, en las que cientos de residentes demandaban mejor alumbrado en las calles, protección policial y otros servicios municipales con urgencia.
McCarthy, que en ese entonces trabajaba en la Fundación Ford y respaldaba los esfuerzos de revitalización de Detroit, dijo que los líderes deberían haber pensado antes de actuar. “Cuando se incorpora a ciudadanos normales al proceso de planificación, lo consideran como si fuera una reunión pública y la manera de hacerse notar es gritar más fuerte”, dijo. “Si uno es sincero sobre la participación ciudadana, tiene que tomarse el tiempo para capacitar a los ciudadanos para ser planificadores. Hay que dedicar una cantidad importes de tiempo y atención para que la gente pueda comprender que la planificación consiste en tomar decisiones difíciles en un entorno constreñido”.
Con financiamiento de la Fundación Kresge y otras fuentes, la ciudad se reagrupó y contrató a equipos de consultores, algunos respetados a nivel nacional, como la Directora de Proyecto Toni L. Griffin, profesora y directora del Centro J. Max Bond de Diseño para la Ciudad Justa en la Facultad Spitzer de Arquitectura de City College en Nueva York. Con el liderazgo de Griffin, comenzaron a delinear el documento que se convertiría en Detroit Future City.
El grupo tuvo cuidado en evitar la palabra “plan” cuando se lo presentaron al público. A diferencia de un plan de ordenamiento convencional, que básicamente crea un mapa de qué usos se permitirá en los distintos lugares antes de que el sector privado llegue para desarrollarlos, Detroit Future City es un marco de referencia estratégico para pensar en los distintos tipos de barrio y cómo podría evolucionar cada uno, dadas las tendencias existentes.
“No queríamos dejar a la ciudad imágenes estáticas ilustrativas de cómo podría ser”, dice Griffin. “Ya había montones de ellas. Queríamos dejar a la ciudad una herramienta para que la gente pudiera manejar el cambio, porque, como ya se sabe, Detroit todavía tiene mucho por definir en términos de gobierno, estructuras fiscales, servicios municipales, pérdida de población y la composición siempre cambiante de suelos vacantes”.
El marco de referencia tenía que permitir a los dirigentes tomar decisiones mientras se producía el cambio a lo largo del tiempo. “Ofrece distintas estructuras para tomar decisiones que permiten, por ejemplo, decir: si esta es la condición actual, estos son los distintos tipos de opciones que se pueden considerar para pasar de A a B”, dice Griffin. Para simplificar: Si un barrio está mostrando un nivel significativo y creciente de vacancia, pero sigue teniendo un inventario utilizable de viviendas y comercios, el suelo vacante en esa zona se podría convertir en área de producción de alimentos o en un campo de paneles solares para alimentar a las empresas locales. Pero un barrio con poca vacancia y niveles mucho más altos de densidad podría planificar emprendimientos internos para sus pocos lotes vacantes. En vez de sugerir que la esquina de Woodward Avenue y 7 Mile Road debería tener un centro comercial, el marco de referencia ofrece una serie de ejemplos de lo que podría ocurrir dadas ciertas tipologías de barrios.
El lema fue: “Cada barrio tiene un futuro, pero no necesariamente el mismo futuro”.
Las estrategias de reverdecimiento de Detroit Future City fueron particularmente importantes y llamaron la mayor atención debido a la gran cantidad de suelos vacantes en los que la opción de desarrollo inmobiliario no era realista, y probablemente no lo fuera por muchos años más; quizá un tercio de la ciudad reclama un nuevo propósito y uso. Los puntos con más lotes vacantes del mapa se podrían hacer productivos con la instalación de campos de paneles solares productores de energía, reforestación, agricultura o “infraestructura azul”, como lagunas de retención de agua de lluvia, biocanales de drenaje y canales que proporcionan agua para riego agrícola y que desvían el agua de lluvia y la nieve derretida del sistema de alcantarillado combinado de Detroit, ya de por sí sobrecargado. Casi todos estos usos serían presuntamente esfuerzos privados, pero requerían de permisos municipales y quizá otro tipo de asistencia, como cambios de zonificación o sociedades con varios grupos filantrópicos o sin fines de lucro. “Hay que contar con una estrategia de reverdecimiento para poder usar el suelo de manera que, como mínimo, no presente una carga para las áreas pobladas existentes y, como máximo, aumente la calidad de vida, la productividad económica y la calidad medioambiental de la población de Detroit”, dice Alan Mallach, un consultor de Detroit Future City, fellow no residente del Brookings Institution, y autor de Regenerating America’s Legacy Cities (Cómo regenerar las ciudades tradicionales de los EE.UU.), publicado por el Instituto Lincoln.
Pero el plan contempla también densidades de población significativamente mayores en aquellas zonas de Detroit que ya se están regenerando, como el área extendida del centro, donde profesionales jóvenes han provocado un resurgimiento residencial recientemente, y donde empresas pioneras como Quicken Loans, que se mudó al centro en 2010, han llenado torres de oficinas previamente vacantes. Ello sugiere que los hospitales y corredores industriales existentes en Detroit podrían y deberían ver concentradas en ellos nuevas inversiones para aumentar las oportunidades de capacitación laboral y nuevos emprendimientos residenciales y minoristas en esos nodos. Los distritos de empleo claves se podrían interconectar con nuevas opciones de transporte público, como la línea de tranvía M-1 que se está construyendo a lo largo de Woodward Avenue, la calle principal de la ciudad, con financiamiento público-privado. La construcción de esta línea de 5 kilómetros de largo a un costo de US$140 millones comenzó a mediados de 2014, y conectará el centro desde Jefferson Avenue hasta el área de New Center, otro centro de actividad, a lo largo del distrito de Midtown, que se está revitalizando rápidamente. Se espera que la línea comience a operar a fines de 2016. Si los votantes aprueban un nuevo amillaramiento del impuesto sobre la propiedad que se presentará a su consideración presuntamente en 2016, la línea M-1 podría ser suplementada por un sistema regional de tránsito rápido por autobús que se construiría en los próximos años.
Mallach describe Detroit Future City “como un análisis realista de lo que está ocurriendo, para sugerir cómo gastar el dinero, dónde realizar las inversiones, a qué dar prioridad, etc.”.
“Detroit Future City ofrece un menú”, agrega. “No dice: este sitio deberá convertirse en una granja urbana; sólo sugiere opciones”.
Participación ciudadana
Las decisiones sobre qué ocurriría y dónde quedarían a criterio del proceso político, con la participación de los vecinos, dirigentes municipales y otras partes interesadas. De esa manera, la opinión pública sería crucial para el éxito del programa.
En 2012, el equipo de Detroit Future City contrató a Dan Pitera, profesor de la Facultad de Arquitectura de la Universidad de Detroit Mercy (UDM), para diseñar una nueva y mejor estrategia de participación que recogiera y orientara el deseo de cambio de los residentes. Los esfuerzos abarcaron desde sesiones de charla informales en torno a una “mesa itinerante” diseñada por los estudiantes de arquitectura de UDM, que se ubicó en varios lugares de la ciudad, hasta una serie de reuniones en centros comunitarios, donde 100.000 residentes participaron en debates sobre la rehabilitación urbana.
Durante la etapa de planificación de 2012 y principios de 2013, se abrió una nueva oficina al público en el distrito de Eastern Market para que los residentes pudieran conocer al personal, ver planes, responder a encuestas, etc. El personal de la oficina incluía a miembros del Centro de Diseño Colaborativo de UDM, dirigido por Pitera, y de la organización sin fines de lucro Recursos Legales Comunitarios. El grupo de Pitera también creó una aplicación de teléfono móvil para fomentar la participación comunitaria. Y el equipo creó 25 carteles de colores para identificar los distintos temas, como suelos vacantes o jardines comunitarios, y los distribuyó a millares por toda la ciudad.
En una reunión de sábado por la mañana en 2012 en la Misión de Rescate de Detroit, unos 50 residentes tuvieron una vista previa de lo que pasaría con distintos barrios, dependiendo de las condiciones existentes y los deseos de los residentes. Algunos de los asistentes expresaron una opinión positiva. “El diálogo es justo lo que necesitamos para volver a considerar los problemas reales”, dijo Phillis Judkins, de 65 años de edad, proveniente del distrito de North End. Y Larry Roberts, de 70 años de edad, quien vive en el barrio Indian Village de Detroit, dijo que las reuniones públicas de 2012 fueron más productivas que las reuniones masivas más bien caóticas de Detroit Works en el otoño de 2010. “Hoy parece que hay gente con ideas que nos pueden hacer progresar”, dijo.
Por supuesto, todavía había un poco de escepticismo sobre cuántas de estas buenas ideas se convertirían en políticas reales en una ciudad con un presupuesto tan restringido, y cuántas se concretarían alguna vez. “Si el gobierno municipal adopta este plan y nos comunica lo que va a hacer, creo que las cosas van a salir bien”, dijo Roberts.
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La controversia de la agricultura urbana
Un uso controvertido del suelo que la oficina ha fomentado proviene de una tendencia ya conocida en Detroit: la agricultura urbana. En los últimos 15 años, Detroit ha presenciado el nacimiento de más de 1.000 pequeños jardines comunitarios, incluidos entre ellos proyectos reconocidos a nivel nacional como Earthworks y D-Town Farm, cada uno de los cuales abarca unas pocas hectáreas. Pero en la actualidad la mayor parte de la actividad agrícola la realizan voluntarios, y la producción la consumen los vecinos, se dona a bancos de alimentos o, en algunos casos, se vende en mercados de agricultores locales. En años recientes Detroit se ha visto sumido en un intenso debate sobre la posibilidad de ampliar esta actividad a escala de agricultura comercial. Algunos proyectos, como Hantz Farms y RecoveryPark, han elaborado planes ambiciosos para convertir cientos de hectáreas para la producción de alimentos. Pero por el momento cada uno de estos esfuerzos tiene una escala relativamente pequeña mientras el debate sobre la oportunidad de la agricultura comercial continúa.
De todas maneras, el equipo de DFC sigue comprometido a producir muchos más alimentos dentro de la ciudad, tanto en terrenos vacantes como en fábricas abandonadas, donde se podrían realizar cultivos hidropónicos. El equipo de DFC, por ejemplo, está trabajando con RecoveryPark para diseñar un sistema de retención hídrica para regar los cultivos.
Como mínimo, la agricultura urbana podría ayudar a algunos emprendedores de alimentación locales a hacer crecer sus empresas, generar puestos de empleo y ampliar la base imponible, aunque sea en una escala modesta. La producción de alimentos también ayuda a generar un propósito comunitario alrededor de una actividad, eleva la conciencia sobre la nutrición y crea un nuevo uso productivo para lotes vacantes y fábricas en ruinas. “Detroit tiene la oportunidad de ser la primera ciudad del mundo con alimento asegurado”, dijo Kinkead.
Pero los funcionarios municipales no han aprobado aún estos proyectos agrícolas comerciales en gran escala, por temor a que los problemas secundarios, como polvo, ruido y olores, se les vayan fuera de control. Otros cuestionan si los bajos márgenes de las economías agrícolas (que dependen del trabajo pesado realizado en su mayoría por migrantes que ganan el salario mínimo) pudieran producir ingresos y trabajos suficientes como para justificar esta estrategia. McCarthy sigue siendo uno de los escépticos. “Creía que no era una buena idea cultivar productos alimenticios”, dijo. “La ecuación económica no lo justifica; los costos son prohibitivos, ya que no hace falta ir demasiado lejos para llegar a suelos agrícolas excelentes fuera de Detroit a un décimo del precio”. Así que el debate continúa, mientras el equipo de implementación de DFC sigue trabajando para producir más alimentos en los suelos vacantes de Detroit.
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En el ejercicio del actual alcalde, Mike Duggan, quien se hizo cargo del gobierno en 2014, se ha abierto una serie de oficinas en los barrios para comunicarse con los ciudadanos más de cerca que las administraciones anteriores, y recoger sus inquietudes. El nivel de participación comunitaria a la fecha ha puesto en evidencia que los habitantes de Detroit no se han dado por vencidos, incluso en los barrios más perjudicados.
La hora de la verdad
Felizmente, la preocupación de que Detroit Future City languidezca en algún cajón acumulando polvo, como tantos otros documentos lo hicieron antes en Detroit, parece infundada. Con el respaldo financiero y el liderazgo de Kresge, se estableció la Oficina de Implementación de Detroit Future City (DFC) como una organización sin fines de lucro encargada de implementar las visiones y sugerencias del plan. Dan Kinkead, un arquitecto que ayudó a escribir Detroit Future City, fue nombrado director de proyectos. El grupo tiene una sede permanente en el distrito New Center de Detroit y una plantilla de 12 miembros, incluyendo el personal disponible a través de varios programas de becarios se ha puesto en marcha en la ciudad. Kenneth Cockrel, un expresidente del Concejo Municipal de Detroit que ejerció brevemente como alcalde interino después de que el entonces alcalde Kwame Kilpatrick dimitiera por un escándalo en 2008, fue contratado a finales de 2013 para ser el director de la oficina de implementación.
A comienzos de 2015, la oficina de implementación había puesto en marcha múltiples proyectos piloto en alianza con otras organizaciones. Estos incluyen:
Campos solares. En colaboración con Focus: HOPE, organización sin fines de lucro para la capacitación laboral de la ciudad, y una pequeña empresa emergente, el equipo de DFC tiene pensado cubrir alrededor de 6 hectáreas de suelos vacantes con paneles solares. Kinkead estima que el campo podría producir cinco megavatios de energía, suficiente para alimentar varios cientos de casas. Los planificadores esperan comenzar el proyecto este año o el que viene, pero no se sabe bien a cuántas personas va a dar empleo.
Lagunas de retención de agua de lluvia. En el lado este de Detroit, el personal de DFC está considerando crear una serie de lagunas de retención de agua de lluvia en un barrio residencial, para evitar que drene en el sistema de alcantarillado. El barrio, conocido como Jefferson Village, había sido destinado a viviendas unifamiliares 15 años antes, pero ese proyecto quedó paralizado por falta de financiamiento, dejando docenas de lotes vacantes y muy poca demanda por ellos. Pero, con el financiamiento de la Fundación Erb local y con el asesoramiento del Departamento de Aguas y Alcantarillado de Detroit, el equipo de DFC ha identificado varias docenas de lotes vacantes para las lagunas de retención. Prevén que los propietarios cercanos podrían recibir una reducción en sus facturas de agua, puesto que el departamento ya no tendría que construir y mantener la infraestructura de grandes tuberías necesaria para recolectar el agua de lluvia que se mezcla con las aguas residuales. Si el esfuerzo resulta exitoso, se ampliará al resto de la ciudad.
Amortiguadores de carbono en los bordes de las carreteras. Una de las recomendaciones de DFC, la plantación de árboles como amortiguadores de carbono junto a las calles y carreteras principales, dio lugar, junto con la organización sin fines de lucro Greening of Detroit, a la mayor campaña de plantación de árboles de la ciudad a finales de 2014 en el lado oeste de Detroit, cerca de la carretera Southfield, uno de los conectores principales de norte a sur. Alrededor de 300 árboles fueron plantados por voluntarios en un solo día a lo largo de varias cuadras. Cuando maduren, estos árboles absorberán por lo menos algunas de las emisiones de carbono de la carretera.
Trish Hubbell, vocera de Greening of Detroit, dijo que la alianza con el equipo de implementación de DFC para este tipo de iniciativas eleva la visibilidad de cada proyecto, lo cual a su vez contribuye a la recaudación de fondos. Y el equipo de DFC aporta una gran cantidad de conocimientos sobre temas de uso del suelo en cada uno de estos empeños.
“Su valor más importante es que tienen un marco de referencia, de manera que pueden ayudar a determinar dónde se tienen que hacer las cosas”, dijo Hubbell. “El marco de referencia agrega valor a todas las oportunidades que se presenten”.
Construcción de consenso
En vez de ignorar Detroit Future City como un producto de una administración previa, el alcalde Duggan ha apoyado públicamente esta iniciativa como guía propia. Su asesor principal para temas laborales y económicos se refiere a su ejemplar ya desgastado de Detroit Future City como su “Biblia” para reorganizar la ciudad.
Jean Redfield, Directora Ejecutiva de Next-Energy, una organización sin fines de lucro de Detroit que trabaja por un futuro de energía sostenible para la ciudad, tiene otro ejemplar de Detroit Future City sobre su escritorio. “Lo uso mucho para encontrar el lenguaje específico necesario para hablar de opciones específicas”, dijo. “Uso algunos de los mapas y estadísticas con regularidad”. Y el equipo de NextEnergy colabora con el equipo de implementación de DFC para planificar una variedad de proyectos de infraestructura verdes y azules. “Nuestros caminos se cruzan con frecuencia”, declaró. “Allá donde surja una pregunta o un problema sobre el Departamento de Energía o la ciudad de Detroit relacionado con el uso del suelo, la infraestructura de energía, el alumbrado de calles o proyectos solares, frecuentemente trabajamos codo a codo con ellos”.
Como mencionamos, el equipo de implementación actúa más como asesor principal de otras agencias, como Greening of Detroit o el Departamento de Aguas y Alcantarillado de Detroit, que como protagonista. El Director de Implementación de DFC, Kenneth Cockrel, denomina al equipo una “agencia de planificación no gubernamental”. Explica: “Brindamos información para poder tomar decisiones, pero no tomamos las decisiones nosotros mismos. En última instancia, las recomendaciones del marco de referencia serán implementadas por el alcalde y el Concejo Municipal, si es que deciden ejecutarlas. Ellos son los que las pondrán en práctica”.
Cockrel también compara la implementación de Detroit Future City “con lo que ocurre cuando un libro se convierte en una película. No se filma el libro palabra por palabra y página por página. Algunas cosas se dejan de lado, y otras aparecen en la película. Me imagino que en última instancia esta será la estrategia utilizada por la administración Duggan”.
Como cualquier organización nueva, el equipo de DFC sigue afinando su papel a la búsqueda de dónde puede contribuir más. Kinkead concuerda que su papel se puede describir mejor con una paráfrasis del viejo lema corporativo de BASF: El equipo de DFC no implementa muchos proyectos innovadores en Detroit; simplemente hace que esos proyectos sean mejores.
“Vivimos en un mundo escurridizo”, dice Kinkead. “Es un tipo de juego distinto, pero nuestra misión se basa en brindar ayuda a los demás”.
A comienzos de 2015, quedó claro que muchas de las ideas innovadoras del corazón de Detroit Future City, como las estrategias de reverdecimiento, la producción de energía, los árboles como amortiguadores de carbono, los nuevos emprendimientos dedicados a distritos que ya son densos, que parecían ideas traídas por los pelos en 2010, cuando el entonces alcalde Bing lanzó su campaña Detroit Works, se han convertido en ideas normales.
“Ya no son sólo los ecologistas o activistas del cambio climático los que hablan sobre bosques de carbono; son los residentes y directores ejecutivos de las corporaciones de desarrollo comunitario”, dice Griffin. “Los líderes empresariales y los filántropos ahora reconocen su importancia. Un resultado importante de este trabajo es que hay un espectro más amplio de la ciudadanía que habla de estos temas, aunque no sean necesariamente una cuestión fundamental para sus actividades cotidianas.
Quizá sea igualmente importante la conciencia generalizada de que Detroit tiene que proporcionar servicios municipales de manera distinta, dada la realidad de los problemas económicos y la pérdida de población de la ciudad. La ciudad emergió con éxito de la bancarrota a finales de 2014, pero en el mejor de los casos esto le ha dado a Detroit un respiro para comenzar a crecer de nuevo. Si este crecimiento vuelve a producirse, la ciudad tiene que conducirlo de manera más inteligente que como lo hizo en los periodos de expansión del pasado, cuando el desarrollo se produjo en forma desordenada en toda la ciudad.
El camino por delante
Una de las razones por las que la ciudad y sus habitantes estaban listos para un documento como Detroit Future City fue la comprensión profunda de que los problemas de Detroit se debieron a la desindustrialización y el crecimiento suburbano desordenado. “Los residentes comenzaron a comprender que en realidad estaban subsidiando el crecimiento desordenado y la desinversión. Comenzaron a pensar en maneras de cambiar estos sistemas para que fueran más eficientes”, dijo Griffin.
Mientras este artículo se estaba preparando para su publicación, Detroit dio otro paso gigante para revitalizar sus actividades de planificación, que se encontraban en hibernación desde hace tiempo. El alcalde Duggan anunció que había contratado a Maurice Cox, el sumamente considerado director de Tulane City Center, un centro de recursos de diseño comunitario para Nueva Orleáns, y vicedecano de Community Engagement (Participación comunitaria) en la Facultad de Arquitectura de la Universidad de Tulane, como nuevo director de planificación de Detroit. En Nueva Orleáns, Cox facilita una amplia gama de alianzas entre la Universidad de Tulane, la Autoridad de Revitalización de Nueva Orleáns y la Ciudad de Nueva Orleáns. En Detroit, entre otras actividades, ayudará a convertir algunos de los marcos de referencia generales de Detroit Future City en recomendaciones de planificación específicas.
Si la planificación innovadora está otra vez de moda, como parece ser, es más descentralizada, menos enfocada en grandes proyectos y más en sintonía con las condiciones reales, que podrían demandar soluciones distintas en cada barrio. Y la cantidad de voces que se escuchan en los debates de planificación es mayor que nunca. Quizá la contribución final y más importante de Detroit Future City ha sido la de incorporar a los barrios y ciudadanos al mismo nivel que a los planificadores profesionales de gran prestigio para decidir la dirección futura de la ciudad.
En efecto, Detroit Future City ha inaugurado una nueva era de planificación, y no se parecerá casi o nada a la de la era de Blessing. “La planificación ciertamente ha resurgido, pero es fundamentalmente distinta de lo que fue hace 50 años”, dice Kinkead. “En las décadas de 1950 y 1960, los objetivos de planificación amplios de la ciudad eran frecuentemente la manifestación de una elite municipal gubernamental”.
“Para que la ciudad avance, hacen falta todos”, dice Kinkead. “No se trata sólo de Detroit Future City. No se trata sólo del gobierno. No se trata sólo del sector empresarial. Se trata de todos ellos trabajando juntos”.
John Gallagher cubre temas de desarrollo urbano para el Detroit Free Press. Sus libros Reimagining Detroit: Opportunities for Redefining an American City (Imaginando un Detroit nuevo: Oportunidades para redefinir una ciudad norteamericana) y Revolution Detroit: Strategies for Urban Reinvention (Revolución en Detroit: Estrategias para una reinvención urbana) se pueden obtener de Wayne State University Press.
Referencias
Detroit Future City. 2012. Detroit Future City: 2012 Detroit Strategic Framework Plan. Detroit, MI: Inland Press.
Mallach, Alan and Lavea Brachman. 2013. Regenerating America’s Legacy Cities. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Skidmore, Mark. 2014. “Will a Greenbelt Help to Shrink Detroit’s Wasteland?” Land Lines 26 (4): 8–17.
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The urban landscape typical of many small and medium-sized Italian cities is filled with historical richness but also with more recent incoherent and contradictory development patterns. As a result, planners are actively adopting new ideas and theories about urban planning and are studying policies and practices about open space from colleagues in other countries.
The concept of quality of life is a common theme in European planning programs seeking to improve the image and functionality of neighborhoods. This idea normally represents a complex set of values to describe socio-economic conditions, but it can also be a useful instrument to set policies, implement strategies, improve landscapes and preserve open spaces. As the quality of life in many Italian cities has improved over the past ten years, attention to the needs of urban settlements has shifted from the central historical districts to the peripheries. Smaller suburban and rural communities now are demanding better living conditions and enhanced local identity through broad-based citizen participation in urban planning and design projects.
England, France and the United States, in particular, provide inspiration to Italian planners and public officials concerned about how to better integrate urban planning and the natural landscape. The loss of what had been an important cultural tradition in Italy has resulted in a more simplified and standardized urban architectural language and a lack of consideration for open space as either a valuable natural resource or an opportunity for economic and cultural growth.
The European Union (EU) is also influencing important reforms in many aspects of governance and public administration. For example, Italy’s regions, which have long been the dominant level of local government, are managing their territories with more sophisticated planning techniques based on the principles of sustainable development. At the same time, recently passed national fiscal and land taxation reforms are helping the municipalities create new resources and policies for housing rehabilitation and for public services and infrastructure, such as schools, parks and sports facilities. For example, the Regional Government of Tuscany, through its 1995 Urban Planning and Development Act, has begun a number of institutional and administrative changes, including new planning tools and public grants that have encouraged urban regeneration projects and private-public partnerships to support their costs.
The Center for Urban Research (CRU) of the Department of Architecture at the University of Ferrara has been involved in many projects promoted by both the regional and the national governments. Most address both training programs for public officials and private professionals and initiatives to disseminate “best practices” in urban planning and land use. In the last few years, the Center has consulted with many municipalities, including Ferrara in the Emilia-Romagna region and Massa Marittima in Tuscany. While recognizing the different histories and needs of these two cities, the Center is helping their municipal authorities find new opportunities for economic and social development and for enhancing their quality of life.
Ferrara
Located between Venice and Bologna in the Po Valley close to the river delta, Ferrara currently has about 120,000 inhabitants. The city’s main development can be dated to the medieval period, but important transformations were introduced during the Renaissance by the Duke d’Este. Ferrara’s distinctive network of streets, squares, gardens and buildings owe their design to the Duke, who in 1492 implemented the so-called “Addizione Erculea,” which can be considered the first modern urban plan in Europe.
The basic traits of the urban fabric have not changed much since then. The historical center, enclosed inside a system of walls, is still well preserved, and bicycles and pedestrians still outnumber cars. During the winter the fog often softens the buildings, giving the city a magical appearance, and the pace of life slows down as in ancient times. Ferrara also has strong traditions with agriculture and water, including the Po River, the delta and lagoons along the coast, and the extensive network of drainage and irrigation canals.
The city’s beauty and sense of magic have influenced artists since the Renaissance, and Ferrara is home to one of the oldest and finest Italian universities, which is small but exerts an influential role in city life. At present, most jobs in the district are connected with government functions, education, research and design, medical services, agriculture-related industries and tourism. Ferrara’s relative isolation with respect to the Italian “grand tour” has enabled the city to develop balanced cultural tourism policies over the years.
The Barco, a public park designed for the Duke d’Este as a private hunting area, offers the city an interesting opportunity to link urban planning and open space development. This semi-rural landscape is enclosed by the town walls, the Po River and a large industrial petrol-chemical factory. Supported by a special regional grant for urban rehabilitation, CRU is beginning research and planning for this project, which will also involve private sector contributions to help realize this recreational and open space resource for the city.
Another important local government goal is to use the urban environment and surrounding landscape as elements to improve economic growth. The project involves extending the traditional idea of cultural tourism beyond the historic city to include a network of small rural communities. Visitors to Ferrara and the Po River Delta Park will thus have the opportunity to discover ancient villas, marvelous natural landscapes and archeological settlements, as well as inns, restaurants and other amenities throughout the region. At the same time, young people who do not want traditional jobs in farming and fishing will be able to find different employment opportunities and more reasons to stay in their towns. To accomplish this goal, the project is using a variety of planning strategies, including some EU measures that support economic regeneration through training courses and start-up enterprises.
Foreseeable constraints on the success of this project may come from some local residents who consider agriculture their only possible economic resource, a mentality strongly rooted in history. From the Renaissance until World War Two, people from other, poorer regions of Italy were brought to the Po valley to transform the wetlands into agricultural fields. Many of the original workers have become owners of small and mid-sized farms, and they fear the loss of their rights and traditions, even though the farm produce is of poor quality and it is very expensive to maintain flood controls over the fields. Winning the trust of both urban and rural residents is a challenge that will require collaboration to increase the quality of life of residents throughout the region.
Massa Marittima
Massa Marittima is a small city in Tuscany with a population of about 10,000, sixty percent of whom live in small outlying towns. It also is the capital of the Colline Metallifere (Metal Hills) district, where for almost four thousand years silver, copper, and iron mines have operated continuously. Mining started in the Bronze Age and continued throughout the Etruscan, Roman, and medieval eras, through the Siena domination and the Medici and Lorraine eras, until the present generation of large industrial corporations. Populonia, one of the most important Etruscan industrial centers, is twenty miles from Massa Marittima, and archeological remains are found near the steel center of Piombino.
The free commune of Massa Marittima passed the oldest known mining laws in the Western world at the beginning of the fourteenth century. The natural environment surrounding the city still bears the signs of this economic history. There are large forests, which once produced timber for the mines and fuel for the furnaces, and the countryside is only partially cultivated. A less attractive sign of this heritage are the highly polluting mine waste sites.
Massa Marittima experienced a severe economic and identity crisis when the last operating mine closed ten years ago. The local community was forced to make two major decisions. First, it had to change from being a specialized economy based on difficult but secure jobs and dependence on the mining company, along with a very protective welfare system, to becoming a diversified, dynamic and flexible economy where individual enterprise is central. Second, the residents had to accept tourism as the new main source of employment to take advantage of the most important local resources: the region’s cultural heritage and its natural environment.
As in the case of Ferrara, the relative isolation and the late emergence of a tourism-based economy helped Massa Marittima work out more balanced strategies and policies for its future. In this case the opportunity was offered by the national ministries of Heritage and Environmental Policies to develop a national park for the Colline Metallifere district. The Massa Marittima city government asked the CRU to research this program using national and EU plans and grants. The core concept is an open-air museum of local history, which could help preserve the natural environment and also create new jobs for the young people, who have few employment alternatives.
One of the most important tasks in managing the new national park is to create a regional network of economic activities, facilities and public services related to both cultural tourism and the concept of environmentally sustainable development, based on EU economic measures. By sharing these resources, the towns can reduce local competition and maximize the benefits to all residents. The core of the CRU’s proposal is to create new opportunities for cooperation among different levels of public administration and public-private partnerships to promote and finance projects of public interest, such as infrastructure, sports facilities, urban and rural parks, and other resources. A final decision on a national grant to fund the Massa Marittima project is expected in March from the Ministry of Public Works.
These two case studies represent the kinds of complex planning problems that are on the agendas of many local governments throughout Italy. Learning from the best practices and examples of other countries is one of the methods that Italian planners and researchers are using to implement innovative approaches to planning the future of Italy’s historic landscape.
____________ Francesca Leder is professor of urban theories in the Department of Architecture at the University of Ferrara. She was a visiting fellow of the Lincoln Institute during the fall of 1999 to study American planning practices regarding urban parks and open space.
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Decades before Henry George made a passionate case for the “single tax” in Progress and Poverty, the classical economists had recognized that, in theory, the land value tax was almost the perfect tax. There was a strong moral basis for the land value tax—land value increased over time because of growth in population and improvements made by the community, either as utility infrastructure or transportation investments by government and the private sector.
Today, many scholars and practitioners question whether land value tax is a serious contender as a revenue source. But, whatever its political potential may be, economists continue to find the theoretical case for land value tax compelling. This article examines the efficiency of the land value tax as well as land value tax as a substitute for other taxes;
Edwin Mills examines the issue of land value tax in the context of an urban economy, showing that the land value tax is indeed efficient in its effects on land use, as claimed.
Thomas Nechyba explores the land value tax in the context of a general model of the entire economy. He develops what is known as a “computable general equilibrium model” that quantitatively describes the changes in the macro-economy that will occur with the substitution of the land value tax for income taxation.
Author of this article, Dick Netzer, argues that, although the empirical evidence on land values is poor, some reasonable estimates suggest that, at least in the United States, the land value tax could replace the conventional local property tax at reasonable tax rates.
Andrew Reschovsky points out that the current balmy climate for state and local finance in the United States is likely to change radically, for the worse. State governments may be looking for substantial additional revenues. Is the land value tax the right, or the likely, choice for hard-pressed state governments?
Roy Bahl reviews the many difficulties and deficiencies in the use of property taxes by local governments in both developing countries and former Communist countries.
Edward Wolff suggests that substitution of the land value tax for the federal individual income tax would make the U.S. tax system less rather than more progressive with respect to income.
Decades before Henry George made a passionate case for the “single tax” in Progress and Poverty (published in 1879), the classical economists had recognized that, in theory, the land value tax was almost the perfect tax. Unlike other taxes, it causes no distortions in economic decision making and therefore does not lower the efficiency of a market economy in allocating resources. Also, it was obvious in the nineteenth century that a tax on the value of land would be highly progressive.
There was a strong moral basis for the land value tax, as well. Land value increased over time because of growth in population and improvements made by the community, either in the form of utility infrastructure or transportation investments by government and the private sector. Individual landowners did nothing to increase the value of their own land but rather realized “unearned increments” over time, unlike those who contributed labor and capital to production and thus earned their compensation.
In George’s day there was little question that the tax could provide adequate revenue, at least in the United States where the role of government was small-no more than a tenth as important relative to gross domestic product as it today. Virtually all government services were supplied by local governments, which relied entirely on property taxes. Today, many scholars and practitioners question whether land value taxation is a serious contender as an important revenue source. But, whatever its political potential may be, economists continue to find the theoretical case for land value taxation compelling.
In January, the Lincoln Institute sponsored a conference to address these issues: “Land Value Taxation in Contemporary Societies: Can It and Will It Work?” In the opening paper, William Fischel focuses on the special nature of local government in this country, stressing its importance as an instrument of enhancing property values within communities. He argues that, in pursuing that role, local land use controls actually achieve substantial efficiency advantages by more closely matching consumer preferences to local government services and taxes. This is what economists refer to as the Tiebout-Hamilton model.
Fischel maintains that there is substantial justice in this outcome, which might be improved only marginally by land value taxation. That is, land use controls permit local governments to appropriate much of the value generated by community growth. Moreover, this system is widely used, which argues that it is more workable than land value taxation, although the latter is, in principle, more fair.
Efficiency of the Land Value Tax
Two papers treated the efficiency characteristics of the land value tax. Edwin Mills examines the issue in the context of an urban economy, showing that the tax is indeed efficient in its effects on land use, as claimed. But he believes that this is immaterial because the land value tax cannot yield more than trivial revenues, even at rates that are so high that the courts would find them to be an unconstitutional “taking” of property. Moreover, it is so difficult to value land properly that the efficiency advantages cannot be realized.
Thomas Nechyba explores the land value tax in the context of a general model of the entire economy. He develops what is known as a “computable general equilibrium model” that quantitatively describes the changes in the macro-economy that will occur with the substitution of the land value tax for income taxation. Given his assumptions, the model predicts that the reduction in taxation of capital will so increase the aggregate amount of capital that the demand for land on which to use the capital will generate substantial increases in land values. That in turn will permit the land value tax to generate considerable revenues at a rate that is not confiscatory. Most economists would consider the significant increases in total national output predicted by the model to be real gains in economic efficiency.
Land Value Taxation as a Substitute for Other Taxes
Another pair of papers examines the land value tax as a substitute for other taxes used by sub-national governments in rich countries. In my own paper I argue that, although the empirical evidence on land values is poor, some reasonable estimates suggest that, at least in the United States, the land value tax could replace the conventional local property tax at reasonable tax rates. But the main thrust of my argument is that those rich countries in which substantial government spending is done by local governments are the most plausible candidates for the use of the land value tax (see Table 1). Furthermore, its use is probably most feasible in those countries familiar with the idea of valuing real property for tax purposes. The combined administrative, compliance and evasion costs of most other taxes are so large that, even if the administrative costs of land value taxation are high, land value taxation is still promising.
Andrew Reschovsky points out that the current balmy climate for state and local finance in the United States is likely to change radically, for the worse, in the not too distant future. For a variety of reasons, state governments in particular may be looking for substantial additional revenues. Is the land value tax the right, or the likely, choice for hard-pressed state governments? He concludes, first, that the economic gains from the adoption of a new land value tax would be modest, compared to increasing the rates of existing state taxes. Second, a land value tax should help improve the equity of the state tax system. Third, he believes that it would add an element of cyclical stability to state revenue systems.
Nevertheless, Reschovsky remains skeptical about the tax on administrative grounds and is not convinced that it can generate enough revenues to replace any important existing state tax source. In the case of large central cities, however, he rates the land value tax somewhat higher as a replacement for existing tax sources, largely because of the probable lack of adverse locational effects. He views it as especially appropriate for those cities like Philadelphia that now receive relatively small percentages of tax revenue from the property tax.
Roy Bahl reviews the many difficulties and deficiencies in the use of property taxes by local governments in both developing countries and former Communist countries. There is widespread agreement that the property tax is the appropriate major local government tax, and in some countries this agreement extends to site value taxation as well. But, Bahl notes, the property tax usually provides negligible revenues, because of low nominal rates, low and inaccurate valuations, and poor collection experience. Almost everywhere, the basic requisites of good administration are lacking. Moreover, the political unpopularity of the tax generally is far greater than in the United States. Nonetheless, the property tax, especially the site value tax variant, is considered the best local revenue source in these countries.
Perhaps the most surprising research finding reported at the conference was the conclusion of Edward Wolff, who has written extensively on the distribution of income and wealth in the United States. He suggests that substitution of the land value tax for the federal individual income tax would make the U.S. tax system less rather than more progressive with respect to income (see Table 2). This result may be explained by the fact that the ratio of the value of land owned to household income rises steeply with the age of the householder. That is, mean household income declines sharply with age after age 54, while the mean value of land owned declines only slowly. On the other hand, a land value tax would be much more progressive with respect to wealth than is the income tax.
Broader Principles and Questions
Nicolaus Tideman, a convinced follower of Henry George, argues that the basic principles of and justifications for land value taxation apply to much more than the problems of land use in cities and suburbs-the usual focus for discussion of this form of taxation. He offers applications to environmental, congestion and population problems and to questions of efficient resource use and economic growth on a worldwide scale. He bases his views on the general principle that “all persons have equal rights to natural opportunities and should therefore pay for their above-average appropriations of natural opportunities.”
Throughout the conference, there was lively disagreement about whether the land value tax could really produce substantial revenues. Some, like Mills, held that it could not even replace the conventional American property tax on land and buildings, much less a substantial portion of other state and local taxes as well. Others, including Tideman, Nechyba and I, presented data that suggested the possibility that land value taxation indeed could be an important factor in the American fiscal system. Participants also discussed the problems of administering a land tax so that tax liabilities actually and accurately reflect the value of individual parcels of land as bare sites, which is essential if the tax is to be a truly efficient one.
The conferees did not produce an agreed answer to the basic conference question, Can and will land value taxation work today? But they made it clear that the question remains a relevant one that deserves serious and continuing attention.
Dick Netzer is professor of economics and public administration in the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service at New York University. He was the conference coordinator and is the editor of a book containing the eight conference papers and the remarks of the formal discussants, which will be published by the Lincoln Institute later this year.
Land Value Taxation in Contemporary Societies: Can It and Will It Work?
Authors of Conference Papers
Roy Bahl, Professor of Economics and Dean, School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University
William A. Fischel, Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College
Edwin Mills, Professor of Real Estate and Finance, Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University
Thomas Nechyba, Professor of Economics, Stanford University
Dick Netzer, Professor of Economics and Public Administration Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service New York University
Andrew Reschovsky, Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Nicolaus Tideman, Professor of Economics, Virginia Polytechnic University
Edward Wolff, Professor of Economics, New York University
Discussants
Alexander Anas, Professor of Economics, State University of New York at Buffalo
Daniel Bromley, Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison Karl Case, Professor of Economics, Wellesley College
Riel Franzsen, Professor of Mercantile Law, University of South Africa
Yolanda Kodrzycki, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Daphne Kenyon, Professor of Economics, Simmons College
Therese McGuire, Professor of Economics, Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois-Chicago
Amy Ellen Schwartz, Professor of Economics, Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service New York University
Robert Schwab, Professor of Economics, University of Maryland
Robert Solow, Professor of Economics, Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
